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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 11:35:37 AM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

However, as science will tell you, if the results of the experiement don't work, the reasons are generally because: 1.  The theory was incorrect (the claim you are making), or 2.  The experiment was faulty.

I'd make the claim that the experiment was faulty.

Something else that you may not understand, is that game theory implies "rational actors", who always make judgements based simply on the "best economic payoff".

Two points:

1.  People are not rational actors.

2.  The "payoff" under negiotation in a "game" may not always be an "economic payoff".  In other words, the payoff may be in other values that humans hold dear.

FirmKY



LOL The experiment is faulty. How convenient!!!! Tell me where an experiement  has worked. If the pay off aren't always financial, explain the pay offs. What you are saying that the results can't be forecast but game theory works because of an infinite number of outcomes. That's bollocks.

< Message edited by meatcleaver -- 3/21/2007 11:36:12 AM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 11:47:16 AM   
FirmhandKY


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No, that's not what I'm saying, and truthfully, I don't believe that you have any interest in understanding either what I am saying or game theory for the simple fact that it supports your partisan interest to not understand.

That's exactly why the BBC show attempted to deny game theory.

Both it and you decry the free markets, and then attempt to go back and discredit it's scientific and philosophical foundations.

In other words, you have a conclusion, and then attempt to go back and justify it.

FirmKY

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 12:26:10 PM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Both it and you decry the free markets, and then attempt to go back and discredit it's scientific and philosophical foundations.



The theory behind applying game theory to society is to improve society for all, ie. everyone gets the pay off they want and therefore a stable society occurs or at least that is what its political supporters claim. If people don't get what they want (though the politicians and its supporters don't say this), those people don't have the power to do anything about it. Stability is still the result either way. Stability at least, is what its proponents claim. The politicians do predict an outcome, an improvement in society for everyone. However, the laugh is and even its proponents appear to disagree with the politicians, they don't appear to make the claim society will be improved, just made stable (which I suppose they would see as an improvement, no doubt for the good of their corporate friends). A stable society is achieved through everyone strategizing against everyone else in the market place. This is not at all lost of the French who describe this type of politics as 'Anglo-Saxon'. They recognize that both Britain and the USA both have the same social problems caused through the way both countries run their economy, ie. for the benefit of the rich...er. I mean free markets.

As I said before, compare France and Britain, you could substitute Britain for the USA, France is heaven compared, even with all its own problems. Which I guess is why the vast majority of French are satisfied with their life style.

< Message edited by meatcleaver -- 3/21/2007 12:32:00 PM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 12:57:56 PM   
littlesarbonn


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I really don't want to get into this argument, but I think you're giving game theory a bad name, mainly by not knowing enough about it. I don't mean that as an insult, so please don't take it as one. Game theory, as you are discussing it, is much older game theory, where you could say that it is based on suppositions and social scientists placing conceptual values on particular outcomes. But we're not in that era anymore.

I'd point you to authors like Robert Axelrod and his later work, not the Evolution of Cooperation, which while a great book and study, is still utilzing more of a social foundation on trying to apply a mathematical quasi-model. However, his later work covers Cultural Adaptation using a stricly mathematic model that is completely scientific to explain some very basic trends that happen in the changing of minds of people by proximity to differences and similarities of opinions to their neighbors. It's completely mathematical in how it works, and it's brilliant just for the math itself. Once applied to the "social" theory, it drives game theory a different direction than it used to be. Originally, you were right. Game theory is an inward approach where social theory drives the math and science. Cultural Adaptation uses mathematics to predict why your next dor neighbor may come to be your friend based on continuing interactions with you. It doesn't necessitate that such interactions will lead to friendship, but it indicates that by continuous messaging back and forth, differences become similarities so that after time, there are more similarities than there are differences. It's the reason why one can argue that two hostile countries next door to each other may hate each other for generations, but if there's enough communication going on between them, subsequent generations may not feel the hostilities that the originals did. But if separation continues, hostility grows because there's not ability for continued similarity growth.


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 1:07:13 PM   
NorthernGent


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1) The programme is built around Nash's theory and the influence it has had on politics. His game theory, in his own words (in the links provided), is built on a vision of humans being driven by self-interest and suspicion. The point is, this theory fitted quite nicely with the desires of influential economists who wanted to see a reduction in public duty and government regulation i.e. the theory that the market can offer everything we need and, thus, there is little room in life for public good. In the early 80s, both Reagan and Thatcher embarked upon this neo-liberal, free market, survival of the fittest approach to the economy and society. That is part of the link with between Nash and politics i.e. the common denominator of self-interest underpinning both Nash's game theory and Reagan and Thatcher's free market economics. The other part is that Nash wasn't alone in his thinking, the people who he was working with (was it the Rand school? - could be wrong on this) took his theories forward. Seminars were held between Thatcher's government and people who had worked in this school and they impressed upon her that the way forward was the free market and reduced government regulation (the reason being because humans work best when looking after no 1 i.e. an equilibrium would be established).

2) The result has been the opposite. We have seen killing on a grand scale (many people either refuse to believe their government could act so callously or make excuses for it, even though it is staring them in the face), we have seen the suspicion and paranoia about Islam - I mean, it's not that long ago you were trying to tell me Islam was taking over Europe (now that is serious paranoia), we're seeing rising wealth gaps and inequality, rising levels of serious crime, jails bursting at the seems, rising use of anti-drepressants, obesity, anti-social behaviour, drug abuse - all of this suspicion and self-interest is not doing Britain or the US much good - I'll say it's because humans need more out of life than buying and selling items and looking after number 1.

3) You say you haven't seen the documentary and then you say you find the documentary insightful.........why don't you watch it and then make a judgement?

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 1:21:20 PM   
NorthernGent


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quote:

ORIGINAL: happypervert

quote:

The problem is, this is all based on gaming theory produced by a man suffering from paranoia and acting in an age of the Cold War and hyper-suspicion


This is stated as if the scientific community consists of sheep who eagerly jump on the bandwagon of any new fangled theory that comes along even if it comes from someone in a straight jacket.



You've read me wrong, then. That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that he, and the school he was involved with, gained prominence because they were promoting exactly the kind of theory that suited right-wing politicians needing some evidence to support their desires for a free market and survival of the fittest culture i.e. his theory, regardless of how widely supported or derided in the scientific community, was hijacked by right-wing economists and politicians.

The point of my paragraph you have quoted is to say this: the supposed evidence of humans being imbued with self-interest and unable to work for the public good is underpinned by a man who was diagnoised as paranoid and his own tests didn't show the results he was expecting - they showed that humans will co-operate when given a choice - his theory was still jumped on by those who wanted "evidence" to suit their political ends.

I'm not sure if you've just misread me or you're instantly on the attack for reasons only you know. If you've misread me, then why don't you watch the programme and then make a judgement (rather than brushing it off as agenda based). If you can find inaccuracies in the programme, then be my guest and post them.

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 2:47:56 PM   
FirmhandKY


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littlesarbonn,

I have to agree with you. We haven't gotten into a detailed discussion of game theory at all.

It's useful in a lot more ways than even what you have mentioned, including in the theory of evolution (read The Selfish Gene by Dawkins).

meatcleaver seems to be dismissing it because it interferes with his anti-capitalist beliefs, not based on any real knowledge of what it is, and how it functions.

The BBC show seems to be doing the same, based on NG's description and what he got out of it.

But "game theory" is nothing more than a mathematical branch of relationships.  You can apply it to many different situations and  environments.

Saying "game theory is wrong" is like saying "algebra is wrong" or "calculus is wrong".

FirmKY

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 3/21/2007 3:08:25 PM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 2:53:45 PM   
NorthernGent


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

The BBC show seems to be doing the same, based on NG's description and what he got out of it.

But "game theory" is nothing more than a mathematical branch of relationships.  You can apply it to many different situations and  environments.



1) The programme relates to Nash's game theory and the relationship with human behaviour (as I've said about 3 times).

2) A wise man would watch it and then make a judgement, rather than a) jump to conclusions about a programme you haven't seen and b) misrepresent my posts.

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 3:18:20 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: NorthernGent

1) The programme relates to Nash's game theory and the relationship with human behaviour (as I've said about 3 times).

2) A wise man would watch it and then make a judgement, rather than a) jump to conclusions about a programme you haven't seen and b) misrepresent my posts.


1.  It's not "Nash's" game theory.

2. I doubt that Nash's equilibrum theorem of game theory was ever applied in political experiments.  He basic thought was that it was always "the best" strategy, in a non-iterative prisoner's dilemma "game" for each side to defect.

This is the "drug dealer" strategy I mentioned earlier.  In the real world of social relationships, where there are continuing relationships, then - as I pointed out - the tit for tat with forgiveness strategy is the most effective.

3.  Even if a politician said he was using "Nash's game theory", it is about like a politician saying he was using "algebraic trigonometry" to solve social problems.  In either case, if someone who understood game theory wasn't involved, the odds of the politician knowing what the hell he was talking about would be slight.

4. A wise man would look at the results of the show, and the conclusions posted about them to understand the effect that the show produces.  Whether or not that result (game theory=bad=basis of free markets) is the intent of the BBC show, it certainly seems to be the impression left with you, wasn't it?

How have I misrepresented your post, NG?

FirmKY

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 3/21/2007 3:57:41 PM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 3:39:43 PM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: littlesarbonn


It's the reason why one can argue that two hostile countries next door to each other may hate each other for generations, but if there's enough communication going on between them, subsequent generations may not feel the hostilities that the originals did. But if separation continues, hostility grows because there's not ability for continued similarity growth.



You don't need mathmatics to work that one out!

The principle behind game theory in social management is that a management sets  a series of targets and rewards to each individual in an organisation for reaching those targets. The idea being that rather than people cooperating in an organisation to make it function for mutual benefit, individuals compete with each other, the result being that the organisation runs more efficiently. According to adherents this same model could be applied to society as a whole so each member in society strategizes in the social market place to get the pay off they want.

Here is where the theory falls down. People set loose as individuals without loyalty to a group, family, colleagues, country, whatever, are subversive. Let's look at a public organisation. An individual is set a target by management (mathmatically worked to be achievable of course), however, management has worked out the target through theory and not practice, it is impossible for management to know all the practicalities of a job. Such as how can a hospital manager know all the practicalities of heart surgury and complications that could interfer with a surgeon's targets? The individual on seeing the target set him, realises that it is unachievable target, if he produces a 100% quality product or service for his target. So he has a dilemma, if he doesn't hit his target he will be penalized, if he hits the target he gets a reward, even if quality isn't 100%. Now the subject thinks, the organisation will show no loyalty towards him if he fails to reach the target so why should he feel any loyalty towards the organisation? The subject is aware he can reach the target if he cuts corners, creatively account his figures and basically fool the management into believing he has reached his target. The management is happy, he's happy and fuck the client, he'll have his bonus and by the time the client complains, hopefully it will be too late and he would have moved on to more fruitful pastures. (This really does happen, the client really does suffer as a consequence. I've seen it and experienced it). Both the management and the worker are fullfilling their targets but the job isn't getting done because no one cares about the client.

In a private company, the targets are commercial so it is all about profit. Let's look at a bus company. A manager has an area and is expected to make $X in that area. The easiest way to make a profit is to cut down on expenditure. That means cut out the low profit routes and lower the wages of staff. (This happens). What is left is an unmotivated driver who is looking for another job who couldn't give a toss about the company's customers and a none existent service for much of the population of that area. However, the manager is returning an increased profit. Follow this logic and you end up with a Thatcher style deregulated bus service as in most British cities, which incidently still requires subsidies for politically sensitive or socially needed areas (so much for the free market providing a service). Or you could have a centrally planned bus service like here that serves the whole community and costs no more in subsidies than British bus services but costs less to use and which people trust. So here, people leave their cars at home and use the buses while in England if you have a car, you wouldn't use a bus. My former brother in law studied public transport management in business studies and used American textbooks and had lectures from an American professor who was supposed to be a leader on such subjects. My brother in law said if they followed the American logic, the way to make a profit is to forget the service, which of course is what happened in Britain and what has not been allowed to happen here.

Just spread this to sort of logic to society as a whole and you have chaos which you have on Britains roads, in its health and education services and generally everywhere where this deseased theory has taken hold. Having lived in France and Germany, there really isn't a substitute for loyalty and no amount of targets and incentives replaces that because it is loyalty that makes one proud of what one provides, greed and individual gain encourages one to subvert the system and gain as much as one can for as little expensditure as possible.

< Message edited by meatcleaver -- 3/21/2007 3:43:34 PM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:03:23 PM   
seeksfemslave


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What little I have been able to glean (sp) about game theory is that its seems to apply mathematical modelling to human interactions where ALL the possible outcomes are known. At least to the modeller. That doesnt seem to be very relevant to real life complex  decision making so I say bin it.

As for  Mrs Thatcher being a game theorist I find that difficult to believe.
What she did do was sell off publicly owned assets, take on the Unions, especially the Miners and try to apply Moneterist controls.
As I understand it in the first two she succeeded in the third she failed completely .

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:05:01 PM   
NorthernGent


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

1.  It's not "Nash's" game theory.



Firmhand, the inventor of game theory is irrelevant in this context. The programme is based around Nash's take on game theory i.e. his application of the theory to human behaviour. Watch it and see.

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

2. I doubt that Nash's equilibrum theorem of game theory was ever applied in political experiments.  He basic thought was that it was always "the best" strategy, in a non-iterative prisoner's delimma "game" for each side to defect.



Watch it and see. Nash is interviewed. He admits his application to human behaviour was swayed by his paranoid schizophrenia.

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

3.  Even if a politician said he was using "Nash's game theory", it is about like a politician saying he was using "algebraic trigonometry" to solve social problems.  In either case, if someone who understood game theory wasn't involved, the odds of the politician knowing what the hell he was talking about would be slight.



Nash's theory of human behaviour was readily taken on board because it appeared to lend weight to the superiority of self-interest over public duty. I doubt politicians even began to attempt to understand it i.e.it was the "evidence" they were required to add credence to their view of the world i.e. free market and self-interest at the expense of government regulation and public duty.

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

4. A wise man would look at the results of the show, and the conclusions posted about them to understand the effect that the show produces.  Whether or not that result (game theory=bad=basis of free markets) is the intent of the BBC show, it certainly seems to be the impression left with you, wasn't it?

How have I misrepresented your post, NG?



You're misrepresenting my post in your point above. I'm not offering an opinion on game theory. It is Nash's application to human behaviour which underpins my post and the programme. Watch it and see. Whilst suffering from paranoid schizophrenia, he attempted to apply game theory to human behaviour. He concluded that we're all driven by self-interest and suspicious of one another. This opened the door for reduced government regulation and the free market - underpinned by Nash's application to human behaviour.

Watch it, it's interesting. If you don't agree with it, then fine.

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:15:57 PM   
seeksfemslave


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So people who involve themselves in public duty are not  self interested.
Most would be unemployed if they weren't so involved.

Does game theory clarify that fact ?

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:29:10 PM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

So people who involve themselves in public duty are not  self interested.
Most would be unemployed if they weren't so involved.

Does game theory clarify that fact ?


Seeks- My ex worked in the City (of London) for a large accountants, not the one that went belly up but it was a case of  'there for the grace of god go I'.  Her manager told her to maximise profits because if she didn't meet her targets and was in the same position next year she would be seen as dead wood. Therefore she should pay little attention to anything that would mature in 18 months time because they would have both moved on and if there were any negative consequences it would be for others to pick up the pieces. Look after No.1, that is game theory in a nutshell.

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:39:31 PM   
seeksfemslave


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Only joking MC but you constantly tell us how she did you wrong, so maybe she already operated in the way her manager wanted lol

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:43:53 PM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

Only joking MC but you constantly tell us how she did you wrong, so maybe she already operated in the way her manager wanted lol


No. That was someone else. My ex and I are close buddies to this day. We just realised we wanted to plough different furrows and wished the best to each other and went our separate ways.

Damn, she made one hell of a fortune in the City and she said herself, it was easier than doing a proper job!

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 4:54:32 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: NorthernGent

Firmhand, the inventor of game theory is irrelevant in this context. The programme is based around Nash's take on game theory i.e. his application of the theory to human behaviour. Watch it and see.

Watch it and see. Nash is interviewed. He admits his application to human behaviour was swayed by his paranoid schizophrenia.

Nash's theory of human behaviour was readily taken on board because it appeared to lend weight to the superiority of self-interest over public duty. I doubt politicians even began to attempt to understand it i.e.it was the "evidence" they were required to add credence to their view of the world i.e. free market and self-interest at the expense of government regulation and public duty.

You're misrepresenting my post in your point above. I'm not offering an opinion on game theory. It is Nash's application to human behaviour which underpins my post and the programme. Watch it and see. Whilst suffering from paranoid schizophrenia, he attempted to apply game theory to human behaviour. He concluded that we're all driven by self-interest and suspicious of one another. This opened the door for reduced government regulation and the free market - underpinned by Nash's application to human behaviour.

Watch it, it's interesting. If you don't agree with it, then fine.


IF:

Firmhand, the inventor of game theory is irrelevant in this context.

Then WHY:

Nash is interviewed. He admits his application to human behaviour was swayed by his paranoid schizophrenia.

AND:

Whilst suffering from paranoid schizophrenia, he attempted to apply game theory to human behaviour.

??

I don't claim to be an expert on game theory.  I do consider myself familiar with the scientific method (at least, compared to the majority of people who post on CM).

I also consider myself familar with methods of logic and debate and with propaganda techniques.

You say, ignore the source, yet constantly denigrate the source to support your thesis that there is something inherently wrong with game theory.

You can't logically have it both ways.  And that's just the start with what is wrong with what you and the BBC are saying on the subject.

FirmKY

< Message edited by FirmhandKY -- 3/21/2007 4:55:38 PM >


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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 5:16:18 PM   
NorthernGent


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Have a close read, as close an inspection as it takes....you'll realise you are misconstruing my post.

Here's a clue - Nash in not the inventor of game theory, but he did apply game theory to human behaviour and he was suffering from paranoid schizoprhenia at the time.

To be honest, I reckon we'll call this a day because it's too much like hard work with you Firmhand....there are concepts to be discussed and you're fucking around with misconstruing posts.

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 5:28:46 PM   
FirmhandKY


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No hard feelings, NG, but I don't think I'm misconstruing anything.  I just don't agree with either your point or with the BBC's efforts to deny the validity of free markets based on the fact that Nash admits to being mentally ill.

That is the first point in an attempt to discredit free markets. 

The next step is that you wish to claim somehow, since game theory is flawed, the use of it in British politics is the reason for some of the failures in your society.

 Because - according to your thesis - "game theory" teaches that everyone is only selfish and the best strategy (according to your interpretation of game theory) is to always "defect" - take without regard for others.

That's not what game theory teaches.  It teaches that only selfish, or only altruistic strategies are not very productive in the long run, and that a strategy of cooperation with occasional defections is the best strategy.

I gave you some links early in the discussion.  Have you read any of them?

FirmKY

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RE: John Nash/Gaming Theory/Politics - 3/21/2007 6:38:49 PM   
meatcleaver


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

The next step is that you wish to claim somehow, since game theory is flawed, the use of it in British politics is the reason for some of the failures in your society.



Britain has all the same problems as American society, in fact the more British society is operated on the American model the similar it gets and the more Britain's social problems take on the equivalent scale as the USA's. If Britain uses game theory in a flawed way so does America because Britain is fast becoming the mirror image of America and the less like a European country.

How come ENRON and Arthur Anderson collapsed? Self interest. The idea that the markets can regulate themselves. Fuck the poor fools that lost their pensions, they should have been more savvy and had a better strategy in the game.  There is nothing wrong with how Britain is applying game theory, the problem is with the theory and Germany and France understand that and put their citizens before corporations.

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