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Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/7/2007 10:27:24 PM

Owner59

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Good for some, but really ,really bad, for others.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071206/bs_nm/usa_economy_housing_dc;_ylt=AnhI22q22f6Dn0Z_ekwmz4is0NUE

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/7/2007 10:55:46 PM

TheHeretic

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House prices are forecast to fall 13 percent from their peak through early 2009.

This started a while back. I bought this place 20% under the peak market price (and made the sellers cover almost every penny of costs). I fully expect to see a further decline. As a long term investment, I think we're going to be just fine. This is a home, not a day-trade.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/7/2007 11:05:04 PM

MzMia

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That is a wonderful attitude.
What happens to the people who are stuck in homes that they paid big bucks for,
and now these homes have depreciated by 20% and they want to sell?

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/7/2007 11:21:44 PM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

What happens to the people who are stuck in homes that they paid big bucks for,
and now these homes have depreciated by 20% and they want to sell?

This is a very bad time to need to sell, MzMia. When your best hope is that an asshole such as myself will come along... We are back to a buyer's market.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 12:11:41 AM

popeye1250

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Round up the usual suspects, the Northeast, Calif. and parts of Fla.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 7:21:03 AM

pahunkboy

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this happened 20 years ago. hmm. maybe we will be ready in 20 years for the next time. [s and l crises] -ok what next on the 20 year cycle?

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 8:58:22 AM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

this happened 20 years ago. hmm. maybe we will be ready in 20 years for the next time. [s and l crises] -ok what next on the 20 year cycle?

PaHunk, yup, it's almost like clockwork in New England!
Prices go way up for 7-10 years then they start the long slow slide downwards for 8-10 years.
It's like the pendulum effect. Too far in one direction, then too far in the other direction.
Having lived there for most of my life I'm very familiar with that market and how it works.
My place here in Myrtle Beach is worth $139k.
If it were in N.H. on a golf course like here it would go for $400k.
So that tells me we're either too low here or New England is too high. Ergo the huge "spread" in price.
Plus we have better weather and much lower real estate taxes.
My taxes on this place are $378 yearly.
If it were in N.H. they'd be $6,000.
When people from up North come down here for the first time they can't believe the prices!
And when they sell their places up North and buy here they usually buy new cars here too with just the money they're saving on r.e. taxes.
And they all say; "I should have moved here ten years ago!"
It's the same way for Calif. People are moving out of that state as well.
Why pay $800k for a house there that you could buy in the Carolinas for $200k?

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 9:02:43 AM

KatyLied

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I'm cool with this stuff, I feel unaffected. I already have equity in my home, if I had to sell tomorrow I'd come out ahead. Although my low mortgage payment makes me tied here, probably forever, because I'll never find a comparable situation.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 9:17:56 AM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Why pay $800k for a house there that you could buy in the Carolinas for $200k?

That's a perfectly valid question for the retired, or those who are able to work from home anywhere, Popeye. For people who need to go earn a living though, it's a different story. How many $80,000+ a year jobs are there within an easy drive of your golf course condo?

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 9:21:39 AM

TheIronHorse

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My home is paid for and I am not going anywhere. No probs here.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 9:23:25 AM

velvetears

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Why pay $800k for a house there that you could buy in the Carolinas for $200k?

Maybe because people actually like and enjoy where they live and don't want to move? i don't want to move from the area i grew up in, i am happy here and i like what i have around me. i would be unhappy elsewhere, and trust me i know, i have tried living different places.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 10:46:33 AM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Why pay $800k for a house there that you could buy in the Carolinas for $200k?

That's a perfectly valid question for the retired, or those who are able to work from home anywhere, Popeye. For people who need to go earn a living though, it's a different story. How many $80,000+ a year jobs are there within an easy drive of your golf course condo?

Heretic, that's true, I'm retired and not in the job market so actually I have no idea about the job market here.
There's a lot of brandnew vehicles around here though so I'm sure Salespeople do very well. People buy a lot of new furniture here too. Lots of new furniture stores here in the last few years and there's always lots of cars in their parking lots.
That's where the big money is, in Sales.
One of my neighbor's sons recently moved here from Massachusetts and started a fencing business and he's doing pretty well for himself.
He told me if I hear of anyone who needs fencing to let him know.
I told him that I knew someone who needs about 2,000 miles of fencing!
For people like me it just makes a tremendous amount of financial sense to live in this area and not be "house poor" up North.
Plus, it's sunny and 75 here today so I was thinking about going to the beach for a walk.
Let's just look on Yahoo and see what the weather is like up in New Hampshire!

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 12/8/2007 11:05:51 AM >

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 4:40:21 PM

pahunkboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

this happened 20 years ago. hmm. maybe we will be ready in 20 years for the next time. [s and l crises] -ok what next on the 20 year cycle?

PaHunk, yup, it's almost like clockwork in New England!
Prices go way up for 7-10 years then they start the long slow slide downwards for 8-10 years.
It's like the pendulum effect. Too far in one direction, then too far in the other direction.
Having lived there for most of my life I'm very familiar with that market and how it works.
My place here in Myrtle Beach is worth $139k.
If it were in N.H. on a golf course like here it would go for $400k.
So that tells me we're either too low here or New England is too high. Ergo the huge "spread" in price.
Plus we have better weather and much lower real estate taxes.
My taxes on this place are $378 yearly.
If it were in N.H. they'd be $6,000.
When people from up North come down here for the first time they can't believe the prices!
And when they sell their places up North and buy here they usually buy new cars here too with just the money they're saving on r.e. taxes.
And they all say; "I should have moved here ten years ago!"
It's the same way for Calif. People are moving out of that state as well.
Why pay $800k for a house there that you could buy in the Carolinas for $200k?

It is tempting to snow bird on down. Not necessarily near a beach or a metro. A small town.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 5:13:10 PM

MrRodgers

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Home prices here have already dropped 30%. Of course over the last two years...they went up 40%. When home mortgage interest rates kept going down...prices keep going up. Everybody is a capitalist.

I have no sympathy for those caught in a devalued home. The record sales of the past (2000-2005) were fueled by investors/speculators and their timing becomes all important. A friend has lost at least $150,000 net profit (capital gains no less) on one. (when you achieve those kinda returns...you sell)

Now he needs to keep it 20 more years...just manage it and all of its benefits properly along the way.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 5:34:44 PM

FatDomDaddy

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I feel not one bit sorry for lenders who loaned money to people who had no business borrowing or homeownes who borrowed beyond what the could actually afford.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 5:36:44 PM

FatDomDaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

That is a wonderful attitude.
What happens to the people who are stuck in homes that they paid big bucks for,
and now these homes have depreciated by 20% and they want to sell?

What did they think the ARM was???

You tell them they made a risky investment and that they were aware of the risk when you did it!

In other words,,,

Sorry Charlie

< Message edited by FatDomDaddy -- 12/8/2007 5:38:42 PM >

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 6:57:18 PM

MzMia

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FDD, I was not talking about the risky ARM's, I am talking about
people that took out conventional mortgages who now might see
the value in their homes decrease 30%.

If you paid $600,000 for a home 3 years ago, and now it is worth $450,000
you are up the creek if you need to sell any time soon.

< Message edited by MzMia -- 12/8/2007 6:59:32 PM >

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 7:51:58 PM

awmslave

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Bad news for some, good news to others.
Good news for foreigners: dollar gets cheap, Americans in deep debt, it's soon time to buy some property in US.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/8/2007 10:12:31 PM

petdave

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Hell, i've got a house. i'm waiting for the prices of former auto repair shops to go down, preferably air conditioned and with the lifts still intact, because holy shit, steel is gettting more expensive by the day!

And sales people can make money anywhere. It's a weird quirk of our fucked-up economy. The people who actually MAKE things get dick, but the people who sell them roll in Benz-o's, even though they contribute exactly nothing in the grand scheme of things. Bizarre.

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RE: Housing prices could fall by 30 %.....! - 12/9/2007 12:14:48 AM

subfever

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quote:

ORIGINAL: petdave

And sales people can make money anywhere. It's a weird quirk of our fucked-up economy. The people who actually MAKE things get dick, but the people who sell them roll in Benz-o's, even though they contribute exactly nothing in the grand scheme of things. Bizarre.

Bizarre?

If the people who make things made a pile of them that stacked wider and taller than a mountain, but their company didn't manage to sell any of them, what would the makers have contributed in the grand scheme of things?

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