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SoftBonds -> RE: Many school districts now serving: breakfast, lunch and dinner! (4/10/2012 4:34:06 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: kalikshama quote:
You ever read the freakonomics thing about how Roe-v-Wade lowered the crime rate 18 years later? They even showed that the crime drop happened earlier in states that allowed abortion before Roe-v-Wade. Interesting. It just boggles my mind that people who abhor abortion aren't pro contraception. (Statistically speaking; I know there are exceptions here.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago and John Donohue of Yale University revived discussion of this claim with their 2001 paper "The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime". Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in 1992. Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted aborted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in 1995. These would have been the peak crime-committing years of the unborn children. The authors argue that states that had abortion legalized earlier and more widespread should have the earliest reductions in crime. Donohue and Levitt's study indicates that this indeed has happened: Alaska, California, Hawaii, New York, and Washington experienced steeper drops in crime, and had legalized abortion before Roe v. Wade. Further, states with a high abortion rate have experienced a greater reduction in crime, when corrected for factors like average income.[3] Finally, studies in Canada and Australia purport to have established a correlation between legalized abortion and overall crime reduction.[3] The study was criticized by various authors, including a 2005 article by Christopher Foote and Christopher Goetz, in which the pair claim that a computer error in Levitt and Donahue's statistical analysis lead to an artificially inflated relationship between legalized abortion and crime reduction. Once other crime-associated factors were properly controlled for, the effect of abortion on arrests was reduced by about half. Foote and Goetz also criticize Levitt and Donahue's use of arrest totals rather than arrests per capita, which takes population size into account. Using Census Bureau population estimates, Foote and Goetz repeated the analysis using arrest rates in place of simple arrest totals, and found that the effect of abortion disappeared entirely.[4] In 2005 Levitt published rebuttal to these criticisms in which he re-ran his numbers to address the shortcomings and variables missing from the original study. The new results are nearly identical to those of the original study. Levitt posits that any reasonable use of the data available reinforces the results of the original 2001 paper.[5] Kalik, did you ever read the study of the Polish Orphanage? Regarding what happens when you don't hug/hold kids? Given what you said in an earlier post about more aggressive/less forgiving parenting of unwanted children, I wonder if that is the ultimate cause of the increased crime effect. If you don't want your kid, and are forced to have him anyway, you don't raise him to be social, and you get a sociopath...
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