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Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In This ... - 9/13/2011 7:33:31 PM   
lovmuffin


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Status: offline 		   Early results have republican Bob Turner up 56% to 43% over his democratic opponent Weprin.  2 different polls had Turner up by 6% yesterday in this 3 to 1 democratic district.  Weprin tried to paint Turner as a Tea Party extremist. I wonder how that's going to work out. It's said this election is a referendum on Obama who has a dismal 31% approval rating here.  It's not over yet but looks more like Turner is going to win.


Hold your breath and stay tuned for further results.

< Message edited by lovmuffin -- 9/13/2011 7:36:31 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 7:38:16 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Status: offline 		Those results are after about 600 votes were counted. It hasnt even started, much less looking like either one will win. Weprin is ahead by 20 votes right now.

However, any question as to whether this is a referendum on Obama is silly. Polls show 3 major issues in the election: Spending, Social Security and policy on Israel. A 3 point LOSS for the GOP is a 19 point swing in their favor. If its that close, this is an earthquake for the Dems, and 2012 will be the tsunami. Any thought that they can hold the Senate is wishful thinking at best, any thought that they can take back the House is delusional.

10:34 update with a bit above 8% counted now has Turner up 52:47.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 9/13/2011 7:41:58 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 7:43:58 PM   
lovmuffin


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Status: offline 		I should have stated *way early results* and that's why I'm holding my breath. I'm still going with the glass half full.


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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 7:45:42 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

I should have stated *way early results* and that's why I'm holding my breath. I'm still going with the glass half full.



Oh, I am too...hence my tsunami comment!

15% in.....10 point lead for Turner!

25% in....2 point lead for Turner :( The good news is that Queens is 50/50 and much more heavily counted. Brooklyn should be heavier for Turner and is just starting to come in.

You heard it here first: Im calling it for Turner based on the 11:34 update. Almost 2/3 of Queens in and its a virtual tie. Only 1/3 of Brooklyn in and Turner has a 2700 vote lead. No way does he make up that much unless the Brooklyn districts reported are totally out of whack to the overall Brooklyn profile.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 9/13/2011 8:44:40 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 8:30:36 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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Status: offline 		Gonna be a nailbiter but it looks good. With 1/2 of Queens in Turner is down there by 6%. If that holds up he loses Queens by about 2500 votes out of 46,000. Brooklyn is about 1/3 the voters of Queens (in this District) so if turnouts are roughly the same Turner has to pick up 2500 votes out of about 15,000, or 58% to 42%. That should be there for him, starting out with a 70:30 lead.

The biggest news out of this would be Brooklyn if it holds up at 70:30, a 22% swing from 48:52 just 10 months ago. That is the pro- Israel vote talking and could spell even bigger problems for Obama in Fla. than he was believed to have.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 9/13/2011 8:38:30 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 8:31:26 PM   
lovmuffin


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Status: offline 		I'm still holding my breath but that's good so far. I'll check it out again as soon as this show I'm watching is over. It will keep my mind off of it for awhile.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 8:46:00 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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You heard it here first: Im calling it for Turner based on the 11:34 update. Almost 2/3 of Queens in and its a virtual tie. Only 1/3 of Brooklyn in and Turner has a 2700 vote lead. No way does he make up that much unless the Brooklyn districts reported are totally out of whack to the overall Brooklyn profile.

AP calls it for Turner based on the 11:55 count. What took em so long???

Dems, start building your Ark. 2012 is going to be uglier for you than 2010. A donkey seat for 90 years, gone, lmao.



< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 9/13/2011 9:01:34 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 9:30:14 PM   
lovmuffin


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Status: offline 		Yep, It's Turner for sure. I think I felt a rain drop. LMAO and gloating.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 9:45:25 PM   
TheHeretic


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Status: offline 		Hmmm.  Safe seats just don't seem so safe, anymore.  Now the election to replace Wu is basically the west side of Portland, Or.  If that goes to a Republican too...

Spending, Social Security, and Israel might have been at the top of the polls, but rather obviously, a district that has gone D for decades was willing to even listen to a Republican to begin with, and then (according to AP's projection) actually elect one.  I don't think it qualifies as a referendum, but it is a damn good indicator of mood.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 9:56:12 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Hmmm.  Safe seats just don't seem so safe, anymore.  Now the election to replace Wu is basically the west side of Portland, Or.  If that goes to a Republican too...

Spending, Social Security, and Israel might have been at the top of the polls, but rather obviously, a district that has gone D for decades was willing to even listen to a Republican to begin with, and then (according to AP's projection) actually elect one.  I don't think it qualifies as a referendum, but it is a damn good indicator of mood.


Not enough of an indicator of general discontent for a Dem to take Nevada CD2.

As I said, the real story in NY is the pro-Israel vote and what that could mean for Fla. While NY9 is more Zionist than the Fla Jewish population overall, its still not a state where Obama can afford any slippage, and the damage he's done to his chances there could well be irreparable.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 9:56:27 PM   
Owner59


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Status: offline 		Liberals take safe republican seats too so anythings possible.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/05/24/democrat-takes-safe-gop-n-y-house-seat/

But right now it`s 51 to 48 and a 5% MOE,that`s a tie.

We`ll see.

I predict con-chest-thumping if they win and con-forgotten/Turner who?,... if they lose.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 9/13/2011 9:58:00 PM >

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/13/2011 10:27:16 PM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

Liberals take safe republican seats too so anythings possible.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/05/24/democrat-takes-safe-gop-n-y-house-seat/

But right now it`s 51 to 48 and a 5% MOE,that`s a tie.

We`ll see.

I predict con-chest-thumping if they win and con-forgotten/Turner who?,... if they lose.


WTF are you talking about. Its over lol. 51:48 was the Queens margin for Weprin. Overall it was 54:46. And there is no "MOE" in an actual election.

The Hochul seat was 4 months ago..before the deficit debate, before the jobs bill, and right after the bin Laden bump. A different galaxy from where things are now.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 1:32:16 AM   
tazzygirl


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Status: offline 		Isnt this seat up for redistricting?

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 1:33:10 AM   
StrangerThan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

Liberals take safe republican seats too so anythings possible.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/05/24/democrat-takes-safe-gop-n-y-house-seat/

But right now it`s 51 to 48 and a 5% MOE,that`s a tie.

We`ll see.

I predict con-chest-thumping if they win and con-forgotten/Turner who?,... if they lose.


WTF are you talking about. Its over lol. 51:48 was the Queens margin for Weprin. Overall it was 54:46. And there is no "MOE" in an actual election.

The Hochul seat was 4 months ago..before the deficit debate, before the jobs bill, and right after the bin Laden bump. A different galaxy from where things are now.


Oh come on wilbur, you know one of the flakes will appear with 14 pages of research showing how either A) the election was rigged, B) how Catholics and Jews are racist, or C) that Israel is a criminal state that should simply sit quietly while they are slaughtered. I know, C doesn't have anything to do with the election but hell, liberals are like flies. They come from all directions.

Give it a bit, and fargle will probably find something that implies all three and run it with a STUPID COCKSUCKING REPUBLICAN headline.




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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 1:57:44 AM   
tazzygirl


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Status: offline 		Personally, I think its rather fatuous to believe one seat can call a future election season.... lol... but thats just me.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 3:08:27 AM   
StrangerThan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Isnt this seat up for redistricting?


From what I read, that's part of the reason Democrats were somewhat lackadaisical about this fight until the last couple of weeks. Weprin was to go quietly into the good night, and offer no challenges. It wasn't until they realized they might actually lose that they started dumping cash into it, and sending in who else? Clinton.

Instead the bright stars ended up throwing half a million into advertising in a losing battle and blasting voters with robo-calls featuring Clinton and Cuomo. It's like... I don't even know what to call it, grand hypocrisy maybe, the sum of which was Hey, vote for us so no one will bitch when we try to shove you off into a district where your vote won't matter!!!!!!

Add a charismatic smile with a bright sparkle glinting off teeth, of course.



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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 3:29:10 AM   
Sanity


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Right, this says as much or more about what Obama has done to make Jewish voters finally understand that Democrats are no longer their friends, than anything.

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Not enough of an indicator of general discontent for a Dem to take Nevada CD2.

As I said, the real story in NY is the pro-Israel vote and what that could mean for Fla. While NY9 is more Zionist than the Fla Jewish population overall, its still not a state where Obama can afford any slippage, and the damage he's done to his chances there could well be irreparable.


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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 4:29:49 AM   
Sanity


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From Drudge:

DNC SPIN: NY9 'very difficult district for Democrats'...
Dems have held seat since 1923...

Maybe this belongs in the 1984 thread?


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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 5:53:24 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity



From Drudge:

DNC SPIN: NY9 'very difficult district for Democrats'...
Dems have held seat since 1923...

Maybe this belongs in the 1984 thread?



Debbie Wasserman Schultz of course. Quite possibly the dumbest person to be seen on televesion since Sgt. Schultz in Hogans Heroes.

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RE: Republican Winning To Take Weiners Former Seat In T... - 9/14/2011 6:08:26 AM   
Sanity


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The clown troupe running the DNC replaced Screamin' Howeird Dean with her

Out of the frying pan...




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