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John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/28/2008 2:49:57 PM   
Musicmystery


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Poor reasoning is hardly unusual in political arguments, but among the poorest is the ire expressed by some of Hillary Clinton’s disappointed supporters.

The argument, such as it is, runs that since the media treated Senator Clinton poorly, her supporters will vote for McCain instead of Obama.

No, seriously—they say this with straight faces and pious intensity.

Apparently this must be made explicit—Obama is not a media mogul. He does not control it, and to blame him (or attempt to punish him) for the media’s actions is ridiculous. Also bizarre about this claim is that these Sen. Clinton supporters apparently feel she’s a helpless girl at the mercy of the big bad powers that be—and that somehow these powers are the media. Come on, Sen. Clinton is a strong and politically astute politician—hardly a victim. And reporters’ lackluster performance as the Bush administration has run roughshod over the Constitution and blatantly lied to the U.S. people is not exactly an indication of the media’s power—dupes would be closer to truth. Or perhaps spineless.

Meanwhile Obama has assiduously avoided presenting himself as the “black candidate,” running instead on his appeal and ideas. Imagine that.

The simple truth is that Clinton lost the primary because she came up against a superior candidate, one the voters preferred. (Yes, she’s claimed she won the “popular vote,” but no one has been able to see how she came up with that conclusion, as Obama won more votes and more delegates.)

But she has more experience? Not much. She’s a second term senator, but presents herself having decades of national politics experience—when she spent most of it in private practice. (And if First Lady counts, then does anyone find Laura Bush a prime presidential candidate?)

Let’s be honest---if these voters wanted the most experienced candidate, they’d have voted for Bill Richardson—long experience, popular, and Hispanic, so still historic (if that’s the point for these voters).

These voters are at least well matched with their preferred candidate—her performance refusing to admit obvious defeat in the primary and her ungracious speech “backing” Obama was shameful.

In short, this comes down to “sore loser.” OK, human---but at what cost? I’d have considered McCain at one point, eight years ago, and I don’t doubt that he’s a good man, but his record and views during the Bush administration have evolved to present a poor candidate.

Military operations seemed to have tipped the balance. McCain maintains that we could have won Vietnam if we’d only have stayed. Perhaps true, but what he misses is at what cost in both funding and lives, without considering everything we’d have to sacrifice just for the sake of winning. This same blind egoism drives his take on Iraq--above all else, he wants to win, no matter the cost, ignoring several other serious problems.

This irrational machoism pops up again in his insistence that we should never talk to countries with which we have conflicts, specifically Iran, which McCain ridicules as “making nice to our enemies.” But since when did talks equal “making nice”? If you get a “talking-to,” for example, it’s not a pleasant experience. We talked to the Soviet Union all during the Cold War--and more than once prevented nuclear war by doing so. And talking doesn’t mean we agree or concede. It means we attempt to find acceptable middle ground, or perhaps even persuade the Iranians to follow a preferable course.

The distortions aren’t limited to foreign policy. McCain has attacked Obama’s plan to help poorer families with a tax bracket occurring at $200,000, claiming this will hurt small businesses and cost jobs. McCain, however, ignores that those small business costs are already legitimate business liabilities, and so are deducted before counting as earned income--the $200,000 would be net income earned AFTER those employment expenses are already paid.

McCain also repeats the tax cut mantra--we must cut taxes to stimulate the economy. This, of course, ignores that the previous tax cuts haven’t accomplish that; to the contrary, they’ve contributed to a soaring national debt that has devalued the dollar and helped tighten credit markets. Further, just as in the Reagan years, when the U.S. went from being the largest creditor nation to being the largest debtor nation, with 25% of our assets moving into foreign hands, our current spending habit is being financed primarily by China. Hardly contributes to the independence from foreign interests. Plus, all during the economic boom of the 1990s, the mantra was that we have to cut taxes to give the money back to the American taxpayers. So which is it? Cut taxes in good times. Cut taxes in bad times. Anybody suspect they don’t particularly care about the economy (or just about the economic welfare of their wealthy campaign contributors)? McCain has admitted it’s not his strong suit. He’s right on that point, at least. But certainly not a “maverick.”

Then there’s McCain’s famed claim of reaching across the aisle. It’s true! Trouble is, he hasn’t accomplished anything meaningful. When George McGovern and Bob Dole reached across the isle, they created the school lunch program, ensuring that every school child in America got at least one nutritious hot meal a day. McCain reached out for immigration reform that doesn’t work.

His bipartisan attempts at campaign finance reform have been equally unrealistic. Reality is, stakes are high in national politics, and since people (and groups) have the right to support candidates of their choice, all new regulations will ever accomplish is moving the money from one avenue to another. Further, his position is disingenuous. Barack Obama offered to rely on public financing if McCain would do--and McCain is the one who refused (and foolishly at that, since the Obama campaign has much, much more cash). Is it time for the silly flip-flop chant?

And speaking of flip-flops, how about McCain’s flat claim that we should not bail out banks or consumers who make poor economic decisions. Two days later, after a popular Obama speech about not bailouts but sensible refinancing, McCain suddenly argued that we had to help people in trouble.

But perhaps at the top of my befuddlement is why any strong supporter of women’s rights would vote for a candidate who has repeatedly made clear that he would appoint Supreme Court Justices who will overturn Roe v. Wade. Let alone the point that packing the court to force it do one’s will instead of pursuing justice undermines the system.

Speaking of the Supreme Court, McCain made the ridiculous claim that a President Obama would mean more Justices like the ones who ruled out the death penalty for the rape of a child--and this was AFTER Obama said he strongly disagreed with the decision (a decision reached, incidentally, by an already Conservative court).

The Straight-Talk Express has pulled into Bullshit Central, and it’s dropping load after load after load. McCain likes to label Obama as “elitist.” If by “elite” he means “smart,” I say we go with it.
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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/28/2008 3:17:07 PM   
Thadius


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Evening Tim,

Just a quick response for now.  The truth is that Clinton and McCain weren't all that different on many issues.  So I can honestly see how some of her supporters would vote for McCain simply on those grounds.  I do believe that those that are arguing that those supporters are going to vote for McCain because of how she was treated are out of touch with reality.

I think the similarities in Clinton and McCain positions may even be the reason why we haven't seen Obama sieze a majority in any poll yet.  Not that polls are worth the paper they are written on, but it is an interesting aspect to look at.  The historical comparisons of leads at this time suggest that this one is going to be too close to call until after the vote is in.

In simple terms, this is a year that favors a Democrat nominee, and even with the poor campaign being run by McCain he is still neck and neck with Obama.

Bob Novak did an interesting opinion piece on this very subject today. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/can_mccain_back_in_again.html

quote:


Not even Bob Dole's dismal candidacy in 1996 generated less enthusiasm in GOP ranks than McCain's current effort. However, in winning the nomination this year, when he had been counted out after the disintegration of his campaign structure, McCain showed more fortitude than skill. He was blessed by a weak field of Republican competitors, who eliminated each other and left McCain as the last man standing.

But Obama is no Huckabee, Giuliani or Romney. He is the most spectacular campaigner of his generation, with appeal well beyond Democratic ranks. That he lingers below the 50 percent mark is a mystery among politicians of both parties. It is particularly troubling to Democrats who recall past Democratic candidates taking a huge lead over the summer before being overtaken or nearly overtaken by a surging Republican opponent. In 1976, Jimmy Carter took a 33-point summer lead over President Gerald Ford and won in a photo finish. In 1988, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points after being nominated in Atlanta before he lost the election. Al Gore and John Kerry were ahead of George W. Bush in the summer.


I wish you well,
Thadius

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/28/2008 10:54:22 PM   
TheHeretic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

The historical comparisons of leads at this time suggest that this one is going to be too close to call until after the vote is in.




            Gotta disagree with you, Thad.  The model is different for 'change' candidates.  Where was Reagan at this point of the campaign?  I'm not ready to call this one, but I suspect we will see a wave building behind Barry.  It might break early, or scare people into voting the other side, but I think the outcome will be very predictable in the days before the election.

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/28/2008 11:08:58 PM   
Owner59


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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080729/ap_on_go_pr_wh/budget_deficit;_ylt=AkvIdPj2Pm94Y5vKdPleTVd34T0D


Bush has basically handed the race to who ever isn`t the republican.

Folks just can`t afford to take a change with them.Not after seeing the bill for the last 8 years.

McCain could as vital,thoughtful,as curious and smart as Obama,hell,twice as smart and it wouldn`t help.

And right now,most people aren`t thinking about the race.

After the 1st week of Sept.,the real race will start.

Great OP,btw.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 7/28/2008 11:19:57 PM >


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 2:05:22 AM   
FirmhandKY


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FR:

I'd give 3 to 1 odds on McCain winning the election.

The only reason I'd give the odds so low is that I think McCain has a great capacity for screwing things up.

Firm


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 2:20:43 AM   
FirmhandKY


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Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll


Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
Trend, anyone?
Firm


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 3:49:12 AM   
housesub4you


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Polls are crap.  They had polls last night showing hpow Obama was now 6-8 points ahead of McCain

The only thing polls are good for is so the media has something to fill all those hours of news with.

Polls are meaningless, take a stats class, you can create anything you want with a poll.  plus they (media) don't give you the info you need on the poll ti see how accuratre it is

There is a poll stating 51% will agree with this statement and 49%will not.  (+/- 3%)

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 5:35:54 AM   
Thadius


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Morning Tim,


quote:

The distortions aren’t limited to foreign policy. McCain has attacked Obama’s plan to help poorer families with a tax bracket occurring at $200,000, claiming this will hurt small businesses and cost jobs. McCain, however, ignores that those small business costs are already legitimate business liabilities, and so are deducted before counting as earned income--the $200,000 would be net income earned AFTER those employment expenses are already paid.

This would be dependant on what the small business is legally (incorporated or not), if not incorporated it is quite likely that the income would push the person into the AMT and not allow those deductions up front.

quote:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb_archive/2005/12/01/8365384/index.htm
While it is thought of as a tax on individuals, the AMT stealthily strikes harder at small-business owners than at wage earners. Why? For starters, successful entrepreneurs tend to earn more. And 90% of small businesses have their profits taxed as personal income, regardless of whether the firm is organized as an S Corp., LLC, or unincorporated business. In addition, when an entrepreneur's income carries him into AMT land, some business deductions are not allowed.


So individual taxes do affect small business owners.

quote:


McCain also repeats the tax cut mantra--we must cut taxes to stimulate the economy. This, of course, ignores that the previous tax cuts haven’t accomplish that; to the contrary, they’ve contributed to a soaring national debt that has devalued the dollar and helped tighten credit markets. Further, just as in the Reagan years, when the U.S. went from being the largest creditor nation to being the largest debtor nation, with 25% of our assets moving into foreign hands, our current spending habit is being financed primarily by China. Hardly contributes to the independence from foreign interests. Plus, all during the economic boom of the 1990s, the mantra was that we have to cut taxes to give the money back to the American taxpayers. So which is it? Cut taxes in good times. Cut taxes in bad times. Anybody suspect they don’t particularly care about the economy (or just about the economic welfare of their wealthy campaign contributors)? McCain has admitted it’s not his strong suit. He’s right on that point, at least. But certainly not a “maverick.”


The problem is not tax cuts, as revenue form taxes is at all time highs.  The problem is the uncontrolled spending, by both parties, which is also amplified by the expense of the war(s).  You aren't suggesting that rolling back the tax cuts, increasing the capital gains tax to 30%, and instituting a "win falls" tax on "big oil" is going to be good for the economy?  Who do you think will be paying that tax? It certainly won't be the companies, it will be passed on to the consumers.  Looking at proposed policies, there is definitely no sign of that spending becoming less under Obama, in fact some of the policies he is speaking about are going to send the deficit even higher.  Plus, the cost of the war isn't going to become any less, he is just talking about moving the front over to Afghanistan.

I wish you well,
Thadius


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 5:42:58 AM   
bipolarber


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Women and yonger, draft age, people should definitely be voting against another four years of this Bush crap. Women, because there are three to four supreme court justices just champing at the bit to retire, and if McCain is picking the replacements, we can assume that he'll pick people who will flush civil and women's rights down the toilet as a matter of course. Younger people because, if the occupation of Iraq continues, and the invasion of Iran takes place, the draft is going to HAVE to come back. (Last night, there was a news report on the "relaxing" of military standards for recruits... now they don't mind is your are a drunk, or a druggie, or if you were at the bottom of your class. (Not a good sign...) So, if the kids don't want to have their lives ripped away for "George's WMD snipe hunt" they'd better think about voting for the guy who's stated position is to end it, and end it in under two years.

Just sayin'...

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 6:21:20 AM   
Owner59


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll





Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.



The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Trend, anyone?
Firm



Hey Cap`m Buzzkill,

There are a hell of a lot of folks(younger Obama types) who don`t have land-line phones and don`t show up on these polls.


The polls should start out but saying "according to respondents who have old phone technology",blah blah blah....

Folks on the internetz,those using Blackberrys,cells,I-phones,etc.,don`t get heard in these old tech polls.

And those are the people ,most likely to vote democratic or at least not be total GOP types.

And the notion that youngsters aren`t savvy and active politically ,is over.

Howard Dean started it,McCain and most others have picked up on it and Mr.Obama has mastered internetz fund-raising.Obama`s getting $50 million a month, with the average donation at about a hundred dollars.

The net has connected people(and their $) like never before and those folks aren`t being counted by Gallup,Rand,Quinnipiac,etc.,for the most part.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 7/29/2008 6:24:26 AM >


_____________________________

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 6:40:19 AM   
TheHeretic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bipolarber

Younger people because, if the occupation of Iraq continues, and the invasion of Iran takes place, the draft is going to HAVE to come back.



            Ummm...  Bipo?  I'm guessing here that you are missing the sorts of new military adventurism Barry wants to get us involved in.  Where do you figure he's going to get the troops to go sending off to places a lot nastier than Iraq?  Or do you think the pink unicorn of magical change just sort of craps them out?


           http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/barackobamaberlinspeech.htm  

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 6:46:13 AM   
TheHeretic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

There are a hell of a lot of folks(younger Obama types) who don`t have land-line phones and don`t show up on these polls.


The polls should start out but saying "according to respondents who have old phone technology",blah blah blah....

Folks on the internetz,those using Blackberrys,cells,I-phones,etc.,don`t get heard in these old tech polls.

And those are the people ,most likely to vote democratic or at least not be total GOP types.

And the notion that youngsters aren`t savvy and active politically ,is over.

Howard Dean started it,McCain and most others have picked up on it and Mr.Obama has mastered internetz fund-raising.Obama`s getting $50 million a month, with the average donation at about a hundred dollars.

The net has connected people(and their $) like never before and those folks aren`t being counted by Gallup,Rand,Quinnipiac,etc.,for the most part.



           Right...   And all the new 18 year old voters were going to sweep McGovern into the White House in '72.  They can't text in their vote, O59.  They have to show up, and young voters are notoriously unreliable for that. 

_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


(in reply to Owner59)
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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 6:56:57 AM   
Owner59


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Obviously......over 40.


We`ll learn ya.....


Note,Obama says he`d rather have only 5 dollars and someone`s vote,rather than a bigger donation.

It`ll be interesting to see if young folks sit this one out.

There was no Iraq/Viet Nam thing, going on in '72'.

_____________________________

"As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals"

President Obama

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 7:06:43 AM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59


There was no Iraq/Viet Nam thing, going on in '72'.


Uhm....  You may want to rethink that one... not only was there an outright protest to the war, there was still a draft going on.  Not only that it was probably the most central issue of the '72 election cycle.

http://www.sss.gov/lotter4.htm

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 9:37:27 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll





Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.



The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Trend, anyone?
Firm



Hey Cap`m Buzzkill,

There are a hell of a lot of folks(younger Obama types) who don`t have land-line phones and don`t show up on these polls.


The polls should start out but saying "according to respondents who have old phone technology",blah blah blah....

Folks on the internetz,those using Blackberrys,cells,I-phones,etc.,don`t get heard in these old tech polls.

And those are the people ,most likely to vote democratic or at least not be total GOP types.

And the notion that youngsters aren`t savvy and active politically ,is over.

Howard Dean started it,McCain and most others have picked up on it and Mr.Obama has mastered internetz fund-raising.Obama`s getting $50 million a month, with the average donation at about a hundred dollars.

The net has connected people(and their $) like never before and those folks aren`t being counted by Gallup,Rand,Quinnipiac,etc.,for the most part.


Hey, Owner. *waves*

I think the "youth vote" was pretty much dismissed in this poll.  After all, it was likely voters. 

Firm


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 9:54:30 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: housesub4you

Polls are crap.  They had polls last night showing hpow Obama was now 6-8 points ahead of McCain

The only thing polls are good for is so the media has something to fill all those hours of news with.

Polls are meaningless, take a stats class, you can create anything you want with a poll.  plus they (media) don't give you the info you need on the poll ti see how accuratre it is

There is a poll stating 51% will agree with this statement and 49%will not.  (+/- 3%)


You aren't far off in some of your thoughts (I polled myself, and the vote was 48% to 57% in favor of agreeing with you) .

However there are several things that I think are interesting:

1.  It's a trend.  Multiple polls, by many different organizations have shown the Big "O" losing support, and McCain ... well ... not losing a lot of support.

2.  Historically, the majority of political polls over-estimate the number of votes "planned" to be voted for the Democratic candidate, and under-estimate the number "planned" to be voted for the Republican candidate.  Significant discrepancies exist, but generally you can count on about a 5% "bump" for the Republican, and about the same decrease from public polls for the Democrat.

3. The Bradley Effect.

Plus some other things.

I expect McCain (absent some real screw ups) to win handily, with at least a 10% margin.

Firm


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 1:01:47 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

Morning Tim,

quote:The distortions aren’t limited to foreign policy. McCain has attacked Obama’s plan to help poorer families with a tax bracket occurring at $200,000, claiming this will hurt small businesses and cost jobs. McCain, however, ignores that those small business costs are already legitimate business liabilities, and so are deducted before counting as earned income--the $200,000 would be net income earned AFTER those employment expenses are already paid. [end quote]

This would be dependant on what the small business is legally (incorporated or not), if not incorporated it is quite likely that the income would push the person into the AMT and not allow those deductions up front.


Hi Thadius,

No, the point is essentially the same in either case.

If a sole proprietor, certainly the small business owner can deduct the expense of employess, so it would not figure in the owner's personal net income (or personal income taxes).

If incorporated, the small business owner would pay personal income taxes on whatever the corporation pays the owner. (Corporate taxes are outside of this particular issue).

Your other points about the AMT and corporations are also irrelevant to this particular issue. AMT refers again to personal income, and the threshold is hardly $200,000. And corporations passing along costs are, again, outside of a personal income tax issue.

Live well,

Tim

< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 7/29/2008 1:16:23 PM >

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 2:24:56 PM   
DomKen


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I have not been able to find the questions for the USA Today/Gallup poll but the widely respected and very balanced Gallup daily tracking poll:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx
Shows Senator Obama with a 6 point lead.

Seems likely that the USA Today poll used less balanced language to manufacture some news.

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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 2:45:59 PM   
Vendaval


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I do not understand that stance either.  It now appears unlikely that Hillary would be a candidate for a VP. 
 
Senator McCain lost any chance on my vote because of his dismal record on reproductive health care.
 
Senator Obama has my vote in part because of his high rating on reproductive health care.

http://www.ppawi.org/elections/2008.aspx


quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
Poor reasoning is hardly unusual in political arguments, but among the poorest is the ire expressed by some of Hillary Clinton’s disappointed supporters.

The argument, such as it is, runs that since the media treated Senator Clinton poorly, her supporters will vote for McCain instead of Obama.

No, seriously—they say this with straight faces and pious intensity.


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RE: John Quixote and the McCainocrats - 7/29/2008 3:42:12 PM   
bipolarber


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Joined: 9/25/2004
Status: offline
Old Gaurd Republicans seem to keep underestimating how much things have changed. Just look at how well Obama's been able to finance his campagin so far, just via individual internet donations. I hate to say it, but one of McCain's repeating mistakes so far is not understanding just how the new media works... he seems to think that he can deny things that he's said in the past, and claim credit for things he hasn't done... when the facts behind either are just a half dozen mouse clicks away... He's been embarassed several times by this, and I think, shows no signs of correcting the behavior.

Now... have things changed re: the "youth vote"? Hard to say... Most college/draft agers don't seem to have it on their radar screens, it's true. Probably because Bush has manipulated things so that we're not seeing coffins being disgorged from cargo planes endlessly, and we're not seeing much of the tens of thousands of maimed that have returned from this sand filled meat grinder. Hell, war protesters don't even make the 6:00 news anymore... they're just shuffled off to a "free speech zone/detention area." Out of sight, out of mind...

But, if anything should happen, to wake those kids up....

(in reply to Vendaval)
Profile   Post #: 20
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