Aswad
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Joined: 4/4/2007
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quote:
ORIGINAL: LadyEllen
The way things are going, it will soon be possible it seems to identify early on, before conception perhaps, what conditions and predispositions any of us are likely to have, based on our genetics. The implications of this regarding insurance cover of all types are enormous. I believe this is something well worth bringing to attention and discussing as the last thing any of us want I feel is a Brave New World scenario.
Quite. Already, most things can be identified early. Where I live (Norway), you can't mandate such tests, and you can't offer insurance benefits to those who submit their test results to achieve equivalent effect, so it's really very beneficial to those that can deal with potentially bad news ("hey, you're unlikely to make it to 50", as a friend of mine got to hear at 25).
Insurance is fairly simple. There is only one thing that allows money to be earned from insurance: accurate discrimination. Statistics is the most, and currently only, effective way to do this, preferrably with as accurate and specific statistics as possible. Genetics often give very accurate and specific statistics. In order to safeguard against a general loss, or miscalculation, you insure your insurance company against that via Lloyds, IIRC. The battle to avoid having them maximize profits is rather futile: it's their job, as mandated by law (maximize shareholder profits). They are a parasite that can only exist when there is no altruistic mechanism that covers the mass need for a safety net, and can never generate value, only introduce a dependency that can be leeched for money for those that can afford to get into the market. Kind of like illegal drugs.
Brave New World... I remember reading that; most boring book I ever read, although he did cover the most basic points, yes. Eugenics can be a scary direction, and I don't think there's a way to avoid it, although it might hopefully turn out better than BNW. It will happen, though, baring a global theocracy or somesuch, because upping the ante for a competitive advantage will always be the rational choice in modern society.
Being a transhumanist, I'm rather curious how this stuff will turn out, though.
There are other things that are more near-term future than BNW that will have similar impact. For instance, I'd predict that it will be about 30-50 more years until the combined technology of speech recognition (understanding a voice), language recognition ("getting" the meaning of language) and optical object recognition (sight; allowing for constructs of language to be attached to concepts and objects) will obviate the need for most current professions that are not restricted to the intellectual elite. Cognition will probably remain an important parameter for at least 40 more years after that, but "merely" above-average intelligence will be rendered superfluous by the use of genetic algorithm optimization and the bulk of the "elite" being superfluous themselves due to a smaller market. Average and below will become unneccessary very quickly, though, as there will be above-average out-of-job people to fill the positions that use the employee as anything more than a robot with proper sight and speech (which, as I said, will be available in 30-50 years IMO, and probably at a reasonable cost).
I'd worry about that instead, but that's just me. Food for thought, anyway.
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RE: Obesity Gene Discovered - not another fat thread! - 
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