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Mercnbeth -> Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' (3/4/2008 3:07:41 PM)
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I think Senator Clinton will prevail today in Texas and Ohio. It seems the inflammatory stories, planted or just good investigating journalism, have gained traction in mainstream media and Senator Obama's momentum has, at the moment, slowed. However, if she does win it doesn't have a major impact on the final delegate count result. According to a number of sources, unless she wins in a landslide in both TX and OH, she will not have and can not get to the necessary number of delegates to put her over the top and gain the nomination. According to the link contained in the story quoted, delegate calculator , neither Senator Clinton or Senator Obama will reach the magic 2,025 number.
At that point, entering into the picture 'SUPER-DELEGATE'. I never knew about 'Super-delegates'. What I found out was if you like the Electoral College you'll LOVE 'Super-delegates'. A super-delegate is the electoral college on steroids. Basically, these people have the option to vote as they please. Near as I can ascertain, 'Super-delegates' are people owed favors at the state level, are big contributors, or big political 'names'. For instance, President William J. Clinton is a 'superdelegate'; wonder if he can be wooed to Senator Obama?
It would be likely if Senator Obama does not come out of today's primaries as a winner in at least one of the majore States, TX or OH, the nomination will be in the hands of the 'superdelegates'.
quote:
Even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight's primaries, she still has an increasingly difficult road ahead. Going into this evening's results, Clinton needs an average margin of victory of 16 points in every remaining primary to tie Obama's pledged delegate total. If Clinton wins by fewer than 16 points, then her job only gets tougher going forward. According to our delegate calculator, two 10-point wins in Ohio and Texas would inflate her margin-of-victory target to 20 points, which will be a hard margin to achieve once Obama visits Pennsylvania and North Carolina (the two richest states remaining, delegate-wise).
But there is some good news for Hillary: If she wins tonight, pledged delegates definitely won't decide this contest. With two Clinton victories, neither candidate will be able to reach 2,025 delegates—the number needed for a majority—without the help of superdelegates. (Obama had a slim chance of doing so coming into the evening.) Currently, Clinton has a 44-super-delegate lead, according to CNN, but Tom Brokaw is reporting that Obama's campaign may be set to announce a 50-superdelegate envoy this week. That would make both candidates about even in super-delegates, which would make Clinton's climb even tougher. If she averaged a 10-point win in every state going forward (including tonight's festivities), and if Obama pulls even with her in the superdelegate count this week, she would need to attract 57 more super-delegates than Obama by the convention. Considering she has a net loss of superdelegates over the last few weeks, that's going to take an even bigger turnaround than a comeback at the polls.
Source: http://slate.com/id/2185278/
Assuming the projections hold per the quoted article, the nominee can be a person who didn't win the popular vote and generated less elected delegates.
Whether you back Senator Obama, or Senator Clinton, how do you feel about the prospect of the nomination being decided by a hand full or power brokers? Again assuming the 'math' sited in the article is accurate, would you prefer the loser of the elected delegate count conceed the nomination or have the 'superdelegates' fight it out in smoky back-rooms at the convention? concede
I'm hoping that this will be received as a neutral question to generate some opinions and not viewed as trying to instigate dissension within the 'rank & file'.
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