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Termyn8or -> RE: Lottery Tickets for Presents (12/26/2006 1:09:27 AM)
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subfever, I couldn't put it better myself.
Math is indeed the key to gambling. Instinct and hunches are bullshit, they cannot change the cards in your hand nor anyone else's, and I mean that figuratively as well.
Picture this.
We arrive at the track, Northfield. She hangs on me and everything is cool. Even if I lost every dime I wasn't really a loser. She knows nothing,,,,,,,yet.
"Hurry and place your bet dear, there's only four minutes left"
WRONG, and typical. This is how they make their money, well they ain't making it off of me. I continue to watch the board for falling odds. This is why we came in the middle of the week when it isn't quite as busy. You can get a bet in at one minute or less before race time, there are no lines.
I go up to the window and place a two buck bet across the board on four horses in a nine horse race. It returns only $15, the bet was $24. she says I lost, I say no, I didn't lose until I am done. I was taught right, go in with enough money to stay in the game long enough until your time comes around. It also might not, so be ready to lose it all.
Second race my standard trackbustin $24 bet yields $122. She says I won, and I said not yet. The next two races I lose a piece of that but then I hit. One favorite, one longshot and one in the middle, $235 for a $24 bet. She says I won. I said not necessarily.
So I bet two more races and about break even, and say to her, now I won. She is puzzled, so I explain.
We are walking out the door. I am about $150 ahead or so, I am NOW a winner, but I cannot be a winner until I walk out the door. And always remember hon, if you always stay until you are out of money, you will always be a loser. Sometimes it is time to take what you got and go. And that time is now.
Actually I would almost be insulted if someone gave me lotterry tickets as a gift. Most of my friends know it, just hope all of them do. Lottery tickets are a sucker bet.
Need I define sucker bet ? OK I will. Gambling successfully is based on math. Odds and pot odds. Like in a game of poker, you have to be aware of how much of YOUR money is in that pot, how much is there overall and what are your odds of getting it.
These are the three factors in the equation. If you keep playing with the same group you might find a weakness to exploit. And don't feel bad about it, your opponent would take your money just as fast. You are engaged in a game of sport, money just makes it important. That is also why you don't bet the house payment.
As nice as horse racing is, nothing beats a poker game. Mano - a - Mano. Seven guys at the table, there will be winners and losers, but nobody has the edge. Except for those who know what they are doing.
If someone gave me a lottery ticket I am just as likely to burn it as to find out if it is a winner. Now that is hardcore, I admit. So what ?
T
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