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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 2:03:11 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I'm just happy things are turning. If it is still turning around in January (with all the seasonal work over) I'll be a damn sight happier.

Not turning as much as they would like you to believe. 300,000 new "not looking" because they have given up were dropped off. So the real rate just counting them is 8.8%. The average duration of unemployment increased to 40.9 months..a full month and a half increase over last month. And of course that is a seasonally adjusted rate...but the workforce has changed dramatically since the data thats used to make seasonal adjustments was gathered.

Unadjusted U-6 dropped .3%, of which 1/2 is likely to be seasonal/part time. So yes, minor improvement. Meanwhile forecasts of GDP growth dropped a full percent.

How much of the change do you think is seasonal workers? (thus my comment about January)

I said about half of the .3% drop.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 2:39:49 PM

subrob1967

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

I'm just happy things are turning. If it is still turning around in January (with all the seasonal work over) I'll be a damn sight happier.

They aren't... What Reuters failed to report....

quote:

The Labor Department said Friday that employers added 120,000 jobs last month. With that, the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in more than two and a half years. But a key reason for the sharp drop was that hundreds of thousands of people who could work had stopped looking for work. The report showed 487,000 people left the labor force in November -- for the Labor Department's purposes, they were not counted as unemployed.

linky

The administration DID however count all the temporary jobs created for the holidays, go figure

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 3:02:39 PM

tazzygirl

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U6 is at 15.6%.. down 0.6% from last month

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 3:10:47 PM

Lucylastic

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strange when you look at that sentence, then type it into google search, the only people that come out with that in their reports are fox news and right wing blogs and right wing forums/investors. I wonder why that is.....
the only possibility is that all MSM and left wing papers, websites, channels , tv stations etc etc are telling lies....
yep thats gotta be proof positive

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 3:15:17 PM

tazzygirl

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U1 : Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2 : Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3 : Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons

Thats why I like the U6 numbers.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 8:12:42 PM

MasterSlaveLA

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

I hope it gets a LOT better.

True dat... I'm sure the unemployed do -- big time!!!

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 8:16:32 PM

LookieNoNookie

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

The unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent in November and companies stepped up hiring, further evidence the economic recovery was gaining momentum.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 120,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, in line with economists' expectations for a gain of 122,000.

The relative strength of the report was also bolstered by revisions to the employment counts for September and October to show 72,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

While part of the decline in the unemployment rate from 9.0 percent in October was due to people leaving the labor force, the household survey from which the jobless rate is derived also showed solid gains in employment

The unemployment rate had been expected to hold at 9 percent. It last dropped by 0.4 percentage point in January.

"The really good news is that employment has grown for four months running -- in large steps. There was a solid increase in private employment. Everything there looks steady, but clearly healthy and positive," said Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/02/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7AL14I20111202?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71
I hope it gets a LOT better..

Riiiiiight....

We have 227,000 people moving into the county, or being born every month.

It takes 274,000 (new) jobs every month to just stay even...no change in the rate.

Further examination of this report shows also that unemployment claims rose in each of the last 2 weeks.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/2/2011 8:17:43 PM

LookieNoNookie

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

U1 : Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2 : Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3 : Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4 : U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5 : U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons

Thats why I like the U6 numbers.

Well (and accurately) said :)

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 3:54:33 AM

tazzygirl

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quote:

Riiiiiight....

We have 227,000 people moving into the county, or being born every month.

It takes 274,000 (new) jobs every month to just stay even...no change in the rate.

Further examination of this report shows also that unemployment claims rose in each of the last 2 weeks.

And we have 2,436,682 dying in the US last year. Around 203,000. Factor in those who cannot, phisically work who are born each year, and those who are injured beyond the ability to work each year, you might find out it comes close to breaking even.

< Message edited by tazzygirl -- 12/3/2011 4:07:09 AM >

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 4:46:35 AM

Lucylastic

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Lookie
With regard to this whole, "real" figures and publicly announced figures,
I do understand that the figures are watered, changed obfuscated and dropped.However you may want to change them, and this is NOT Pointed towards Tazzy, because she is consistent in using the U6 Figures.
This is the "official" numbers given and will be the "official figures" for the rest of the century and beyond. in ten years parties will be fighting over the unemployment rates of this year and using them like stepping stones to denounce the dems or the repubs and even maybe a third (gasp) party
We KNOW the real figures are doctored, by how much and why are fodder for the conspiracy twonks.
is it for the electioneering? probably Is it sposed to boost confidence, of course. And every single politician does the same thing.
The figures mean less to me than the thought of so many being screwed over by so few.
YMMV

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 7:41:34 AM

Aswad

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FWIW...

The news up here, having no substantial stake in the matter, are noting that by our estimates, there has been a slight improvement, marginally better than the forecast.

It could be the early hour, but some things confuse me a bit...

An unemployment rate of about 10% is essentially the average over any large stretch of time, which means what we're discussing is rooted in the model of economic growth that effectively requires consistently beating the averages by predicating current value on future earnings (indentured servitude, if you want to be sarcastic, and I kind of do). Greenspan supposedly had some interesting things to say about the importance of a precariate in maintaining a healthy economy, but I can't find the original quote, so I'm not going to get into that, save to say that what we're seeing now- by that definition- is what passes for a solid economy in some sense.

Indeed, the USA is still able to lend against future earnings with ease, as its economy is perfectly sound if one disregards the population. This, of course, just translates into deepening the situation of indentured servitude for the precarious working class. I would have to say that it is not unexpected, as it is natural to have an aristocracy living off a base that is at best plebeian, so long as one does not cull from society all elements that do not internalize some rather spartan cultural traits. That which can conquer, will do so, and that which can be readily subjugated, will be. It's a choice, and it's one we've taught ourselves that we cannot make freely. When someone does make it freely, we cry out to our masters to lock them away.

You're growing, beating the average, yet not better off... and still it's the soapbox, often none the wiser.

As for the ballot box, it's for sale, and the proletariat is flat broke.

Why even fuss about unemployment?

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 8:07:16 AM

tazzygirl

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Why the fuss?

The 10% you gave is what the U6 Unemployment rate is when the "official" (U3) numbers are 6%. In the US, its often understood that rarely will unemployment fall below 4%. The last time the numbers were consistently below 4% was in the 60's...

Currently, U6 is at 15.6%.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 10:09:35 AM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

FWIW...

The news up here, having no substantial stake in the matter, are noting that by our estimates, there has been a slight improvement, marginally better than the forecast.

It could be the early hour, but some things confuse me a bit...

An unemployment rate of about 10% is essentially the average over any large stretch of time, which means what we're discussing is rooted in the model of economic growth that effectively requires consistently beating the averages by predicating current value on future earnings (indentured servitude, if you want to be sarcastic, and I kind of do). Greenspan supposedly had some interesting things to say about the importance of a precariate in maintaining a healthy economy, but I can't find the original quote, so I'm not going to get into that, save to say that what we're seeing now- by that definition- is what passes for a solid economy in some sense.

Indeed, the USA is still able to lend against future earnings with ease, as its economy is perfectly sound if one disregards the population. This, of course, just translates into deepening the situation of indentured servitude for the precarious working class. I would have to say that it is not unexpected, as it is natural to have an aristocracy living off a base that is at best plebeian, so long as one does not cull from society all elements that do not internalize some rather spartan cultural traits. That which can conquer, will do so, and that which can be readily subjugated, will be. It's a choice, and it's one we've taught ourselves that we cannot make freely. When someone does make it freely, we cry out to our masters to lock them away.

You're growing, beating the average, yet not better off... and still it's the soapbox, often none the wiser.

As for the ballot box, it's for sale, and the proletariat is flat broke.

Why even fuss about unemployment?

Health,
al-Aswad.

WTF are you tlaking about. The long term average of unemployment in the US is 5.7%. Take your Marxist bullshit and shove it.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 7:18:23 PM

Aswad

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

WTF are you tlaking about. The long term average of unemployment in the US is 5.7%. Take your Marxist bullshit and shove it.

You give great insult by implying Marxist sympathies on my part.

It is not a warranted accusation. I would appreciate if you refrain from making it again.

And I was not talking about the long term average of the USA, nor is the age of the USA comparable to my definition of long term. If you care to read it, I can probably dig up the reference. The industrial revolution didn't make so substantial a dent in long term unemployment rates as to diverge notably from the average, but we all know there were some short term fluctuations.

Health,
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P.S.: If you intend to repeat your baseless accusation of Marxism, simply don't reply. I can debate whatever points you may have felt merited it, but I will not stand for the characterization. Do not consider this a request. It is a condition of any further exchange.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/3/2011 9:22:44 PM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aswad

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

WTF are you tlaking about. The long term average of unemployment in the US is 5.7%. Take your Marxist bullshit and shove it.

You give great insult by implying Marxist sympathies on my part.

It is not a warranted accusation. I would appreciate if you refrain from making it again.

And I was not talking about the long term average of the USA, nor is the age of the USA comparable to my definition of long term. If you care to read it, I can probably dig up the reference. The industrial revolution didn't make so substantial a dent in long term unemployment rates as to diverge notably from the average, but we all know there were some short term fluctuations.

Health,
al-Aswad.

P.S.: If you intend to repeat your baseless accusation of Marxism, simply don't reply. I can debate whatever points you may have felt merited it, but I will not stand for the characterization. Do not consider this a request. It is a condition of any further exchange.

You can put whatever fucking conditions you want on yourself. You dont like being labeled a Marxist? Then get off your fucking Marxist talking points.

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/4/2011 11:00:41 AM

Lucylastic

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It would help matters if yu understood what a marxist talking point was, as you dont, I think Aswad has a valid point. And so nicely said Mr Aswad:)

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/4/2011 11:10:29 AM

tazzygirl

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Difference between men... and... ahem

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/4/2011 11:12:14 AM

Lucylastic

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Integrity and honour against... drek

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/5/2011 11:47:22 AM

thompsonx

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quote:

You can put whatever fucking conditions you want on yourself. You dont like being labeled a Marxist? Then get off your fucking Marxist talking points

Which marxists talking points were you refering to?

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RE: Unemployment down to 8.6 percent! - 12/5/2011 4:41:40 PM

Aswad

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It isn't really very relevant what points he was referring to at this point. As per the terms of service, he should have refrained from replying when I explicitly said I did not wish to communicate further with him if he were to reiterate the accusation. I'm not going to report it, obviously, but neither will I deign to take him seriously enough to attempt any exchange on the subject when there is no real interest in an exchange.

Unlike him, I actually live in a country where Marxism is a real factor in politics, one I've been fighting against for the bulk of my adult life, and which could easily have made me every bit as biased as Ayn Rand if circumstances had been just slightly different. If he wished to give offense, he succeeded, but it is a quite fleeting thing when compared to the reality of dealing with such superficiality in people who have a real say in my life, and far more easily dealt with by simply ignoring his statements.

As a side note, unemployment rates here are fairly low in comparison to the USA, despite insane taxes, and the majority of the rich have voiced the opinion that it would be a good idea to tax the rich more at this point, and to cut taxes for the lower half of the working class. We do have strong lobbying, but it's tied more to politics and oil than to all the paper money, so to speak. Doesn't make it less problematic, in principle, but we don't have the same level of social problems per capita. The recession is so far buffered a fair bit by the increased oil prices from the "unrest" in the Middle East, although a lot of candidates for the US presidential election are of a mind to make it felt even here, by substantially worsening the situation for the US "precariat", to borrow a fairly descriptive term.

We do follow the issues in the USA, and while distance may cause some nuances to be lost, there is also vto be said for not having a political or emotional stake in the outcome when evaluating the consequences for the economy and the general population. And the analyses made, even by our fiscally conservative right wing, agrees far more with the left in the USA than with the right. The counterintellectualist stranglehold that appears in evidence among large segments of the US right wing does not make me inclined to lend them as much credence as they ascribe to themselves, either. Which is kind of a pity, as I have fiscally conservative right wing leanings myself, and favor a light weight government.

Kirata quoted Voltaire: "It's better to have a thousand idiots attacking your views than one idiot supporting them."

That seems uniquely relevant to the right wing position in the USA at the moment.

Health,
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