BoscoX
Posts: 12182
Joined: 12/10/2016 Status: offline
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Let's talk about that. quote:
Democrats rigged the maps to maximize their share of Congressional seats. It is absolutely justified for us to do it too. Republican voters (top numbers) vs. their Congressional Representation (bottom numbers) California: 40% of the statewide vote 17% of the seats (9 out of 52) Massachusetts: 35% of the statewide vote 0% of the seats (0 out of 9) Connecticut: 38% of the statewide vote 0% of the seats (0 out of 5) New York: 42% of the statewide vote 26.9% of the seats (7 out of 26) New Jersey: 43% of the statewide vote 25% of the seats (3 out of 12) Maryland: 38% of the statewide vote 12% of the seats (1 out of 8) New Mexico: 44% of the statewide vote 0% of the seats (0 out of 3) Hawaii: 30% of the statewide vote 0% of the seats (0 out of 2) Oregon: 42% of the statewide vote 16% of the seats (1 out of 6) Washington: 38% of the statewide vote 20% of the seats (2 out of 10) Rhode Island: 38% of the statewide vote 0% of the seats (0 out of 2) https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1950579893395239120 1. CaliforniaClaim: 40% of statewide vote, 17% of seats (9 out of 52). Analysis: California has 52 congressional districts. 17% of 52 is approximately 8.84, rounded to 9 seats. The 40% vote share aligns with historical Republican performance in California House elections. In 2022, Republicans won 9 seats (17.3% of 52) despite Democrats dominating due to urban concentration (Los Angeles Times, 2025-07-25). The 2024 NPR live results and Reuters data suggest a similar split, with Republicans holding around 9-10 seats despite a competitive vote share, reflecting the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission’s maps. The 40% figure is plausible if it aggregates 2024 House votes, where Republicans often polled 35-40% statewide (e.g., 2020 presidential vote was 34.3% for Trump). Verdict: Likely accurate, within a 1-2% margin for vote share. 2. MassachusettsClaim: 35% of statewide vote, 0% of seats (0 out of 9). Analysis: Massachusetts has 9 districts. The 0% seat claim matches the 2024 delegation, with all 9 seats held by Democrats (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 35% vote share is consistent with Republican performance in recent elections; in 2020, Trump received 32.1% of the presidential vote, and 2022 House votes showed a similar trend. The Democracy Journal (2023-09-14) notes Republicans get about a third of the vote but no seats due to winner-take-all dynamics and Democratic-leaning redistricting. Verdict: Accurate, though vote share may edge toward 32-38% based on historical data. 3. ConnecticutClaim: 38% of statewide vote, 0% of seats (0 out of 5). Analysis: Connecticut has 5 districts, all Democratic in 2024 (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 38% vote share aligns with Republican trends; in 2020, Trump got 39.2%, and 2022 House votes hovered around 35-40%. Redistricting by the Democratic-controlled legislature (Ballotpedia) likely packed Republican voters into uncompetitive districts. Verdict: Accurate, with vote share possibly ranging 35-40%. 4. New YorkClaim: 42% of statewide vote, 26.9% of seats (7 out of 26). Analysis: New York has 26 districts. 26.9% of 26 is about 7 seats, matching the 2024 Republican delegation (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 42% vote share fits 2020 (Trump: 37.7%) and 2024 House trends, though the independent redistricting commission’s maps (post-2021 court adjustments) limit Republican gains. The Washington Post (2021-09-27) notes Democrats could gerrymander but haven’t aggressively, suggesting the 42% reflects fair vote distribution. Verdict: Accurate, with vote share potentially 38-42%. 5. New JerseyClaim: 43% of statewide vote, 25% of seats (3 out of 12). Analysis: New Jersey has 12 districts. 25% of 12 is 3 seats, aligning with the 2024 Republican count (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 43% vote share is consistent with 2020 (Trump: 41.4%) and 2022 House votes. The state’s redistricting commission (nonpartisan but politically balanced) may underrepresent this vote share, a point raised in POLITICO (2025-07-26). Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 40-43%. 6. MarylandClaim: 38% of statewide vote, 12% of seats (1 out of 8). Analysis: Maryland has 8 districts. 12% of 8 is 0.96, rounded to 1 seat, matching the 2024 Republican delegation (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 38% vote share fits 2020 (Trump: 32.2%, with House votes slightly higher). Democratic gerrymandering is well-documented (Brennan Center, 2024-09-24), explaining the disparity. Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 35-38%. 7. New MexicoClaim: 44% of statewide vote, 0% of seats (0 out of 3). Analysis: New Mexico has 3 districts, all Democratic in 2024 (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 44% vote share is high but plausible; in 2020, Trump got 43.5%, and 2022 House votes were close. Democratic control and rural-urban splits likely nullify Republican representation. Verdict: Accurate, vote share may range 42-45%. 8. HawaiiClaim: 30% of statewide vote, 0% of seats (0 out of 2). Analysis: Hawaii has 2 districts, both Democratic in 2024 (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 30% vote share aligns with 2020 (Trump: 29.7%) and 2022 trends. The small, urban-heavy state favors Democrats, limiting Republican seats. Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 28-32%. 9. OregonClaim: 42% of statewide vote, 16% of seats (1 out of 6). Analysis: Oregon has 6 districts. 16% of 6 is 0.96, rounded to 1 seat, matching the 2024 Republican count (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 42% vote share fits 2020 (Trump: 40.4%) and 2022 House votes. The Democratic-leaning redistricting (AP, 2021-09-04) explains the gap. Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 40-42%. 10. WashingtonClaim: 38% of statewide vote, 20% of seats (2 out of 10). Analysis: Washington has 10 districts. 20% of 10 is 2 seats, matching the 2024 Republican delegation (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 38% vote share aligns with 2020 (Trump: 38.8%) and 2022 trends. The nonpartisan commission’s maps limit Republican gains. Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 36-38%. 11. Rhode IslandClaim: 38% of statewide vote, 0% of seats (0 out of 2). Analysis: Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democratic in 2024 (NPR, 2025-07-29). The 38% vote share fits 2020 (Trump: 38.6%) and 2022 House votes. Democratic dominance and small size explain the 0% seat share. Verdict: Accurate, vote share possibly 36-39%. Counter-Examples from X ThreadThe reply by @rm041923 provides Republican-leaning states (e.g., Tennessee, Alabama) where Democrats get 30-40% of the vote but 0-16% of seats, mirroring the original post’s pattern. This symmetry supports the idea that gerrymandering is bipartisan, as noted in the Brennan Center (2024-09-24) and Wikipedia (2025-03-11), with gaps of +14.4% to +40% favoring the majority party.Overall AssessmentAccuracy: The numbers are largely accurate based on 2024 election outcomes, 2020-2022 trends, and post-2020 redistricting effects. Vote shares (30-44%) are within 2-3% of historical and projected 2024 data, reflecting two-party vote aggregates. Seat percentages (0-26.9%) match NPR and Reuters 2024 delegations, consistent with gerrymandered maps drawn by Democratic legislatures. Limitations: Exact 2024 vote shares aren’t fully available, so reliance on 2020-2022 data adjusted for redistricting introduces minor uncertainty. Mid-decade redistricting (e.g., Texas proposal) could alter 2026 outcomes, but the post focuses on current (2024) representations. Supporting Evidence: The Brennan Center (2024-09-24) estimates gerrymandering shifted 16 seats in 2024, with Democratic states like California etc
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Thought Criminal
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