Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid

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Sanity -> Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 3:53:25 PM)
quote: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid [img]http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/nws/p/ap_logo_106.png[/img] MOSCOW – Russia's space agency chief said Wednesday a spacecraft may be dispatched to knock a large asteroid off course and reduce the chances of earth impact, even though U.S. scientists say such a scenario is unlikely. Anatoly Perminov told Golos Rossii radio the space agency would hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis. He said his agency might eventually invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project. When the 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated its chances of smashing into Earth in its first flyby, in 2029, at 1-in-37. Further studies have ruled out the possibility of an impact in 2029, when the asteroid is expected to come no closer than 18,300 miles (29,450 kilometers) from Earth's surface, but they indicated a small possibility of a hit on subsequent encounters. NASA had put the chances that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 as 1-in-45,000. In October, after researchers recalculated the asteroid's path, the agency changed its estimate to 1-in-250,000. <snip> <snip> "People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," Perminov said. Scientists have long theorized about asteroid deflection strategies. Some have proposed sending a probe to circle around a dangerous asteroid to gradually change its trajectory. Others suggested sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and alter its momentum, or hitting it with nuclear weapons. Perminov wouldn't disclose any details of the project, saying they still need to be worked out. But he said the mission wouldn't require any nuclear explosions. Full article at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091230/ap_on_sc/eu_russia_asteroid_encounter

Aneirin -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 4:34:59 PM)
The thought is though this asteroid is part of the natural balance of the universe, it's trajectory to come within 18k miles is that close enough for mankind to upset the balance, and there possibly setting off a chain of unknown quantity. Deflecting this one that comes near might very well lead to one that is not meant to come near, smacking into something else and setting off another chain of occurences that will affect this planet in a worse way. When we start interfering with these unknowns we may unwittingly be setting up more and greater disasters to come. Science, as far as I am concerned needs to be proving the trajectory of this lump of rock, if it is to pass us by 18k miles, lets just marvel at the sight and treat it as a warning, that despite all our technologies, sticks and in this case stones can break more than bones and we , life on earth is not really that significant at all to the greater universe. (Or something thinking, damn, they survived the flood, I will chuck a rock at them this time )

DarkSteven -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:03:12 PM)
Interesting. Classically, the USA acts like it wants to take responsibility for the world's ills, but China's been trying to do that for a few years, and now Russia.

sappatoti -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:11:07 PM)
I think it's great that some other space power wants to take the lead on a space project. As to whether this mission should be undertaken at all, I think it might be a good dress rehearsal for the time when one is actually on a collision course. How many chances like this happen where an asteroid comes close enough where we can analyze its trajectory, try a deflection, then study the effects afterwards? At the very least, the world's space scientists will have good, healthy debates over the coming years about whether this deflection should be attempted. By Russia indicating that they intend to try, the debate has just started in earnest. Good for them.

Aneirin -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:12:28 PM)
Could that be yet another indication that the US is falling from it's position of the great, just like the wealthy leaving the US as described in another thread. Perhaps the US having gone through it's great phase is now settling down to a more realistic existence, one where maybe it will trample less and more lightly on other parts of the world.

LadyEllen -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:18:00 PM)
Perhaps the international cooperation could be coordinated at a meeting in Copenhagen, where it turns out no one is willing to agree to anything, whilst commentators who lack astro-physics degrees argue ad infinitum as to whether there is any such thing as asteroids. E

sappatoti -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:22:24 PM)
I wouldn't ascribe that thought to the entire country but I would say it's a definite possibility for NASA. It's an agency that no longer runs on the adrenaline of exuberant exploration like it did during the Mercury, Gemini, and even Apollo years. It's now an agency run by ultra conservative bureaucrats taking their marching orders from the government as opposed to scientists forging ahead on plans just to see "what happens." Old age has crept into NASA. America's space pioneering spirit is still strong within the private sector. If the government would open up the skies, literally, to the privateers, you'd see how much progress the private space scientists of America would make. Until then, other nations are going to take advantage of NASA's encumbrances and make the bold moves of this day.

Sanity -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:31:36 PM)
I think I'll go with the crowd that says if it ain't broke don't fix it. It would be a pity if they just nudged it enough to knock it into a direct collision course with the Earth or the Moon, or if they split it off into several chunks that strike us with several major hits. I'm too young to be a dinosaur...

Rule -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:34:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Sanity I think I'll go with the crowd that says if it ain't broke don't fix it. Quite.

Vaughner -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 5:48:36 PM)
I always like discussions about asteroid impacts, big scary things that can be defeated with simple numbers. So long as you know the numbers, you don't have to rely on a PhD who may have questionable motives (ie money) to tell you what the information means. Apophis Mass: 191,712.13 Kilograms Velocity: 28 km/s (estimated velocity in the event of an impact) Kinetic Energy: 75,151,154,960,000 Joules (Kinetic Energy = Mass * Velocity squared) Joules in 1 Megaton of TNT 4,184,000,000,000,000 (i.e. 4.184 Petajoule) Putting those together 4,184,000,000,000,000 1 Megaton Nuke (far from the largest) vs. 75,151,154,960,000 (ke of asteroid) In the case of an asteroid this small, a couple ICBM's would be more than enough to nullify its threat without the expense of developing some specialized spacecraft to try to do something to alter its course. (Granted you would need several given that a single target will only be struck with so much of the released energy) It would take an asteroid much larger than this to be a serious threat that could not be handled by the various nuclear air forces of the world. Now I am not saying such asteroids do not exist, we know for a fact they do. However if such a large asteroid were detected in time, all you would really need do is send up a few devices to hold position near it and use the mutual attraction of gravity to alter its course over time. Don't want to get too drawn out so I won't go any more in depth about possibilities. In the end, the above article simply strikes me as a scare letter to loosen some wallets. "People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow us to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people," That was the part that got me curious enough to generate some numbers.

Aneirin -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 6:11:01 PM)
Yeah, chuck nukes at it, they have to have some use, but the resulting detonation even if only enough to make a difference in trajectory or velocity, won't the rock chunks blown off it in the detonation become a more threatening danger to this planet. Instead of a lump of rock cruising by at 18k miles out, we might get showered with chunks of hot rock, big enough to cause a problem. The asteroid might be a chunk of rock, but it's internal structure is not known, that saying what could break from the asteroid on detonation of anything, be it nukes or spacecraft could be any size, even a large proportion of the asteroid in buckshot or slug form piling down on our heads. Leave the thing alone, the potential for disaster is immense and as for this being a practice run for the future, lets wait until then, when technology has advanced a bit beyong playing pool with celestial bodies.

Sanity -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 6:15:30 PM)
From the NASA website: quote: (2) Mitigation Mitigation was not specifically studied, but the team found small variations in the energy absorption and reflection properties of Apophis' surface are sufficient to cause enough trajectory change to obscure the difference between an impact and a miss in 2036. Changing the amount of energy Apophis absorbs by half a percent as late as 2018 - for example by covering a 40 x 40 meter (130 x 130 foot) patch with lightweight reflective materials (an 8 kg payload) - can change its position in 2036 by a minimum of one Earth radius. [image]http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/apophis7_s.jpg[/image] Apophis Trajectory Change A change somewhat greater than this minimum would be required to allow for prediction uncertainties. For Apophis, scaling up to distribute 250 kg (550 pounds) of a reflective or absorptive material (similar to the carbon fiber mesh being considered for solar sails) across the surface could use the existing radiation forces to produce a 6-sigma trajectory change, moving at least "99.9999998" percent of the statistically possible trajectories away from the Earth in just 18 years. While no deflection is expected to be necessary, the team's research demonstrates that any deflection method must produce a change known in advance to be greater than all the error sources in the prediction, including some greater than those considered with the standard model. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/

Loki45 -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 6:40:10 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Aneirin The thought is though this asteroid is part of the natural balance of the universe, it's trajectory to come within 18k miles is that close enough for mankind to upset the balance, and there possibly setting off a chain of unknown quantity. Deflecting this one that comes near might very well lead to one that is not meant to come near, smacking into something else and setting off another chain of occurences that will affect this planet in a worse way. When we start interfering with these unknowns we may unwittingly be setting up more and greater disasters to come. Science, as far as I am concerned needs to be proving the trajectory of this lump of rock, if it is to pass us by 18k miles, lets just marvel at the sight and treat it as a warning, that despite all our technologies, sticks and in this case stones can break more than bones and we , life on earth is not really that significant at all to the greater universe. (Or something thinking, damn, they survived the flood, I will chuck a rock at them this time ) Wouldn't it be cool if the asteroid we deflected drew close to some other civilization out there and they, after destroying the asteroid seek out what sent it on its path and get pissed at us? We're all so good at pissing off other countries, it would be nice to piss off another planet for a change. It's straight out of Hollywood, but it would still be cool to see.

Vaughner -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 6:42:33 PM)
I wasn't suggesting we should do it now, I am saying if it were a problem in the future. And yes reducing it to pieces would be better than letting it come down intact regardless of its composition. The smaller the pieces it is reduced to, the more of the total mass will burn up in the atmosphere, skip off it it, etc, lessening how much of it reaches the planet. Also given the dimensions of the planet you increase the amount of mass that will be scattered into the oceans instead of on land. (Assuming it wasn't going to be an ocean impact from the start.) So yeah for now leave it the hell alone, but if it looks for sure like it is coming in... Nuke it.

Sanity -> RE: Russia may send spacecraft to knock away asteroid (12/30/2009 7:04:10 PM)
The NASA article mentioned covering it with a carbon mesh screen to absorb existing radiation forces, and deflecting it that way. Its surface is glassy smooth, and because of that they believe that placing such a mesh over it would change its trajectory very nicely.

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