RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (Full Version)

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Owner59 -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 6:59:54 AM)




"It’s widely assumed in the press that victory in the Electoral College is determined by the Gender Gap or by the Rising Tide of Hispanic Voters or whatever"


The guys writes like a blogger......."wharever".[8|]



Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 7:10:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

The guys [sic] writes like a blogger......."wharever" [sic].

Aw c'mon, that's not fair. Some people write like drunks. That doesn't mean they don't have anything intelligent to say.

K.



Owner59 -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 7:37:51 AM)

And some write like racists and get called on it in the media.


And then some deepthinker mentions how unfair the writer has been treated,....[8|].....like it was some form of credibility....[X(]


Sound familiar?




Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 7:47:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

And some write like racists and get called on it in the media.


And then some deepthinker mentions how unfair the writer has been treated,....[8|].....like it was some form of credibility....[X(]


Sound familiar?

Yeah very, sounds like you're making shit up as usual.

K.



tazzygirl -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 7:59:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

And some write like racists and get called on it in the media.


And then some deepthinker mentions how unfair the writer has been treated,....[8|].....like it was some form of credibility....[X(]


Sound familiar?




The statistics are extremely skewed.

How many are never married?

Are the demographics comparable in all those states?

According to 2010 United States Census projections, the racial and ethnic makeup of Utah are as it follows. :
84-88% White or European (one of the U.S. highest percentages of Whites/ European-Americans).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Utah

In 2010 the state with the lowest fertility rate was Rhode Island, with 1,630.5 children per thousand women, while Utah had the greatest rate with 2,449.0 children per thousand women.[37]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

There are numerous reasons why that graph is biased... intentionally.



Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 8:14:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
The statistics are extremely skewed...

In 2010 the state with the lowest fertility rate was Rhode Island, with 1,630.5 children per thousand women, while Utah had the greatest rate with 2,449.0 children per thousand women.[37]

Fertility was a factor that he looked at too, and the statistics you cite support the fertility metric at well: Utah went strongly red, at the top of the list, while Rhode Island went strongly blue, being third from the bottom.

K.



JeffBC -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 8:56:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
Im not seeing those numbers in your first link.

You wouldn't see them directly. You'd have to do as I did and copy the tabular data into Excel and sum it up adding red/blue indicators for each state.

And the second link, 2004 - 2007 numbers. I would hazard a guess that those numbers have changed drastically since.
Agreed... and in fact poverty conditions HAVE been changing dramatically (and at an increasing rate) over the last few years. It was just what I was able to find that seemed more direct than state by state.



tazzygirl -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 9:11:59 AM)

How many out of each state were never married? Its ridiculous, even on face value, to make such determinations and present them as fact without making analyses of other races.

People in some areas tend to live together these days without benefit of marriage more so than in other areas. Stating that marriage is an indicator, to me, is funny. No marriage, no divorce and, yes, not everyone lies and says they are married when they arent. Does that mean they havent been in a long term relationship for a couple of decades? My uncle and his "friend" just celebrated their 39th year together. No marriage.. so doesnt count.

I think my biggest beef with the chart is that 2000 numbers were used to correlate with a 2012 election.

I could nit pick all the erroneous assumptions made... but I simply would be wasting my time. Really, he believes that blacks and mexicans have a lower IQ than whites.

Considering that only about 1 out of 6 African-Americans has a three digit IQ, blacks spend quite a few years in school and a surprising fraction at least attempt college.

........

The average Hispanic IQ is somewhere around 91, but Hispanics don't average more schooling than blacks. In some ways, this is healthy: Hispanics with two digit IQs are more likely to go get a job than waste time at a community college.

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2005/06/aversion-to-acting-white-worse-problem.html

Nice man to quote about "racial" issues.




thishereboi -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 9:34:51 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

And some write like racists and get called on it in the media.


And then some deepthinker mentions how unfair the writer has been treated,....[8|].....like it was some form of credibility....[X(]


Sound familiar?

Yeah very, sounds like you're making shit up as usual.

K.


[:)]



Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 9:57:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

How many out of each state were never married? Its ridiculous, even on face value, to make such determinations and present them as fact without making analyses of other races...

I think my biggest beef with the chart is that 2000 numbers were used to correlate with a 2012 election.

I could nit pick all the erroneous assumptions made... but I simply would be wasting my time. Really, he believes that blacks and mexicans have a lower IQ than whites.

I don't really much care about his racial views one way or the other. He has also noted that Ashkenazi Jews have higher IQs than non-Jewish whites, and a few more things to say on that score which you wouldn't like. The point here is what factors are the Democrats facing if they want to turn Texas blue.

As for not considering other races in his marriage data, I don't know that he didn't initially (and neither do you). But judging from the numbers at the U.S. Census website, a marriage-duration metric would lose a good deal of its correlation if blacks were included. Marital Status by race, married with spouse present, shows (white versus black respectively) 56.8% versus 34.2% for men and 53.2% versus 27.5% for women.

Also, he used those year 2000 numbers on every Presidental election from 2000 through 2012 with pretty much the same result. Obviously you didn't even read the link, so there seems little reason to waste more time on your dismissal of his findings simply because you don't like his views in other matters.

K.



mnottertail -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 10:15:14 AM)

I dismissed them all simply because correlation is not causation.   Who won the superbowl?  After that, I don't even know why we had an election.  The winner of the superbowl identifies the President by significant correlation.



Owner59 -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 10:27:30 AM)

As Bird points out,he doesn`t exactly know why the demographics are changing but that that are.


This isa trend that`s been going on for years....


Whoever thought that mid-western and southern states would be voting democratic for president 20 years ago? Nevada,Colorado,Iowa etc....


Why shouldn`t it also be going on in Texas?


As well,there has been a steady assimilation of the progressive movement and values throughout the states and that trend continues.People are just more liberal and are ok with liberalism.



mnottertail -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 10:29:09 AM)

Remember, they were always heavily democratic, blue dog, yellow dog and since the republican party didnt show up until just in time for the civil war................




Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 10:42:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

I dismissed them all simply because correlation is not causation. Who won the superbowl? After that, I don't even know why we had an election. The winner of the superbowl identifies the President by significant correlation.

Okay, I'll play the rube. How exactly?

K.



Owner59 -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 10:51:51 AM)

Play?[:D]



mnottertail -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 11:00:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

I dismissed them all simply because correlation is not causation. Who won the superbowl? After that, I don't even know why we had an election. The winner of the superbowl identifies the President by significant correlation.

Okay, I'll play the rube. How exactly?

K.


K.  It aint rube.  See the last sentence you quoted above.

It is meaningless coincidence. 



Kirata -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 11:08:16 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

It is meaningless coincidence.

Granted it would be a meaningless coincidence, I thought you meant with some significant frequency. You know, like the significant frequency with which you mention blow jobs in your posts.

[:)]

K.



mnottertail -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 11:13:34 AM)

correlation is correlation, causation is causation.   correlation is not effect, nor cause.

it is as spock says, fascinating, but garbage.

There is a strong meaninful correlation and causation for me mentioning blowjobs, since I actually own the insertion tool, and women have pretty mouths, and I solicit that sort of behavior in women as pleasurable.

I do not however know who won the superbowl, but I do know who was elected president, and I do not remember what the correlation was.




tazzygirl -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 3:44:29 PM)

quote:

Also, he used those year 2000 numbers on every Presidental election from 2000 through 2012 with pretty much the same result. Obviously you didn't even read the link, so there seems little reason to waste more time on your dismissal of his findings simply because you don't like his views in other matters.


lol.. of course with the same result. [8|]

Obviously I did. But, hey, dont let that stop you. [;)]



DesideriScuri -> RE: Battleground Texas....Turning Texas Blue...... (3/1/2013 7:40:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
How many out of each state were never married? Its ridiculous, even on face value, to make such determinations and present them as fact without making analyses of other races.
People in some areas tend to live together these days without benefit of marriage more so than in other areas. Stating that marriage is an indicator, to me, is funny. No marriage, no divorce and, yes, not everyone lies and says they are married when they arent. Does that mean they havent been in a long term relationship for a couple of decades? My uncle and his "friend" just celebrated their 39th year together. No marriage.. so doesnt count.
I think my biggest beef with the chart is that 2000 numbers were used to correlate with a 2012 election.
I could nit pick all the erroneous assumptions made... but I simply would be wasting my time. Really, he believes that blacks and mexicans have a lower IQ than whites.
Considering that only about 1 out of 6 African-Americans has a three digit IQ, blacks spend quite a few years in school and a surprising fraction at least attempt college.
........
The average Hispanic IQ is somewhere around 91, but Hispanics don't average more schooling than blacks. In some ways, this is healthy: Hispanics with two digit IQs are more likely to go get a job than waste time at a community college.
http://isteve.blogspot.com/2005/06/aversion-to-acting-white-worse-problem.html
Nice man to quote about "racial" issues.


Was he reporting on what the data actually showed, or was he just making stuff up contrary to what the data showed? If we take a poll and the results showed that males had a triple digit average IQ while females had a double digit average IQ, reporting that males have a higher average IQ wouldn't be part of a campaign against women. It would be what people in the know call, statistics. Had the report stated that women have a higher average IQ based on the same data, then there would be some bias there, as the data didn't prove the claims.

If the data he's compiled showed the results he reported, where is he wrong?



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