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Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 2:47:14 PM   
Lucylastic


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Status: offline 		http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52370.htmlThe nation’s unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March, from 8.9 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday. The gains tracked with the optimistic expectations of Wall Street analysts, who had predicted an expansion of 180,000 to 200,000 jobs. Total nonfarm payrolls rose 216,000 last month, driven by private-sector growth of 230,000 jobs. Services, which include health care, hospitality and finance, added 199,000 jobs. The unemployment rate has declined a full percentage point since November 2010, helping to shape a narrative of an economy in recovery. But the year’s first quarter has added uncertainty to that picture — an earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan has threatened automotive and electronics industry supply chains and continued unrest in the Middle East has driven a spike in oil prices.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52370.html#ixzz1IJJD8xps

Hey right now Ill take a "little" good news over more whinging about why Libya should be bombed off the face of the earth and Obama needs to be impeached


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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 3:08:54 PM   
Kirata


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

The nation’s unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent in March, from 8.9 percent in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Friday.

Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Rate at 10.0% in March

Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 10.0% in March -- down from 10.2% in mid-March and 10.3% at the end of February, but above the 9.8% at the end of January. U.S. unemployment was 10.4% at the end of March a year ago.



K.



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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 3:25:11 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		Kirata, I did actually see the gallup figures too.... im in a quandry because I do tend to take gallup with more than a pinch of salt
the Bureau of Labor statistics says
dated april 1st
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health
care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued
to trend up.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons (13.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.8
percent) changed little in March. The labor force also was little changed over
the month. Since November 2010, the jobless rate has declined by 1.0 percentage
point. (See table A-1.)

Maybe they are taking the piss????


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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 5:23:23 PM   
Fellow


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Status: offline 		The best job report analysis is usually provided by M. Shedlock;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/bls-jobs-report-nonfarm-payroll-216000.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=FeedBurner

To me, we are looking at noise dependent on methodology and interpretation. There is no driver or demand for a significant job growth.   The way things are going should be a great concern to everybody.

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 5:44:25 PM   
DarkSteven


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Status: offline 		I didn't understand the article's statement that the crises in the Middle East and Japan will damage the US economy. To my way of thinking, the fact that they are no longer desirable tourist destinations, and the fact that Japan needs lots of emergency services/equipment, will actually help the US economy.

The only issue is that a lot of electronics will be stopped because of reliance on Japanese parts.


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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 6:04:44 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

I didn't understand the article's statement that the crises in the Middle East and Japan will damage the US economy. To my way of thinking, the fact that they are no longer desirable tourist destinations, and the fact that Japan needs lots of emergency services/equipment, will actually help the US economy.

The only issue is that a lot of electronics will be stopped because of reliance on Japanese parts.



I was at a party the other day, speaking with a guy who owns a small chain of electronics stores. He said, "Don't look for any sales on cameras in the next few months; nobody knows when we're getting any more. If there's something you've been thinking of buying, grab it while it's still in stock." He may have been speaking at least somewhat hyperbolically, but at the same time, he wasn't smiling, either.

This is just one of the ripple effects we here will be seeing in the next weeks in month. Automakers are already missing production quotas because they're not getting parts; what's next? China and India may have cornered the market on cheap manufacturing, but a whole lot of really important shit still gets made in Japan.

< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 4/1/2011 6:05:42 PM >

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 6:23:29 PM   
defiantbadgirl


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Status: offline 		What a joke. The unemployment rate doesn't count the unemployed who no longer receive unemployment checks. It doesn't count the people who can only find part time work. Employment is employment - even if it's only 10 hours a week. Also, what types of jobs are on the increase? Do they pay a living wage of $60,000/yr or under $10 an hour?What I'd like to see is more surveys showing the percentage of under employed Americans.

< Message edited by defiantbadgirl -- 4/1/2011 6:24:21 PM >

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 6:28:47 PM   
Edwynn


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The BLS is the only official source of the most recent US monthly unemployment data in the world.

Professionals, whether in public or private (corporate) or non-profit organizations, use official sources only for the basic data on which to base the various analysese from which to proceed further as to best benefit their own client's needs.


Being such that the world's largest governments' various treasury departments or their equivalent, and same central banks, and international multi-billion dollar/euro corporations and largest private fixed income funds and public and private pension funds have so much riding on this data (some tens of trillions altogether), this need for the most reliable source should be understandable. It would be safe to assume then that these same "big players" would have quite the small army of financial and economist professionals to ascertain for themselves the implications or potential repercussions of the basic data as provided.

I'd think that it should go with out saying that the BLS has bigger fish to fry than to pad statistics for sake of political considerations that are so easily dealt with by way of media pacification or easily accomplished distraction elsewhere. 



If one wishes to obtain unemployment data (in the US or many other countries) over a lengthier time frame, then the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) from the US Department of Commerce , or the OECD  (international economic data), and most suchlike departments of many governments are available to the task.



Lucy chose the source of the pros.







< Message edited by Edwynn -- 4/1/2011 6:47:30 PM >

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 6:35:24 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		Try Gallup,they have the culled numbers and the under employed
its horrendous, but sometimes you go for even tiny good signs
I believe I said why


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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 6:38:22 PM   
Fellow


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quote:

I didn't understand the article's statement that the crises in the Middle East and Japan will damage the US economy.


High oil price is very damaging to US economy. Japan problem is financial. Japan holds close to a trillion of US debt. Obviously, they will use part of it for reconstruction. It will weaken the dollar.

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 7:40:53 PM   
Edwynn


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Joined: 10/26/2008
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Whether speaking of unemployment or underemployment numbers, the instantaneous figure is not as important as the trend.


If an economy be in some mode of regular output, then increase in part time hours as regular hours remain in stasis or in slight decline, things might not be heading in the best direction, as the preceding scenario indicates lack of confidence in where things are headed on the part of the producers.

When part time hours increase in the midst of a downturn, then one might surmise that companies are merely being cautious and avoiding exogenous false hope. They are keeping the lines open and are in fact oiling things up in anticipation of  some anticipated improvement in the economic situation.



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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 7:44:56 PM   
cuckoldmepls


Posts: 855
Joined: 11/29/2007
Status: offline 		NBC news explained how they come up with these figures. It's ridiculous. They call 60,000 people randomly at the same time each month. I can't remember the whole story, but they also said the real unemployment rate is over 15% when you calculate in the other figures that they ignore such as part time workers who would like to find a full time job.

It's kind of like the consumer price index. They don't include the cost of food and energy so it is very deceptive. The government only tells you what they want you to hear. When are you going to figure that out?

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 7:57:19 PM   
rulemylife


Posts: 14614
Joined: 8/23/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

The best job report analysis is usually provided by M. Shedlock;
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/bls-jobs-report-nonfarm-payroll-216000.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=FeedBurner

To me, we are looking at noise dependent on methodology and interpretation. There is no driver or demand for a significant job growth.   The way things are going should be a great concern to everybody.



To me you look to nonsensical websites to support what you want to believe.

I think this from your link sums it up:

To sign up for a free copy of our Monthly Client Newsletter, please register your email address at the bottom of the Sitka Pacific Commentary Page. Buy Gold and Silver Online at GoldMoney
The Best Way to Buy Gold and Silver



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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 8:26:32 PM   
outhere69


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Joined: 1/25/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
I didn't understand the article's statement that the crises in the Middle East and Japan will damage the US economy. To my way of thinking, the fact that they are no longer desirable tourist destinations, and the fact that Japan needs lots of emergency services/equipment, will actually help the US economy.

The only issue is that a lot of electronics will be stopped because of reliance on Japanese parts.

The problem is that so many industries run "just in time" production lines.  Auto components for US-assembled cars are running out, a lot of semiconductor houses are down (can't remember if it's Nikon or Canon, but there entire set of facilities that does the sensors and LCDs went down), some battery manufacturers are down, etc.  Facilities that are still up are having problems due to fractured transportation networks.

Crises in the Middle East drive up petroleum costs, which drive up our transportation costs.

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 4/1/2011 10:35:17 PM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: defiantbadgirl

What a joke. The unemployment rate doesn't count the unemployed who no longer receive unemployment checks. It doesn't count the people who can only find part time work. Employment is employment - even if it's only 10 hours a week. Also, what types of jobs are on the increase? Do they pay a living wage of $60,000/yr or under $10 an hour?What I'd like to see is more surveys showing the percentage of under employed Americans.


This site better answers your questions.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

U6 : U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons



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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 6/3/2011 6:01:38 AM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		Not any more. 54,000 jobs added in the month of May. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 %, the highest since September of 2010. The Obama Administration has big trouble ahead..

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 6/3/2011 6:07:05 AM   
EternalHoH


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Status: offline 		I would say ANY administration has big trouble ahead.


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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 6/3/2011 6:17:29 AM   
tazzygirl


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Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

Not any more. 54,000 jobs added in the month of May. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 %, the highest since September of 2010. The Obama Administration has big trouble ahead..


Hmmm... you revise a 2 month old thread with that?

Highest since when?

2009 7.7 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0 2009
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.4 2010
2011 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1

Considering the rate in september of 2010 was 9.6... Im not sure you understand what you are talking about.

< Message edited by tazzygirl -- 6/3/2011 6:18:36 AM >

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 6/3/2011 6:26:33 AM   
servantforuse


Posts: 6363
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Status: offline 		I hope this economy turns around and I don't care who gets credit for it. It is not getting better though, it's getting worse. 100,000 jobs per month need to be created just to keep the numbers at 9 %. We are going in the wrong direction.

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RE: Unemployment at 2 year low - 6/3/2011 6:28:11 AM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline 		No one is arguing jobs are a priority. But you are the one pointing political fingers... and using wrong information to do so.

Keep it real.

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