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RE: Oil - 5/26/2008 11:06:24 PM   
Dominatist


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Oops

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RE: Oil - 5/26/2008 11:46:24 PM   
Hippiekinkster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Leatherist

Which is why we need to begin to develop an infrastructure with electric powered vehicles NOW-not when this expensive polluting shit runs out.
Exactamundo. And Mag-lev intercity rail transport, subways, light rail, extended bus sytems using mini-buses that feed into U/S-Bahn stations, bicycle lanes on the sidewalks like in Europe, dirigible air transport, and so on.

Turn off those fucking lights that light up every fucking building and skyscraper in the country, too.

As MadRabbit said, gonna happen soon, sooner than the numbers he gives, I think, because those are steady-state numbers.

Anyone remember that vid on exponential growth I posted months ago? Of course not. Nobody looked at it. Rampant innumeracy. ANyway,  at 3% growth per year, oil consumption will double in about 23 years. GLOBALLY.

Think about it.


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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 8:08:24 AM   
MadRabbit


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Anyone remember that vid on exponential growth I posted months ago? Of course not. Nobody looked at it. Rampant innumeracy. ANyway,  at 3% growth per year, oil consumption will double in about 23 years. GLOBALLY.

Think about it.



That's a good point. I forgot to factor in growth when doing my estimates.

I'm sticking to my orginal opinion and say it will be about a year before we begin to see real changes. Everyone is talking about it right now, but in the "Not In My Backyard" philosophy of the U.S., things unfortanely have to happen right smack dab in the middle of the majority's baskyards before there is a drive for change.

Unrealistic opinions like Mr. Rodger's are still the norm. It's sad how many people I have met who think that this whole issue is just a bunch of bullshit and we have enough oil to last forever and ever and ever. People are more concerned with the basketball game last Sunday then with what exactly is going to happen when the price of gas grows exponently to the point where it crushes the lower class.

We all pay for the same gallon of gas, but someone who can budget for $1000 a month in gas expenses is going to feel the punch a lot less than someone who can only budget for $200.

Harvest nitrate? How is that going to solve the problem at the pump? I spent about 20 minutes googling the Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico and couldn't find a single article about it being a source of gasoline.

< Message edited by MadRabbit -- 5/27/2008 8:11:29 AM >


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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 8:36:50 AM   
Anarrus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

Just imagine, if we chose to develop alternative sources of power generation...... E


The thing is, the technology is already available. It's just damn expensive right now. I watched a show last night on the Science channel here. It was an hour long program about a man who runs his entire house on hydrogen and solar power, plus has converted his vehicle to hydrogen power. The kicker is that the price tag for doing all of that right now is roughly $500k.
I see the problem as being not one of developing the technology but instead as being one of bringing the technology to the masses cheaply.
That involves billions of dollars and a lot of financial underwriting and speculation. Unfortunately we all know that a lot of the purse strings are controlled by those who wouldn't stand to benefit from the shift of oil based technology to the alternative technolgies.

Anarrus

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 10:47:34 AM   
Irishknight


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Turn off those fucking lights that light up every fucking building and skyscraper in the country, too.


Are you talking about the ones that are there to keep planes from hitting them?  I realize we have other systems to do that but I like the lights being there so that we have that extra little back up.

Other than that, I have to agree with you.

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 10:54:58 AM   
Padriag


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anarrus

The thing is, the technology is already available. It's just damn expensive right now.

Correct on both points.  For about $40k you can have your home generating somewhere between 4-8Kw per hour using existing and available solar panels, which is enough to run a small to moderate sized home. 

quote:

I see the problem as being not one of developing the technology but instead as being one of bringing the technology to the masses cheaply.

Correct again, developing a technology is only the first step.  Producing it in large quantities at prices that are marketable and sustainable is at least half the challenge.  Most seem to forget that all that equipment is going to have to be paid for by someone, whether its private ownership, energy companies, or the government (which really means we end up paying for it... and probably too much).  Manufacturers have to be able to produce it and make enough money for it to be worth producing, which partly requires a higher market demand... which we may just be seeing the beginning of.

quote:

That involves billions of dollars and a lot of financial underwriting and speculation.

Not really as much of a problem as you might think.  If the demand is there, if the market is there... the investment will follow.

quote:

 Unfortunately we all know that a lot of the purse strings are controlled by those who wouldn't stand to benefit from the shift of oil based technology to the alternative technolgies.

Not entirely true.  Its why the major oil companies are already heavily investing in solar and wind power generation and experimenting with setting up both solar and wind farms.  Many people would probably be surprised to know that in the US, virtually anywhere you life, a small percentage of your electricity already does come from solar and wind power... not enough to make much of a difference, but the development has already started.  The oil companies know the oil is running out, and they know if they want to stay in the energy business they need to convert... and they are.  But any transition takes time... there's still a lot in the way of practical application to be worked out.  Its one thing to put solar panels on your house... bit more complex building huge solar farms, same thing with wind and hydro power.

The silver lining to all of the above is that there is an opportunity for smaller investors to get involved and get a piece of the pie.  These are the kind of times when major fortunes can be (and some will be) lost... while others are created.  Some of the current oil and power companies won't survive these changes, some will... and you may just see some new ones formed.

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 11:57:14 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Irishknight

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Turn off those fucking lights that light up every fucking building and skyscraper in the country, too.


Are you talking about the ones that are there to keep planes from hitting them?  I realize we have other systems to do that but I like the lights being there so that we have that extra little back up.

Do you really believe that?

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 12:05:44 PM   
Irishknight


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That towers and buildings have flashing lights on them to keep planes from hitting them?  Are you telling me you don't?  Try putting up a radio tower with no lights and see how fast they come down on your ass.  They don't pay people hundreds of dollars to change one lightbulb on a radio tower for no reason.

Tell you what, you go flying in one of the many smaller planes in this country that are not radar equipped and we'll turn off all the lights.  When they scrape whats left of you up and cart you away, maybe you'll believe that some things really are that simple.

If you don't believe that it can happen look up cases of people hitting MOUNTAINS.  It happens.  If a frakkin mountain can sneak up on a pilot at night then so can a building.

If you are asking if I believe that Hippie was talking about those lights, thats why I asked.  I would hope he wasn't.  HE seems more intelligent than that.

< Message edited by Irishknight -- 5/27/2008 12:06:31 PM >

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 12:07:29 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Irishknight

That towers and buildings have flashing lights on them to keep planes from hitting them?  Are you telling me you don't?  Try putting up a radio tower with no lights and see how fast they come down on your ass.  They don't pay people hundreds of dollars to change one lightbulb on a radio tower for no reason.

Tell you what, you go flying in one of the many smaller planes in this country that are not radar equipped and we'll turn off all the lights.  When they scrape whats left of you up and cart you away, maybe you'll believe that some things really are that simple.

If you don't believe that it can happen look up cases of people hitting MOUNTAINS.  It happens.  If a frakkin mountain can sneak up on a pilot at night then so can a building.

If you are asking if I believe that Hippie was talking about those lights

No. I asked a question about your specific claim, that skyscraper leave their lights on to protect them from planes. Do you or don't you?

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 12:13:55 PM   
Irishknight


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Which lights?  The flashing lights?  Thats what I'm asking about.  Is it possible you can read something without trying to twist the statement?  Wait. 
I'm not talking about the bathroom light or the office lights.  I'm asking about the lights on the outside of the building.  I will place a bet that you knew that before trying to twist things around.

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 1:06:30 PM   
DomKen


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I didn't try and twist anything. You made a comment on HK's comment about turning off the lights in skyscrapers as if it was a safety issue. I happen to know that that is wrong and asked if you really believed it was true. Now you've gotten yourself into a snit and making claims I twisted your statements which I didn't. Relax take deep breaths and read what people write not what you hope they wrote!

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 1:21:11 PM   
Irishknight


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I read exactly what you wrote.  I asked about specific lights.  Perhaps you should reread things.  Hippie only said the lights that light up every skyscraper.  That could mean inside or out.  So I asked for clarification.  You knew that before trying to make it into whatever you wanted. 
You have this love hate relationship with anyone else's statements.  You love to twist them and hate it when they won't play your game.  You are right about one thing, I did need to take a breath. 
The feds require that the lights be placed on structures above a certain height.  Otherwise, radio towers, many of which are on top of skyscrapers, would not have them.  They would say, screw spending this money.
If Hippie had come back and said he was talking about the signage on many of them or the lights inside, I would have agreed with that. 

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 1:22:03 PM   
LadyEllen


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A lot of the alternative technology is expensive. But in France right now, a former Formula 1 engineer is working on a production car, due out next year which will be competitive with petrol driven vehicles in terms of speed and range - all operated by an engine powered with compressed air, and apparently competitive in terms of price to buy too. The only drawback in the car is, that it is totally silent - but thats a big advantage too for an alternative application.

If we took the compressed air engine out of the cars, placed one in each home and piped compressed air into them via the gas network and had the engines produce electricity, each home could have its own power generator for hundreds rather than tens of thousands of dollars, we wouldnt need to put in any new infrastructure and we'd be off of gas and out of the Kremlin's clutches.

All we then need is a very, very few conventional power stations to generate the compressed air to pump into the pipes. But then there are already such plants in existence, pumping gas into the pipes.

Naturally, the gas company will prevent any such thing - "you cant pump air through these pipes, mate - it aint safe" - whereas of course its perfectly safe to pump highly flammable gas which regularly causes devastating explosions.

E

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 3:25:22 PM   
Termyn8or


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LE, you've doubled up on me. The one point that alot of travel should be eliminated is a good one.  I have oft said, but locally because that is where it is understood. "You got a roofer driving from Eastlake to Westlake to do a job, as another roofer passes by on the same road going from Westlake to Eastlake to do the exact same job on a different house". Just to clarify, Westlake is a suburb about 15 miles west of me and Eastlake is about 25 miles east of me. Each of them is driving forty miles each way.

I have said it more than once, but not so much here being international and all, but I actually did it. I traded jobs with someone about three years ago. They had been driving about forty miles each way to work, and I was driving twenty three. After the swap he was driving about fifteen and I was driving about seven. And this job is not something everyone can do, but what about jobs with different skill levels ?

Like landscaping. Unless you are the master of landscaping, it doesn't take all that much in the way of schooling. In fact there is a maintainence component of that kind of work which mostly entails mowing the grass, once everything is in. Now why do I see a pickup with a trailer hauling lawnmowers on the highway, and see one going the other direction as well ?

This is meant for everybody, but LE, of all people you know what has happened to the bottom line when it comes to transportation. Maybe start a network called Jobtrade or something like that.

Now as to you other point about compressed air. It may be a viable option for some things, but understand it takes quite a bit of pressure, as well as delivery. Factories use to to power small tools as it is more efficient than electricity or other means. In fact in the old days alot of factories had one huge motor mounted up high and belts drove all the machines, the bigger ones anyway. Any transferrence of power costs money. I'm sure plenty of them used compressed air as well because it is more practical for certain things.

However running a house on compressed air is not practical.

I can't claim to be a real engineer but I am damn close, and probably know more than some of the stupid ones. Years ago I designed something that, but for the lack of one component, would be worth patenting. I dropped it.

This was a car AC system that uses no freon, latent heat principles or anything like that. And knowing what I know I can say this assuredly, if a deisel engine can run, this would work. A deisel runs because at around 25:1 compression ratio it needs no spark plug, The intake air temperature rises once compressed in the cylinder. This is not because of friction, this is because you have compressed the air to such a degree that the same amount of heat energy in the large volume of air is now in a very small volume of air.  By the basic laws of thermodynamics the temperature must increase, and remember we are coming from absolute zero here, not zero celsius or farenheit.

Now my idea entails filtering and compressing air to several atmosphers and pushing it through a heat exchanger. The system has a regulator at the output of the heat exchanger (it would be improper to call it a condenser I think) and it lets out enough air, which when allowed to expand is at a much lower temperature.

The problem with the KISS theory here is that a compressor must be designed which can maintain the high air pressure needed to effect enough of a temperature difference between the heat exchanger and the ambient air, all the while providing enough volume to cool the cabin of the vehicle.

Therein lies the problem. A compressor with sufficient capacity to do it, and along with that, the requisite energy to run the compressor.

Which brings us to the flaw in your theory. First of all gas lines are low pressure and in many areas would not be able to handle it. But even if we forget using gas lines, make new lines, it is going to take alot. That is a major undertaking to upgrade the infrastructure to do this. It can be done though, but is it practical ?

First of all we are talking bigger pipes that the gas company used, and really, compressed air is not the way to heat a house. With high pressure lines coming into the house I could see a network of pipes running certain things. Somewhat like they use in factories and garages. I could see refrigerators, AC units, washers and dryers powered by air. Anything with a decent size motor in it.

However compressed air does nothing to fill the washing machine tank, and heating, that's a nighmare. Using air, which you will no doubt pay for by CFM, or outstates cubic litres or something, the only way to make any heat is to generate electricity. We are back where we started.

It is cheaper to burn gas. I said gas because it applies to both gas gas and gasoline, or benzine or petrol, your choice. Although it covers more other costs, in Europe petrol has been very expensive for some time now. Whatever they use all that money for matters not, under those conditions people do look for alternatives. They haven't quite found it yet.

One has to do math sometimes. Natural gas rates have skyrocketed in this area, and now it is "semi-privatized" with companies being allowed, for a fee, to deliver thweir gas through the existing pipes. This year, we are going to an electric dryer. We will still have both but our electric bills have not increased all that much over the years.

But are we at the crossover point where electricity is cheaper ? If it gets to that point we will install electric heat, but get this, we are going to remove anything. We will be able to pick which form of heat on any given day. OK so we got options, but what are those options, both cost money.

I don't think, as far as transportation goes, we will see the crossover point making something other than gasoline viable until it hits about twenty bucks a gallon. Right now an electric car looks good, but once you get one, and you get the electric bill after charging it, you have gained nothing.

The problem lies in the fact that it takes energy to generate electricity, and electricity is not really an efficient medium. That is why electric furnaces are not in vogue in Ohio, US. But it might happen. Eventually.

So in analogy to the compressed air theory, just what is ultimately to compress that air ? That has to take energy.

One tenet of science is that energy cannot be created nor destroyed, but the thing is, it can be apparently created and destroyed. It's all in one's prespective.

In the end, the answer has to be solar. I think eventually, possibly after a couple of wars, the crossover point will come and between reduced consumption and increased efficiency in the use of solar power, it will ultimately be the answer. Thing is everybody thinks inside the box. Whenever solar is brought up is comes back to solar cells. That is not the only way to use solar energy.

If you have a bigscreen TV, a rear projection, in it behind the screen is a fresnel lens. If you ever go nuts and throw a beer through it or something you have to get a new one and it is $$$, lots of them. It says right on the box "Do not remove it from the box outside". That is because it is basically a huge magnifying glass. Out in the sun it can cause a fire.

A coworker and I one day decided to test that. We took one outside on a warm sunny day and we found that we could burn asphalt with no problem. Discussion on anther group, a guy said to use it for casting bullets for reloading. Melt lead, it would be no problem at all. Now a heat source like this, you have to be able to do something with it.

But winter does come. Every year that I have been alive.

Gathering and transporting an alternativwe form of enegy is already a headache to say the least, now try to store it. At least gas can go in tanks, and again I used the word gas because it applies to both gasoline and natural gas. Yoiu can keep it bottled up somehow.

Battery technology sucks, even wire transportation of electricity sucks. They have to step it up with transformers to hundreds of thousands of volts so the don't have to use wires that are three feet thick.

Everything is a pain in the ass, but there will come a point when the scales will tip. When people finally say "Fuck this" and go alternative. That when the power dynamic of the world will also tip.

Enjoy it if you live long enough to see it happen.

T

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 3:45:24 PM   
LadyEllen


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The compressed air engine turns on compressed air to produce electricity T. If the engine under development can propel a car laden with four people at 70mph, then surely that would be enough electricity to power a house? (unless its my friends' house when we all plug our amps in)

We have plants which fill containers with compressed air - whilst we install any new infrastructure that might be required we can use our compressed air powered vehicles to deliver compressed air containers door to door with the milk every day.

I also wonder - if the existing gas network cannot take compressed air as required, could the air not still be delivered through the gas network and be compressed at point of delivery by way of excess unused electricity produced by the engine? Overnight for instance, when electricity is not used so much, the engine compresses the air for the following day's "fuel". This would necessitate two larger domestic air tanks than required purely for household needs, as capacity would have to be available to power the filling of tank B from the "fuel" remaining in tank A. This would require presumably, a very efficient means of compressing air however - and I must emphasise I am talking from the basis of no knowledge or skill about the engineering realities for all this! (in fact, I have problems with spanners, even with the lefty-loosy/righty-tighty thing in my head - I blame the hormones).

E

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 3:57:51 PM   
Hippiekinkster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Irishknight

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster

Turn off those fucking lights that light up every fucking building and skyscraper in the country, too.


Are you talking about the ones that are there to keep planes from hitting them?  I realize we have other systems to do that but I like the lights being there so that we have that extra little back up.

Other than that, I have to agree with you.
No, I'm talking about those fucking Klieg lights on the ground illuminating buildings in some fucked-up attempt to mirror Albert Speer's "Cathedral of Light".

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“Nothing we do, however virtuous, can be accomplished alone; therefore we are saved by love.” Reinhold Ne

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 4:02:10 PM   
LadyEllen


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That sounds like almost every damned hotel I ever stayed in HK!

How they expect you to sleep when theyre shining a searchlight through your window all night, I have no idea

E

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 4:26:15 PM   
Hippiekinkster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen

That sounds like almost every damned hotel I ever stayed in HK!

How they expect you to sleep when theyre shining a searchlight through your window all night, I have no idea

E
They don't want you to sleep, LE. They want you to stay awake and orfer room service booze in a futiel effort to sleep at 400% markup.

Stayed in London at the Marriott Courtyard right there next to the eye. The traffic noise on Westminster bridge was annoying, and that eye was lit up like a xmas tree.

Stayed at the 4 Seasons Berlin (top-shelf digs, that) in 2000. Berlin-Brandenburg State Bird was the Building Crane. Right across the street from our room they were building from 6 AM to 8 PM. Problem was, that was on all 4 sides of the hotel that shit was going on. First time I ever wore earplugs to bed. Helluva trip, though.

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 4:38:47 PM   
shallowdeep


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LadyEllen
If we took the compressed air engine out of the cars, placed one in each home and piped compressed air into them via the gas network and had the engines produce electricity, each home could have its own power generator for hundreds rather than tens of thousands of dollars, we wouldnt need to put in any new infrastructure and we'd be off of gas and out of the Kremlin's clutches.

One little problem. Compressing air requires energy, more than you can extract from it. Seventy percent recovery would be very good. Pumping compressed air through a distribution network at the required pressures would also result in huge losses. Typical electrical transmission losses are less than 5%. A compressed air scheme would probably waste more like 50% - and still be entirely dependent on the same fossil fuel energy sources to run the compressors. It would make the problem much worse, not better.

Compressed air and hydrogen, like batteries, are forms of energy storage - not sources of energy.


Wishing a class on thermodynamics was required when running for office.

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RE: Oil - 5/27/2008 4:51:41 PM   
shallowdeep


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level
Now, Mr Journalist may be correct on all of the above, but one thing he writes is bothersome, in a different way:

quote:

Some sports utility vehicles (SUVs) average just four miles per gallon. The SUV market share in the US was 2 per cent in 1975. By 2003 it was 24 per cent. In consequence, average US vehicle fuel efficiency fell between 1987 and 2001, from 26.2 to 24.4 miles per gallon. This at a time when other countries were producing cars capable of up to 60 miles per gallon.


Doesn't he make it sound like these "4 MPG" SUVs are everywhere? And what vehicle is he talking about, the Hummers? It's not like there are millions of them roaming the streets. Anyway...

Legget actually is not a journalist, but an activist who seems to have been invited to write a piece based on a book he wrote. As such, it's an opinion piece. Singling out extremes to make a case is pretty typical, if perhaps not entirely helpful. He does immediately follow up the 4 mpg extreme with the average fuel economy, so I don't see it as particularly misleading, or as detracting from the article.

It's interesting article and, regardless of how much you buy into early topping, the article's predictions, made in January 2006, of $100+ per barrel of oil and increasing price volatility were prescient.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Level
If we can put a man on the moon, we can solve the energy crisis.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, but the argument is a bit weak. As incredible an accomplishment as briefly sending twelve people to the moon was, the challenge that posed is surpassed - and by several orders of magnitude both in scale and technical difficulty - by the challenge realigning our energy infrastructure poses.

For purposes of comparison, the Apollo project cost $25.4 billion (roughly $140 billion in present value) over more than a decade from Kennedy's May 25th speech in 1961 to the return of Apollo 17 in December of 1972. At current prices of $130/barrel, the US will consume more than a trillion dollars of oil this year alone. Unfortunately, political leadership and public support seem to lag behind that afforded to the Apollo project, despite the seemingly greater benefits. Even concerned, intelligent people are often ill-informed, believing, for instance, that hydrogen or compressed air are energy sources. We aren't yet doing a particularly good job with the small steps, let alone the giant leaps that will be required.

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