Housing Starts, Up..... (Full Version)

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Owner59 -> Housing Starts, Up..... (3/19/2013 1:01:14 PM)


We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]




"Gains in Permits Signal Sustained U.S. Housing Rebound"



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-climbed-0-8-in-february-to-917-000-rate.html




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/19/2013 4:39:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]

"Gains in Permits Signal Sustained U.S. Housing Rebound"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-climbed-0-8-in-february-to-917-000-rate.html


Let's hope it continues. Here in the Seattle market, housing is pretty much on fire....every buildable lot is being gobbled up.




DesideriScuri -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/19/2013 6:58:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]
"Gains in Permits Signal Sustained U.S. Housing Rebound"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-climbed-0-8-in-february-to-917-000-rate.html


My only concern is whether the excess inventory has been taken out. If not, isn't this just re-inflating the bubble?




DaNewAgeViking -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/19/2013 10:07:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]


So...how is The Shrub to be thanked for this housing upturn, unless of course one acknowledges that he caused the 'downturn' which is now 'upturning'?
[sm=dunno.gif]




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/24/2013 6:23:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59
We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]
"Gains in Permits Signal Sustained U.S. Housing Rebound"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-climbed-0-8-in-february-to-917-000-rate.html


My only concern is whether the excess inventory has been taken out. If not, isn't this just re-inflating the bubble?




Just heard on the news this morning (probably got the numbers wrong, but this was the essence of the report):

Atlanta has just 27 days of (housing) inventory available, Chicago, 6 weeks, Seattle, 9 weeks, somewhere in Kansas, 8 weeks, houses in Seattle are staying on the market (when listed fairly as to price) about 4 - 6 days, with multiple offers (don't know about the other cities, but I'd guess that's happening there as well).




DarkSteven -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/24/2013 6:47:43 PM)

Hmmm. IMO, it's due to two things:

1. Pent up demand finally getting released.
2. Low interest rates.

Whatever, it's good news.




tj444 -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/24/2013 7:39:14 PM)

FR-

Its still hard for many people to get mortgages.. and real unemployment is still high.. (& its gonna be a while before interest rates start creeping up.. the govt would have to pay more then for their huge debt too, dont forget)

I think part is that some of the foreclosures have been sold to groups that are renting them out so those arent being put on the market (maybe in 4 or 5 years when prices are way up, then they will cash out).. I know of one such group of investors (they buy at auctions mostly, so those properties dont hit the retail market/MLS).. they give a choice.. rent or rent with option to buy (so a built-in buyer in a few years).. & I know of a builder in CA that gives 3 choices- rent, buy, or rent with option to buy.. Just cuz there is a building permit adding to the building starts doesnt mean they are all being sold.. some builders have been building but renting some units out just to hang on to their workers while they wait for things to get better..

and the banks are pricing their foreclosures much higher now so buyers are doing the math and figuring out that rather than buy a wreck of a foreclosure and pay the cost of renovating, many more better reasons to buy a new house that is more of what you want, better layout & design, in a better area, etc etc for not that much more.. so more/increasing demand for new homes vs older homes/junkers..

it depends on the city and area too.. silicon valley is a hot market & has been for quite a while now whereas Florida not so much.. for now at least..




DesideriScuri -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/24/2013 8:04:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
FR-
Its still hard for many people to get mortgages.. and real unemployment is still high.. (& its gonna be a while before interest rates start creeping up.. the govt would have to pay more then for their huge debt too, dont forget)
I think part is that some of the foreclosures have been sold to groups that are renting them out so those arent being put on the market (maybe in 4 or 5 years when prices are way up, then they will cash out).. I know of one such group of investors (they buy at auctions mostly, so those properties dont hit the retail market/MLS).. they give a choice.. rent or rent with option to buy (so a built-in buyer in a few years).. & I know of a builder in CA that gives 3 choices- rent, buy, or rent with option to buy.. Just cuz there is a building permit adding to the building starts doesnt mean they are all being sold.. some builders have been building but renting some units out just to hang on to their workers while they wait for things to get better..
and the banks are pricing their foreclosures much higher now so buyers are doing the math and figuring out that rather than buy a wreck of a foreclosure and pay the cost of renovating, many more better reasons to buy a new house that is more of what you want, better layout & design, in a better area, etc etc for not that much more.. so more/increasing demand for new homes vs older homes/junkers..
it depends on the city and area too.. silicon valley is a hot market & has been for quite a while now whereas Florida not so much.. for now at least..


And a building permit doesn't necessarily mean a house will be built.

I learned a lot talking to a couple builders several years back. A new development opened next to the one I was living in at the time. Lots were 1 acre each and $75k for the lot. Minimum sq. ft. for the house was 3500. All but 2 lots (I think there were around 40 total) were sold by the developer. There are 3 houses built. There are no houses being built currently. There are lots of lots for sale. The first house that went up was 3600 sq. ft. and the second house was over 5000. Lots o' money in that neighborhood.

A builder I knew had a contract to build on a lot just a couple lots down from that development. It's been 4 years since he was contracted, and pulled the permits. Ground was never broken.

Where there were once shitloads of foreclosures in my general vicinity, there are almost zero. I am willing to bet that within Toledo City Limits, there were over 100 foreclosed properties under $20k last year April (which is when I started looking for a house). Now? Zero. To be honest, I was shocked when I saw that. I looked it up online for a friend, figuring I could find something for her. Nope.

So, maybe there isn't much existing home inventory, which would make housing starts being up a very nice thing.

I wonder what is going to happen if the Fed keeps rates low (I think they're already committed to not raising them into 2014).




MrRodgers -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/24/2013 8:28:43 PM)

It is good news for the labor jobs created but otherwise only an indication that more people are still just taking on new debt to do it.

You see unlike what most of the propagandists tell you, most American, about 60% or so and still only 3 out of 5, do NOT own a home, they own a mortgage 95% of which...are 30 years. You buy one house and pay for 2.5 or 3.




tj444 -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 6:13:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Where there were once shitloads of foreclosures in my general vicinity, there are almost zero. I am willing to bet that within Toledo City Limits, there were over 100 foreclosed properties under $20k last year April (which is when I started looking for a house). Now? Zero. To be honest, I was shocked when I saw that. I looked it up online for a friend, figuring I could find something for her. Nope.


I have no idea about the Toledo mkt..

According to Dr Housing Bubble Blog, its investors, hedge funds and non-Americans that are buying up properties and paying cash.. which means they will get the sale over someone that needs a mortgage even if they offer less money.. ..some banks sell their foreclosures on auction sites too, so they likely arent in the mls listings.. I personally dont like auction sites, I have bid on a few properties but the bank (if the final bid price doesnt meet the reserve price) can say no thanks.. I have seen properties that have been on the auction sites repeatedly (so either no one wants them or the bank wants too much).. the fairest is HUD, cuz most properties on their site is offered to buyers that will live in the house first, then if no one bids its offered to anyone.. I have seen Habitat for Humanity buy some foreclosures and fix them up.. and actually, some banks do give some properties to charities, cuz then they can get the supposed "market value" as a tax deduction without the headaches.. but some charities are getting smart and not taking anything under a certain value (like $100k) cuz there are costs with properties that the charity still has to pay so it has to be worth their time, due dilligence & effort..

"Remember that 5,000,000 Americans have gone through the foreclosure process since 2007 and a few more million will do so in the next few years."
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wall-street-demand-for-rentals-reos-home-purchases-fed-rates/




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 6:19:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

It is good news for the labor jobs created but otherwise only an indication that more people are still just taking on new debt to do it.

You see unlike what most of the propagandists tell you, most American, about 60% or so and still only 3 out of 5, do NOT own a home, they own a mortgage 95% of which...are 30 years. You buy one house and pay for 2.5 or 3.


Hey...it's a start.

Owning is a good thing....buying because you think you should....not so good.

If housing fell to unfathomable valuations...I'd double/triple/quadruple down.

History proves...owning is better.

(And frankly...it's been berry berry good to me).




DesideriScuri -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 7:03:55 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Where there were once shitloads of foreclosures in my general vicinity, there are almost zero. I am willing to bet that within Toledo City Limits, there were over 100 foreclosed properties under $20k last year April (which is when I started looking for a house). Now? Zero. To be honest, I was shocked when I saw that. I looked it up online for a friend, figuring I could find something for her. Nope.

I have no idea about the Toledo mkt..
According to Dr Housing Bubble Blog, its investors, hedge funds and non-Americans that are buying up properties and paying cash.. which means they will get the sale over someone that needs a mortgage even if they offer less money.. ..some banks sell their foreclosures on auction sites too, so they likely arent in the mls listings.. I personally dont like auction sites, I have bid on a few properties but the bank (if the final bid price doesnt meet the reserve price) can say no thanks.. I have seen properties that have been on the auction sites repeatedly (so either no one wants them or the bank wants too much).. the fairest is HUD, cuz most properties on their site is offered to buyers that will live in the house first, then if no one bids its offered to anyone.. I have seen Habitat for Humanity buy some foreclosures and fix them up.. and actually, some banks do give some properties to charities, cuz then they can get the supposed "market value" as a tax deduction without the headaches.. but some charities are getting smart and not taking anything under a certain value (like $100k) cuz there are costs with properties that the charity still has to pay so it has to be worth their time, due dilligence & effort..
"Remember that 5,000,000 Americans have gone through the foreclosure process since 2007 and a few more million will do so in the next few years."
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wall-street-demand-for-rentals-reos-home-purchases-fed-rates/


I can only tell you my experience with the Toledo area when I was looking last year and then looking this past week (for someone else). I got a very sweet deal on my house and paid cash. It was a foreclosure and needed an awful lot of work that I'm hoping will be mostly completed by July (at least the HVAC by then). I'm just glad we didn't have a horrendously bitter cold winter this time 'round.




tj444 -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:09:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

I can only tell you my experience with the Toledo area when I was looking last year and then looking this past week (for someone else). I got a very sweet deal on my house and paid cash. It was a foreclosure and needed an awful lot of work that I'm hoping will be mostly completed by July (at least the HVAC by then). I'm just glad we didn't have a horrendously bitter cold winter this time 'round.


from what I have seen, the banks have stopped giving them away the way they were, those deals are gone now.. so maybe the foreclosures are still there but double the price or more..




erieangel -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:19:27 PM)

Owning is good. I wouldn't want a mortgage, though.

My house needs a lot of work and I've thought about taking out a loan to get some, if not all of the work done. Then I think, that's dumb. I can save a little bit at a time, put away my tax refund each year (or use it for a repair) and eventually the repairs will be done. It will take longer this way, but I'm not saddled with another bill. And the bank doesn't own my house, I own my house.







Real0ne -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:21:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: LookieNoNookie

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

It is good news for the labor jobs created but otherwise only an indication that more people are still just taking on new debt to do it.

You see unlike what most of the propagandists tell you, most American, about 60% or so and still only 3 out of 5, do NOT own a home, they own a mortgage 95% of which...are 30 years. You buy one house and pay for 2.5 or 3.


Hey...it's a start.

Owning is a good thing....buying because you think you should....not so good.

If housing fell to unfathomable valuations...I'd double/triple/quadruple down.

History proves...owning is better.

(And frankly...it's been berry berry good to me).




well once its paid off rent is about 1/2 price when you own and you can pound a nail in the wall without an act of congress.




Real0ne -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:24:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59


We have George Bush Jr,of course....to thank for this....[:D]




"Gains in Permits Signal Sustained U.S. Housing Rebound"



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/housing-starts-in-u-s-climbed-0-8-in-february-to-917-000-rate.html


break time its the normal business cycle, so predictable it laughable lol




Leadership525 -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:34:56 PM)

Most real estate is being purchased by foreign money mostly out of Asia, very few can currently qualify for a mortgage outside of the area around Washington DC now the richest counties in the country.... Only counties who can afford a new car loan also , government is a great gig if you know somebody to get you in , otherwise your screwed.......




Marini -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/25/2013 8:39:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Leadership525

Most real estate is being purchased by foreign money mostly out of Asia, very few can currently qualify for a mortgage outside of the area around Washington DC now the richest counties in the country.... Only counties who can afford a new car loan also , government is a great gig if you know somebody to get you in , otherwise your screwed.......


I like hearing your pov, leadership.
I hope to see you posting more often.

The USA used to be a really great country, it is certainly sliding downhill.

Peace




DesideriScuri -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/26/2013 5:46:48 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
I can only tell you my experience with the Toledo area when I was looking last year and then looking this past week (for someone else). I got a very sweet deal on my house and paid cash. It was a foreclosure and needed an awful lot of work that I'm hoping will be mostly completed by July (at least the HVAC by then). I'm just glad we didn't have a horrendously bitter cold winter this time 'round.

from what I have seen, the banks have stopped giving them away the way they were, those deals are gone now.. so maybe the foreclosures are still there but double the price or more..


When I did my searches for me, I had an upper limit that I used for results. Last week, I didn't. There simply aren't as many foreclosures around anymore. I didn't check into non-foreclosures either time, though. So, it could be that those foreclosures from a year ago, are no on the market no longer as foreclosures.




Real0ne -> RE: Housing Starts, Up..... (3/26/2013 5:47:33 AM)

and everyone gave raygun credit for russia LOL




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