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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/30/2008 3:17:15 PM   
happypervert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesFIP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Interesting reference to the effects of massive amounts of volcanic ash in the air. Perhaps we should start stockpiling food and wood.


That is small change compared to what geoscientists believe could happen if Yellowstone went off. Try this:

Toba catastrophe theory


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/30/2008 4:13:31 PM   
Sanity


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I wonder what kind of warning we could expect in the lead up to such a supervolcanic event... what the time line would look like.


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/30/2008 10:42:39 PM   
TheHeretic


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      Interesting.  Whatever is happening seems to be getting faster.  The USGS link I posted at 9:00 last night was showing 74 quakes in the last week.  In a little over 24 hours, the number is up to 175.

      Of course, living well to the south and west of Yellowstone, I pay more attention to a completely different feature of the crust.

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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 3:50:19 AM   
Sanity


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They all catch my attention, but Yellowstone is admittedly a lot closer and also more dear to my heart.

And it's a super volcano. That counts for a lot!

But take Chaiten, for example:

quote:

Chile says Chaiten volcano still poses danger

The government has not dismissed the possibility of relocating the small town and making the whole area a no-go zone for years to come, but many locals have said they want to return to their homes in Chaiten.

"The volcano is still active," Perez-Yoma said. "Given the latest definitive information, we will be making a decision in the coming days."

Chile has the second largest and most active chain of volcanoes in the world after Indonesia.

About 90 percent of the town was flooded in May as volcanic ash caused nearby rivers to breach their banks.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081229/sc_nm/us_chile_volcano_chaiten;_ylt=Av6MLedd6CHR15DNjU6XsiEhANEA


If I see a little blurb about a volcano or an earthquake somewhere, I follow the link and read the full article every time. For the last two years my road trips have been all about volcanos because I'm drawn to them for whatever reason. In 2007 we visited Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Ranier (All in Washington State) and the Sisters volcanos of Oregon.

This year (2008) we went to the Craters of the Moon National Monument and Yellowstone. Next year the plan is to visit Crater Lake, Oregon...


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 4:14:16 AM   
SeeksMaso


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I have watched the episodes about Yellow Stone on the National Geographic Channel and also the episodes about the sere's predictions about the year 2012 on the History Channel.  I am wondering if these two may be related.  The Aztec, Notrousdomas, and others have predicted the "end of time" as the year 2012.  A massive eruption such as the one that is reportedly over 1000 years overdue by Yellowstone would put the world into a New Ice Age and destroy almost everything by blocking the sun for an estimated 1000 years or more.  If Yellowstone and the Chaiten volcanos erupt at nearly the same time, the devistation would be nearly total for the entire world.  I really don't like thinking about this mainly because no one has any solutions or answers to the situations.  It would seem that all we can do is sit and wait for the hand of God to intervene.

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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 5:31:17 AM   
Dargrim


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Ah Disaster Management Time. Knew I was getting my degree for something. Sadly not studied much on Volcanoes,but will pass on what I know about Disaster Management and Volcanos.

Also the top estimate I have heard is 100 years of ash coverage, so most things will die, however 100% Death rate is almost impossible, so good news humanity and life will survive. And probably whales, so vengence for them. Thought the minimums is about 5 years I seem to remember so fairly easy to survive.

The warning depends, it may be a couple of weeks or a few minutes to hours. Clearly the latter will result in the total death of a large surrounding area, simly due to the pyroclastic flow, incinerating all it comes into contact with. Bad times. Means theres less people to eat what little food you have. Good times. With alarger amouint of time you will likely get mass panic, across the world, and likely a complete stop in food exportation. Meaning both our Nations won't be able to feed themselves.

Most modern veichles are going tho have problems. The sort which struggles with mud,the military planes which clouds are to dense for their filters etc.
Food production will be tiny, only the areas with crops good in low light conditions, or equitorial regions will be reasonably  unaffected. As the Doldrums, as air currents should offer them some protection against the ash.

Acid Rain, and posoning of drinking water both likely.

Entirely hash handed response from government very likely, as the American goverments response is likely the same as ours, involving snickering, and mucking about when the topic is brought up. (My lecturer ran an exercise for a groups of civil servants here and got that response.)

So generally very bad, advice has to be make friends with those around you, you'll need them. Pray gun sales drop, or your likely top see roving gangs armed to the teeth, (Something we're less likely to come across with such a high frequency), and start up that home bio engineering thing I saw on here, to make some wheat which undergoes chemeosynthesis rather then photo.

Some may be wrong, as written without sources, though apocolyptic level sources are rare. So apologies in advance feel free to pick holes, in fact I encourage you to, best way of learning/improving ideas and my own defenses.

David

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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 6:14:09 AM   
happypervert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

If I see a little blurb about a volcano or an earthquake somewhere, I follow the link and read the full article every time. For the last two years my road trips have been all about volcanos because I'm drawn to them for whatever reason. In 2007 we visited Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Ranier (All in Washington State) and the Sisters volcanos of Oregon.

This year (2008) we went to the Craters of the Moon National Monument and Yellowstone. Next year the plan is to visit Crater Lake, Oregon...


You might want to check out Mammoth Lakes, CA which sits on the edge of a caldera that's about 20 miles across -- it blew about 700k years ago. In the 1980s they got concerned about new activity after someone noticed that one area of the road had bulged up by 4 feet.  (as I recall -- hazy memory). That's a big 'un -- it's so big it's hard to recognize as a caldera when you're there, though it's obvious when you see it from satellite photos.

link: Long Valley caldera

< Message edited by happypervert -- 12/31/2008 6:20:55 AM >


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 6:32:59 AM   
Sanity


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Wow, thanks for that - it's just a little further South than I planned to go already, and there are off-road-vehicle trails through there, which is awesome.

The Sisters Volcanoes in Oregon may be pregnant too, with another little baby volcano possibly in the oven there:

quote:

The ground near one of the long-dormant Three Sisters volcanoes in the Cascade Mountains of west-central Oregon has risen approximately 10 centimeters in a 10-by-20-km parcel since 1996, meaning that magma or underground lava is slowly flowing into the area, according to a research team from the U.S. Geological Survey.

link


< Message edited by Sanity -- 12/31/2008 6:33:55 AM >


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 6:39:03 AM   
Sanity


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That's really not a bad idea. Could be that the Mormons are on to something - they're pretty famous for stockpiling food. Myself, I always keep about fifty gallons of fresh water on hand and I have enough food to last 2 - 3 months, depending on whether or not the electricity holds. A little more bulk rice, and some more beans couldn't hurt...

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesFIP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Interesting reference to the effects of massive amounts of volcanic ash in the air. Perhaps we should start stockpiling food and wood.


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 8:14:22 AM   
LumusandtheLady


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity

You're a Kuna Kavegirl?

Sweet... 

It's a pity what's happened to that area, how it's just another big city now, or just a suburb really. 


Yep, and since you spelled it right, I can tell you know the area as well. The good old black and gold!

I didn't even recognize it when I got back to Idaho after living in Australia and California. It was too much and I had to get out to the country - hence Owyhee County. Can't get much more rural than that!

Rain


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 8:25:28 AM   
Sanity


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It's still rural there, too, most of it. I love literally getting lost up in the Owyhees with a few cans of extra gas and plenty of other supplies. I always know I'll come out somewhere...

Homedale and Marsing are growing up fast though, because just like most everywhere else subdivisions, strip malls and super stores keep sprouting up just like noxious weeds do. There are even some new subdivisions out around Murphey...


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 12/31/2008 9:15:25 PM   
happypervert


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For fun I compared the sizes of some of the eruptions discussed here along with a few others:

erupted material:
Mt. St. Helens -- 1.2 cubic km
Vesuvius (Pompeii) -- 4 cubic km
Pinatubo -- 10 cubic km
Santorini (1650 BC in the Mediterranean) -- 60 cubic km
Tambora (year without a summer) -- 160 cubic km
Long Valley -- 600 cubic km
Toba -- 2,800 cubic km

It's fun to see maps showing the extent of the ash deposits -- like Mt St Helens left a layer across a stretch of southern Washington, while Toba covered India.

< Message edited by happypervert -- 12/31/2008 9:36:44 PM >


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/1/2009 3:10:56 AM   
susie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


This year (2008) we went to the Craters of the Moon National Monument and Yellowstone. Next year the plan is to visit Crater Lake, Oregon...



Crater Lake is well worth the visit. Its stunning. The colour of the water has to be seen to be believed. The Lodge there has a beautiful balcony where you can sit out looking over the lake covered in a cosy blanket and sip a glass of .wine.

The only bad thing I remember is the trip there from Klamath Falls and our introduction to their "midge problem".

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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/1/2009 6:37:40 AM   
Sanity


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Your post made me curious about how the Yellowstone eruption would compare to the eruptions you listed, and so I started clicking around and I found these interesting bits of information:


quote:

One way of looking at the power of volcanoes is what scientists call the Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) — sort of a Richter scale for eruptions. And like the Richter scale used to measure earthquakes, the power of an eruption increases exponentially from number to number in the VEI index.


The VEI scale runs from zero to eight. The higher the VEI number, the bigger — and less frequent — the eruptions. On one end there are the burbling, rather gentle eruptions that happen on the big island of Hawaii. These happen daily on Earth, and even with their occasional impressive fountains of lava, they rate a zero on the VEI. At the other extreme is the Yellowstone eruption of 2.1 million years ago, which is described on the VEI as an eight: mega-colossal, with a towering ash cloud 10 miles high that pours out at least a thousand cubic miles of ash. That Yellowstone eruption had 10 times the ejected material as a VEI 7 volcano, which modern humans have never seen either.

In fact, the last VEI 7 eruption was in Toba, Indonesia, 74,000 years ago, and it caused such global cooling that some scientists think it nearly drove humans to extinction.

The largest known eruption in the last several thousand years is believed to be that of Tambora, Indonesia, in 1815. It was tens of times more massive an eruption than Mount St. Helens in 1980. Despite pouring out 7 cubic miles of ash and causing short-term global cooling, Tambora was small fry compared with any of Yellowstone's big eruptions, or even the eruption of Toba 74,000 years ago.


http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/supervolcano/under/under_03.html


I also looked up the stats of the Crater Lake eruption. It is estimated to have expelled 50 cubic kilometers of magma, and it was a 7 on the VEI scale.

Now I'm off to find the maps detailing their ash deposits... you are right, it is fun and interesting. Thanks for the feedback!


< Message edited by Sanity -- 1/1/2009 6:39:25 AM >


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/1/2009 7:43:59 AM   
jlf1961


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I do believe I have come up with a plan that would, if successful, end the worry of Yellowstone erupting once and for all.

We borrow 10 nominal yield nuclear devices and put them in a ring around the magma chamber.

We then place them at a depth of 5000 meters, and seal the wells with cement that is designed to bond with living stone.

Then we detonate them and 1 minute intervals in a star pattern to gently rock the volcano back to sleep.....

Of course, if this plan doesnt work, my investments in the winter sports industry would be worth big bucks in a year or two.....


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/1/2009 1:24:27 PM   
Sanity


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Hi Rain

Here's a good but very technical description of much of the volcanic activity that has occurred and that is still occurring between Yellowstone and the volcanoes in the Cascades of Oregon if you're at all interested, including information about how the high desert mountains that we call the Owyhees were formed.

http://www.dtm.ciw.edu/research/HLP/content/view/18/35/

I have a great view of the Owyhees from my computer chair... I guess I kind of take it for granted sometimes. They're all beautifully snow covered at the moment too, on track for a good snowpack this year!


quote:

ORIGINAL: LumusandtheLady

Yep, I grew up in that area. Grew up in Kuna and lived out in the west Treasure Valley (Owyhee County) before moving here to Lumus at the end of May. Used to go hunting and fishing in the Hells Canyon area all the time. I still have my house there and my family is in the Nampa/Caldwell area.

And all the lovely hot springs....... ahhhhh!

Rain



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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/1/2009 8:03:20 PM   
happypervert


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That's interesting how much stuff Crater Lake ejected; thanks for posting it.

That VEI is interesting. It looks like the rankings are base on a number of factors -- for example, Krakatoa went KABOOM and, according to wiki "generated the loudest sound historically reported: the cataclysmic explosion was distinctly heard as far away as Perth in Australia" with a VEI of 6; just 50 years before that, Tambora had a VEI of 7 and ejected about 4 times the material, but could "only" he heard as far away as Sumatra. So it looks to me like Krakatoa was the bigger "explosion", while the other probably erupted for a longer time.

Of course, I wouldn't want to be within 100 miles of any of them when they blew, so I wouldn't quibble about their VEI ratings. heh

Oh, and while looking at other super volcanos I stumbled across this one in southwest Colorado.Ok, so that blew 28 million years ago and is dormant now, but until now I never thought of Colorado as a volcanic area . . . and maybe in another 28 milion years it will be again.


< Message edited by happypervert -- 1/1/2009 8:05:26 PM >


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RE: Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm - 1/2/2009 8:07:14 PM   
Sanity


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Here is a link to an article about the Yellowstone quake swarms at the Newsweek website that I thought was of interest :

The rumbling continues, including 3.5, 3.0 and 3.2 quakes just today


An excerpt::

quote:

Here is a passage on the Yellowstone supervolcano from "A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson. He interviews a Yellowstone geologist, Paul Doss. I don't find it reassuring:


I asked him what caused Yellowstone to blow when it did.

"Don't know. Nobody knows. Volcanoes are strange things. We really don't understand them at all. Vesuvius, in Italy, was active for three hundred years until an eruption in 1944 and then it just stopped. It's been silent ever since. Some volcanologists think that it is recharging in a big way, which is a little worrying because two million people live on or around it. But nobody knows."

"And how much warning would you get if Yellowstone was going to go?"
He shrugged. "Nobody was around the last time it blew, so nobody knows what the warning signs are. Probably you would have swarms of earthquakes and some surface uplift and possibly some changes in the patterns of behavior of the geysers and steam vents, but nobody really knows."

"So it could just blow without warning?"

He nodded thoughtfully. The trouble, he explained, is that nearly all the things that would constitute warning signs already exist in some measure at Yellowstone. "Earthquakes are generally a precursor of volcanic eruptions, but the park already has lots of earthquakes-1,260 of them last year. Most of them are too small to be felt, but they are earthquakes nonetheless."

(More here).



That same story quotes from THIS article, which is on the TIME website:

quote:

Last week, geologists at the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) announced they had recorded a "notable swarm of earthquakes under way since Dec. 26 beneath Yellowstone Lake." The strongest tremor among the hundreds in the past week measured 3.9 on Dec. 27; most of the readings above 2.8 were felt by park employees and visitors around the lake area. The activity relaxed in magnitude early this week but then flexed upward again to top 3.0 by early New Year's Eve. "This December 2008 earthquake sequence is the most intense in this area for some years," YVO reported, "and is centered on the east side of the Yellowstone Caldera," the ancient collapsed volcano beneath Yellowstone Lake. The scientists said they cannot immediately "identify any causative fault or other feature without further analysis."


This activity could have a whole range of consequences. In a study released last year, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said possible hazards could include hydrothermal explosions, when steam breaks through the surface and forms a crater. That has happened 26 times in the park's 127 years of record-keeping. The USGS discounted chances for cataclysmic eruption of the caldera, noting that the hot, active magma chamber below Yellowstone has turned into "largely crystallized mush." But the same study also said: "Depending on the nature and magnitude of a particular hazardous event and the particular time and season when it might occur, 70,000 to more than 100,000 persons could be affected; the most violent events could affect a broader region or even continent-wide areas."

(Full article here).



Here's an article on the USA Today website from 2006 about the growing bulge under Yellowstone Lake:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2006-03-02-yellowstone-bulge_x.htm



< Message edited by Sanity -- 1/2/2009 8:08:30 PM >


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