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EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 7:30:23 PM   
Marini


Posts: 3629
Joined: 2/14/2010
Status: offline 		Like most people around the world, I have been listening and looking at the demonstrations in Egypt.

To attempt to understand where Egypt is going, it makes sense to study some of the long history of one of the centers of modern civilization.

Since I am not a historian, look at Egyptian history from the past 100-300 years.

This website does a great job nailing the last 100 years or so.

Wars of Modern Egypt

What is now going on in Egypt is critical to the rest of the world.
I am almost in disbelief about how critical this situation may become.

Here is a timeline of the unrest this month so far, Egypt Unrest January 2011 timeline

I think this is only the beginning, and I believe the movement will be growing and gaining support.
I am really at a loss here, it is hard for me to fathom the consequences, but Egypt is on the brink of major CHANGE, and it will affect the entire world.

I am now officially hooked on reading whatever blogs I can find from Egypt, I hope they are able to continue blogging.
This one is pretty good, Blogging from Egypt as long as possible

< Message edited by Marini -- 1/29/2011 7:42:16 PM >

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As always, To EACH their Own.
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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 7:36:29 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
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From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		King Tuts gold is- or was in the museum-  which 2 mummies were destroyed... the people formed a human shield-  but who knows now. 

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 7:41:51 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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Status: offline 		Interesting. I'm watching "Cleopatra" tonight. Just picked it at random; wasn't even consciously thinking of the parallels or the historical patterns. I'll have to ponder this a while.

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 7:52:15 PM   
Marini


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

Interesting. I'm watching "Cleopatra" tonight. Just picked it at random; wasn't even consciously thinking of the parallels or the historical patterns. I'll have to ponder this a while.


I need to watch that again soon, now I am hooked on the blogs.
The youth are saying "Bring it".
Youth involvement in Middle East unrest

This is Egypt, Panda!
I don't see the resistance backing down.
IF they step back at all, it will be to re-organize, plan, gather support and supporters inside and outside of Egypt.

< Message edited by Marini -- 1/29/2011 8:10:40 PM >

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)
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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 8:29:33 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Marini

quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

Interesting. I'm watching "Cleopatra" tonight. Just picked it at random; wasn't even consciously thinking of the parallels or the historical patterns. I'll have to ponder this a while.


I need to watch that again soon, now I am hooked on the blogs.
The youth are saying "Bring it".
Youth involvement in Middle East unrest

This is Egypt, Panda!
I don't see the resistance backing down.
IF they step back at all, it will be to re-organize, plan, gather support and supporters inside and outside of Egypt.


They're not backing down. They had no idea how strong they really were until yesterday, and now that they do understand, they're not going to stop. Mubarak's finished; it's just a matter of when and how. And then, a matter of what comes next. And after that... it will become a matter of which country is next.

I think that in some ways, the more relevant parallels to study are not so much historical Egypt, but Eastern Europe. In April of 1989, Poland held open elections, and the Communist Party was swept from power; in September, Hungary opened the border with Austria; in October, East Germany opened their border with the West, and 2 years later the Soviet Union was no more. One of the most amazing events of my lifetime; I feel as though i remember every minute of it, and every time I turn on the news and see Egypt, I feel as though I'm living it again. This is a very exciting moment in history, and we are privileged to be witnessing it.

< Message edited by ThatDamnedPanda -- 1/29/2011 8:30:26 PM >

_____________________________

Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?


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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 8:36:00 PM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
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Status: offline 		It's not just Egypt.  Tunisia was the first, and Egypt is the second.  But the Arab states have very similar patterns - wealth from oil, concentrated at the top.  No industry to speak of, just subsistence agriculture, handicrafts, and bazaar stalls.  No manufacturing.  No chance for someone to rise through the ranks of a company.  No middle class - just poor and rich.  High unemployment among the young, even some well educated ones.  For some reason, when US companies offshore, they never consider Arab states.

I see this as destabilizing the entire Middle East.  The Arab states and Iran are ripe for this, and the Arab prices and Ahmadinejad are terrified.

Short term, this is wonderful.  The rulers have been despots, leading lives of luxury instead of guiding their countries to prosperity.  And the Israel-Arab situation is put on the back burner while the Arab nations are internally directed.

Long term, who knows...?


< Message edited by DarkSteven -- 1/29/2011 9:32:13 PM >

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 8:39:46 PM   
Marini


Posts: 3629
Joined: 2/14/2010
Status: offline 		I agree this is fascinating, I literally can't believe what is going on.

I agree Mubarak is finished, he couldn't get out of Egypt fast enough, I don't see him going back.

I am not sure what lies ahead, but change is coming to Egypt.

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)
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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 9:07:08 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009
Status: offline 		Watch the Egyptian army. Unless Mubarak decides to step down peacefully, I think the army is going to be the key. When they decide that Mubarak's position is clearly untenable, they will probably act simply to maintain order. What specific action they take - and on whose behalf - will be the biggest factor in determining what direction Egypt goes next, at least for the short term.

_____________________________

Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?


(in reply to Marini)
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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 10:47:18 PM   
SexyBossyBBW


Posts: 1693
Joined: 2/25/2010
Status: offline 		Mubarack is done, no doubt; but when there is such a systematic application of corrupt practices, how does that get corrected?    It will take a lot of time, and probable loss of life, because people who are accustomed to being in power, do not give it up, easily at all.   Mubarack had to have a lot of support, to maintain his control.

I'm glad the people revolted though.   I cannot stand a people who will allow corrupt, country destroying leaders, to remain in power for decades, and cry for help, without first uprising themselves.    M

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/29/2011 11:20:27 PM   
tweakabelle


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From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda

Watch the Egyptian army. Unless Mubarak decides to step down peacefully, I think the army is going to be the key. When they decide that Mubarak's position is clearly untenable, they will probably act simply to maintain order. What specific action they take - and on whose behalf - will be the biggest factor in determining what direction Egypt goes next, at least for the short term.


Yes I agree. The army will probably play a key role. The police force seems to have disintegrated, so there is a kind of vacuum there.

Mubarak is ex-military (Air Force I've heard somewhere). The military have been the major beneficiaries of the $1.5 billion US aid package. I wish I could be more optimistic about the kind of role they will end up playing.


< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 1/29/2011 11:21:23 PM >

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/30/2011 12:34:37 AM   
ThePeripatetic


Posts: 139
Joined: 12/21/2010
Status: offline 		I'm torn between fear and hope over these protests. I think it's fantastic that the people are rising up, demanding more democracy and transparency, and overthrowing despots. If it weren't so dangerous I would love to be there right now witnessing history being made.

But what's scary is that there is a very real possibility that the power vacuum in Egypt will be filled by a group like the Muslim Brotherhood (who have been marginalized for years in Egypt). This could play out a lot like the Iranian revolution of '79 where an autocratic and corrupt regime is replaced by a religiously radical government.

All I can say is that I cannot get enough of NPR these days! I've been glued to my I-phone in rapt attention!

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/30/2011 8:02:38 PM   
Marini


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Joined: 2/14/2010
Status: offline
Thank you to all the wonderful people that have responded.

I did want to mention, that I never said that what was going on in Egypt was a good thing.

I said, I thought it was very interesting to watch.

As I have heard many people state, it remains to be seen if the situation in Egypt gets better or worse.

We have no real idea, who will end up on top, who will remain in control, and what will happen in the future.

Time will tell, change is coming, and I hope the "change" is for the better.

Namaste

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to ThePeripatetic)
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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/30/2011 8:07:22 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		The missionary couple from our church has made it from Alexandria to Cairo...the went by train (??)  The water - as in running water is out of order.   Supposedly the US is sending planes- they hope to be able to fly out tomorrow. 

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/30/2011 8:29:57 PM   
PyrotheClown


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Status: offline 		Here's an Aljazeera documentary bout modern Egypt and Mubarak made before the current turmoil.

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/30/2011 9:09:59 PM   
Marini


Posts: 3629
Joined: 2/14/2010
Status: offline 		Who will end up in control of Egypt?

Do the majority of citizens want a real democratic society?

If the Radical Muslim Brotherhood gains control of Egypt,
we can guess the agenda and types of activities that will be going on.

< Message edited by Marini -- 1/30/2011 9:17:49 PM >

_____________________________

As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

(in reply to PyrotheClown)
Profile   Post #: 15
RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 1/31/2011 5:04:36 AM   
Aneirin


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From: Tamaris
Status: offline 		The Egyptians are seeking a country that is moving forward into the future, if the Muslim Brotherhood seize power, then it is likely Egypt will spiral down into the past, that is if the MB have similar ideals to other religious fanatics. But the MB is in amongst the protesters, so that is seen as a good thing for now, especially so as they seem to be skilled in protest.

Of those Egyptians I communicate with, mostly artists, they do not want to go backwards, as going backwards limits or will even outlaw their artistic endeavors and possibilities.

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RE: EGYPT/From Pharaoh's to 2011 and beyond - 2/1/2011 8:45:22 PM   
ThePeripatetic


Posts: 139
Joined: 12/21/2010
Status: offline 		A few more thoughts on Egypt:  

My initial impression of the Muslim Brotherhood was that they were approaching things from a radical Islamic stance.  After tuning into NPR and a few other sources lately, it sounds like this may not be entirely true.  Yes they are certainly anti-American and I hardly blame them with the US propping up Mubarak for so long.  And I'd have to look onto it more myself but according to some analysts it almost sounds like the Brotherhood is more on the moderate side of things.  Let's hope this is true.  

But whatever the case may be, I think it will be important for the Brotherhood to have some (even significant) buy-in and involvement with the future Egyptian government that emerges.  If they continue to be marginalized as they have in the past under Mubarak then it's all the more likely they will swing toward more violent, anti-US fundamentalism (think Iran in '79).

One other thought:  I'm currently reading Hernando de Soto's "The Mystery of Capital".  De Soto and his team conducted a lot of their research in Egypt (specifically Cairo) and he frequently refers to Egypt as a case example.  One of the key points de Soto addresses in the book is the inability of the world's poor to actualize capital out of their current possessions.  Land and housing are examples of 'dead' capital that the poor are unable to leverage in order to further their capital accumulation.  

Egypt exemplifies this to an extreme degree.  For example, de Soto cites that it takes "at least 77 bureaucratic procedures at thirty-one public and private agencies" to register the purchase of state-owned desert land, 5-14 years of legal wrangling.  Hence the reason so many Egyptians operate businesses and 'own' housing that flies under the legal radar.  

This kind of crippling inefficiencies is a primary cause of intractable, grinding poverty.  And it's one of the primary reasons the people are taking to the streets.  I really hope that whomever and whatever emerges once the dust has settled can address these pressing concerns.  I see reform of the bloated and corrupt bureaucracy being at the heart of what Egypt needs to successfully advance as a developing nation.

_____________________________

"The Journey is the Destination" - Dan Eldon (One of my heroes. R.I.P.)

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