Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (Full Version)

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Greta75 -> Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 8:00:47 AM)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVsDEXZX0b8

This guy has accurately used science to predict the winner since 1984. And according to science. Trump will win!

And ya know what? It's the people voting for Jill Stein and Gary Johnson that is gonna help Trump Win! He is right!

Because Al Gore lost thanks to Nader gaining popularity back then!



dcnovice -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 9:11:02 AM)

The professor also went on to note that because Trump is a type of candidate that has never been seen before, this election is the most difficult for his system to predict. “We've never before seen a candidate who's spent his life enriching himself at the expense of others. He's the first candidate in our history to be a serial fabricator, making up things as he goes along,” Lichtman said.

* * *

Lichtman’s prediction system accounts for popular vote, but does not account for the electoral college, which is what will likely decide who the next U.S. President is.

* * *

As Dr. Lichtman says, this election is truly unlike any we’ve ever seen before, making it extremely difficult to predict who will win.

https://www.merryjane.com/news/election-prediction-Trump-Clinton



WickedsDesire -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 9:46:08 AM)

Possible he will win....I dont change my mind often but I have with frighty-hair-man. I initially said yes, then the more i saw creatures mad waffle I thought to myself the man has no brain how/who is he annimated and thought nope. But the polls, well the ones I follow are 47%-43% now...A swing of 2% is needed - the key grounds(states) I am not sure of those electoral nuances.

The man is a creature, bereft of money, and predatory to the women and a brain that would not worry the village idiot. Tis too late for him to be removed by the GOP i wonder why they did not

He cannot be allowed to become president. He appeals to the lowest common denominator . I am not working out the maths what percentage of the eligible electorate put him as the man who would be king. Was it even 20% I wonder? (not unusual in the nominee battles)



Lucylastic -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 10:10:57 AM)

There have been three debates, tapes, groping accusations since he made that prognostication.
I wonder what he says now..




WickedsDesire -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 10:19:43 AM)

But he has rebounded....the creature is fuking teflon If he wants to win as i said way back in the beginning he must continue the character assassination - I wonder how that would stand up in a court of law...i see he favours mad waffle and lies - elements of truths perhaps within the odd one of his mad rambles....yet he is by far the worse.

he also needs to punch someone - trust me on these matters -preferably an anarchist with left wing tendancies attacking him.

I thought your cia would have put a stop to him anyway - wonders who leaked that hot-mic-tape



Wayward5oul -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 10:24:13 AM)

And there are other predictors that have been accurate for far longer than 1984, such as who carries certain states. And those that I looked at all have Clinton winning.



TheUltimate4Him -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 11:29:11 AM)

There are several groups of people that will put Trump on top:
1. Mature white men who have been fired from white and blue collar jobs
2. Women who are smart enough to understand the safety of their families is more important than making a woman president
3. People who understand that we give more to illegal immigrants than to our own citizens. Welfare, housing, education for their kids, healthcare, phones, food, etc.
4. Veterans and patriotic individuals
5. People of Christian faith who didn't come out for Mitt Romney last time. These folks have had enough of our government telling them we can't bring a bible to school or say Merry Christmas but teach children in school about the Muslim religion.
6. People who haven't voted in years or whom have never voted. This time they know how important it is to vote.

Three of the most respected polls have Trump winning. But the media intentionally do not share those polls on air. 97% of journalists are democrats. That tells you all you need to know about who they want to win.






dcnovice -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 11:38:00 AM)

quote:

Three of the most respected polls have Trump winning.

Which polls are they?


quote:

But the media intentionally do not share those polls on air.

Then how did you find out about them?



TheUltimate4Him -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 12:05:07 PM)

Trump leads in 3 respected polls: Investors business daily, Rasmussen, LA Times/USC. I read businessinsider.com and other online blogs because regular CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC are all run by democrats.



PeonForHer -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 1:43:37 PM)

Clinton is going to win. Only right wing fruitcake organisations using quack-science methodology say otherwise, Greta.

It's time to move on and start thinking about how the right wing in US politics might be able to revive itself after Trump has so comprehensively trashed it. I mean, let's face it, Trump has fucked up right wing politics more completely than all the liberals in the USA put together, for decades gone by, have ever managed to do, hasn't he? How on earth is that going to get turned around?



tweakabelle -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 2:06:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him

Trump leads in 3 respected polls: Investors business daily, Rasmussen, LA Times/USC. I read businessinsider.com and other online blogs because regular CNN, MSNBC, CBS, ABC, NBC are all run by democrats.

One of the most highly regarded political prediction sites is Nate Silver's 538 site. This site runs aggregates of all polls and puts them through computer simulations 20,000 times to find a result. It has Clinton an 85% favourite.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

This site doesn't share your regard for Rasmussen polls, rating it at C+. Of the 27 national polls conducted in October listed on the 538 site, C- is the lowest rank. Only 2 of these 27 have Trump ahead and then it's by a single point in both cases. Clinton leads in the other 25 with margins ranging from 3 to 13 points, typically being about 7-9 points.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

Another highly regarded site is the Princeton Election Consortium. It's prediction is even higher:"Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 97%, Bayesian 99%
http://election.princeton.edu/

Perhaps you might benefit from widening your information sources.



Wayward5oul -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 2:14:07 PM)

I will be so glad when this is over and maybe we won't have to listen to the deluded Trump supporters anymore. Never in my life have I witnesses such lengths that people will go to in order to defend a person.



Lucylastic -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 2:19:56 PM)

Right now its still in the realm of possibility, that is way too close for comfort. In my humble opinion.



Wayward5oul -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 2:24:23 PM)

I am being positive. Counting my chickens before they hatch. It is just unthinkable that he could actually win.



freedomdwarf1 -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 2:35:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
There are several groups of people that will put Trump on top:
1. Mature white men who have been fired from white and blue collar jobs

As opposed to whom??
Hispanics or blacks that aren't ever offered those jobs in the first place to get fired from??

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
2. Women who are smart enough to understand the safety of their families is more important than making a woman president

And why is he advocating less gun control whereas Hillary is wanting more?
The US has the most disgraceful gun death record of all OECD countries.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
3. People who understand that we give more to illegal immigrants than to our own citizens. Welfare, housing, education for their kids, healthcare, phones, food, etc.

Got a cite for that?
I don't hear that illegals get more than US citizens.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
4. Veterans and patriotic individuals

I don't see that the circus peanut is any better than Hillary.
We have a friend in NC who is a Vet and he's voting for Hillary.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
5. People of Christian faith who didn't come out for Mitt Romney last time. These folks have had enough of our government telling them we can't bring a bible to school or say Merry Christmas but teach children in school about the Muslim religion.

And so they should.
The more diverse the religious education, the less likelihood of religious tension.
Not everyone in the US is a christian.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
6. People who haven't voted in years or whom have never voted. This time they know how important it is to vote.

I don't see this as different to any other year when it comes to the importance of voting.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheUltimate4Him
...97% of journalists are democrats. That tells you all you need to know about who they want to win.

You have a cite for that figure?
Or is it just your opinion because you don't agree with them??



Greta75 -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 3:45:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: PeonForHer

Clinton is going to win. Only right wing fruitcake organisations using quack-science methodology say otherwise, Greta.

It's time to move on and start thinking about how the right wing in US politics might be able to revive itself after Trump has so comprehensively trashed it. I mean, let's face it, Trump has fucked up right wing politics more completely than all the liberals in the USA put together, for decades gone by, have ever managed to do, hasn't he? How on earth is that going to get turned around?

Considering Brexit happens, despite polls showing that it won't happen, and you guys got Boris Johnson as Foreign Minister, you still have so much faith Trump won't win?



freedomdwarf1 -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 3:53:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Greta75

quote:

ORIGINAL: PeonForHer

Clinton is going to win. Only right wing fruitcake organisations using quack-science methodology say otherwise, Greta.

It's time to move on and start thinking about how the right wing in US politics might be able to revive itself after Trump has so comprehensively trashed it. I mean, let's face it, Trump has fucked up right wing politics more completely than all the liberals in the USA put together, for decades gone by, have ever managed to do, hasn't he? How on earth is that going to get turned around?

Considering Brexit happens, despite polls showing that it won't happen, and you guys got Boris Johnson as Foreign Minister, you still have so much faith Trump won't win?


The polls showed a very close call on Brexit - and it will happen as we won the vote.
BJ is an intelligent guy and was successful London mayor for quite a long while.
Not so with the circus peanut.
Hillary is showing as much as 13 points ahead depending on who you read.
I have every faith that he won't win.



PeonForHer -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 3:56:50 PM)

quote:

Considering Brexit happens, despite polls showing that it won't happen, and you guys got Boris Johnson as Foreign Minister, you still have so much faith Trump won't win?


Yup! [:)]



tamaka -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 9:15:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PeonForHer

Clinton is going to win. Only right wing fruitcake organisations using quack-science methodology say otherwise, Greta.

It's time to move on and start thinking about how the right wing in US politics might be able to revive itself after Trump has so comprehensively trashed it. I mean, let's face it, Trump has fucked up right wing politics more completely than all the liberals in the USA put together, for decades gone by, have ever managed to do, hasn't he? How on earth is that going to get turned around?


I guess just sit back and see how bad it gets with Hillary in charge. If she makes things bad enough it will give the Republicans a platform for change.



kickable650 -> RE: Scientific Method Predicts Trump Win (10/22/2016 9:38:27 PM)

Trump has less than a 2 in 10 chance or winning.



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