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FunCouple5280 -> RE: Renewable energy equals (5/3/2013 10:09:37 AM)
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1) Solar still accounts for less than 1% of our energy consumption in the US. We've got a ways to go before solar installation jobs evaporate. We don't worry about housing construction jobs- do we? However, manufacturing of PV panels is a highly automated, capital intensive process- the jobs are in building the plant. Yet if we are buying foriegn panels the money goes eslewhere
2) China has badly screwed up in the PV market. PV panel (not module) prices have been in free fall. Crystalline Si panels have fallen from about $1.90/watt in 2010 to about $0.63/watt now. This was because the bank of China (there is only one bank in China) gave loans to companies using physical plant as collateral. Given the glut on the market, this was an expensive strategy. The Bank of China will now only give loans based on projects. The Chinese need a good spanking
3) In 2010- module producers had about a 30% margin. Its a lot lower now. I don't know how anyone can make money producing PV panels now. Most manufacturing is a at 10% therefore as long as they are near that they should be fine....However, the US is preventing the construction of more silicon refineries, which is vital to the cost of the industry and we are importing that as well
4) In countries like India and other parts of the developing world though- PV and wind are the lowest cost option since diesel generation is the competition. In rural areas thats true, however who there can afford the massive upfront capital of AE systems. We have been playing in the 3rd worlf for 3 years with very little traction.
5) It's still difficult to estimate the subsidy of gas/oil. Historically, probably 1/3rd of our military budget went to securing the world's oil transportation network- especially in the Mideast. That's why I asked
6) In terms of oil- the US is now ranked #3 globally, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. If Canada's tar sands are added in--we're #1. Combined with gas, this is why we're now a net energy exporter. good for our economy
7) There is no carbon tax on oil/gas/coal. Absent a carbon tax, it's impossible to tell what subsidies or price supports existing technologies receive. I hate the notion of a carbon tax (we breath and produce carbon, and trees are technically a renewable resource), first ditch the paleo subsidies, then go after not emissions but efficiency
8) Permitting of PV in Cali. is a nightmare. Approx. 1/3rd of the costs are "soft cost" i.e. permitting. One of the reasons that Germany has much greater utilization of PV is the lower permitting costs and the speed of installation- same in Japan. This cost is not inherent to the technology- much of it is due to utilities intransigence. Cali is fucked up and it is their fault much of it to do with left wing environmental conflicts---they want the PV to save the plante but won't harm a beatle to do it, so it is a merry-go-round of shit. Permitting is easy here in CO
9) Rooftop leasing in the US is an artificial phenomena because of tax incentives for businesses that allow full depreciation of a panel compared to 30% for homeowners. Other parts of the world- people own the panels on their roofs. If you only knew how corrupt the leasors are and how they are raping the tax payer, you would ban them.
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