The 90% Lie

The 90% Lie (Full Version)

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DomImus -> The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 1:54:30 PM)
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/ I knew the numbers were being inflated.

Crush -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 1:57:01 PM)
Disraeli had it right: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Here's one: 100% of the guns in my possession have never been to Mexico....

rulemylife -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 2:12:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DomImus http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/ I knew the numbers were being inflated. You knew that huh? Well if Fox says it then it must be true. From your link: In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S. But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S. This is typical of their tabloid journalism. So they are essentially implying while 90% of the 6,000 guns submitted for tracing came from the U.S., the remainder of the guns were not traced so they are arguing that those guns did not come from here without any proof either way.

SilverMark -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 2:17:49 PM)
Well, I have no axe to grind on the gun argument but, but, I would believe that most of the guns used by the cartels in Mexico are probably brought through the U.S. We make them, we sell them and we also import them and then sell them. When was the last time you heard of a Mexican gun manufacturer? I haven't a clue personally but, just a hunch.... No one really wants a Lopez 47 or a Smith & Rodriguez do they?

wulfgarw -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 2:29:35 PM)
Rule number 2 of politics. Don't let facts get in the way of good propaganda...

rulemylife -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 2:58:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark No one really wants a Lopez 47 or a Smith & Rodriguez do they? [sm=biggrin.gif]

Sanity -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 3:21:06 PM)
From the article: quote: But a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S.

CruelNUnsual -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 4:31:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: DomImus http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2009/04/02/myth-percent-guns-mexico-fraction-number-claimed/ I knew the numbers were being inflated. You knew that huh? Well if Fox says it then it must be true. From your link: In 2007-2008, according to ATF Special Agent William Newell, Mexico submitted 11,000 guns to the ATF for tracing. Close to 6,000 were successfully traced -- and of those, 90 percent -- 5,114 to be exact, according to testimony in Congress by William Hoover -- were found to have come from the U.S. But in those same two years, according to the Mexican government, 29,000 guns were recovered at crime scenes.In other words, 68 percent of the guns that were recovered were never submitted for tracing. And when you weed out the roughly 6,000 guns that could not be traced from the remaining 32 percent, it means 83 percent of the guns found at crime scenes in Mexico could not be traced to the U.S. This is typical of their tabloid journalism. So they are essentially implying while 90% of the 6,000 guns submitted for tracing came from the U.S., the remainder of the guns were not traced so they are arguing that those guns did not come from here without any proof either way. And this is the way an article that states a fact gets twisted into being a "lie" by propogandists misrepresenting what it says. It is very careful to say that only 17% have been traced to the US. Not once does it say or imply that those that have not been traced or are untraceable did not or could not come from the US. It then states why others arent traced. "Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News." It shouldnt be a great surprise that 90% of the guns that are traced come from the US when those whose origin is being sought are those likely to have been in the US market. The article is factual, and 100% right in calling out those who misuse the 90% statistic.

rulemylife -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 5:06:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Sanity From the article: quote: But a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S. Then why was Fox able to provide statistics supposedly disputing the 90% claim while I saw nothing saying what percentage of these guns had foreign markings?

rulemylife -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/3/2009 5:22:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: CruelNUnsual And this is the way an article that states a fact gets twisted into being a "lie" by propogandists misrepresenting what it says. It is very careful to say that only 17% have been traced to the US. Not once does it say or imply that those that have not been traced or are untraceable did not or could not come from the US. It then states why others arent traced. "Not every weapon seized in Mexico has a serial number on it that would make it traceable, and the U.S. effort to trace weapons really only extends to weapons that have been in the U.S. market," Matt Allen, special agent of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told FOX News." It shouldnt be a great surprise that 90% of the guns that are traced come from the US when those whose origin is being sought are those likely to have been in the US market. The article is factual, and 100% right in calling out those who misuse the 90% statistic. Come on, this whole article was designed to twist facts into a ratings boost for their core base. The 90% claim is basic statistical analysis. When you see campaign polls do they interview every registered voter? No, they use a small sampling of maybe 1,000 to 1,500 of all the country's voters, which usually is fairly accurate within a few percentage points. How accurate would you gauge it be when a 21% sampling of the guns (6,000 of 29,000) was used and 90% were found to be US made?

OneSickMan -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/4/2009 5:11:00 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Sanity From the article: quote: But a large percentage of the guns recovered in Mexico do not get sent back to the U.S. for tracing, because it is obvious from their markings that they do not come from the U.S. Still and all doesn't mean they weren't brought through the U.S. clearly a number of guns are imported to and sold within the U.S.

Arpig -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/4/2009 5:57:56 AM)
Its my understanding that the US makes a huge number of guns, and surly if they can smuggle people from Mexico to the US, they can smuggle guns back the other way just as easily.

StrangerThan -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/4/2009 6:15:15 AM)
Russia has been a big arms supplier worldwide for decades. I'd guess that a good percentage of the weapons found still came from the US but had markings filed off them. I'd also guess that a significantly large percentage comes from Russia or China. What we don't have is much information. I can't imagine cartels wanting the average type of weapon available to the general population. Military weapons are manufactured to different specs. A rifle you buy for hunting for example, will be hot after relatively few rounds are fired. Keep firing and you risk warping the barrel, reducing the accuracy and even potentially ruining the weapon itself. A typical semi-automatic 30.06, which is a hell of hunting rifle, will hold 5 rounds and that's with one in the chamber. Cycle through that a few times in a short period and the gun itself is going to be scorching hot. In other words, the gun is great for bringing down one or a few, but isn't so great for prolonged gun battles or where you need to spray a lot of rounds in a short period. No, you want assault weapons because they're made for that type of engagement. Military rounds are some of the cheapest available worldwide. You can buy them in bulk and the 7.62mm Nato round - which is basically a pared down version of the 30.06 into a .308 has power, range and there are probably billions of them sitting around waiting to kill. The 5.56mm round is used in the M16, M4 type weapons. There's tons of it sitting around too and it's preferable in some ways as there's little kick. You can shoot one of these guns all day long and they're much easier to handle in a fully automatic weapon. Given the money drug cartles have available I wouldn't expect them to be buying a lot of guns from US manufacturers and then having them modified to fire fully automatic. I'd expect them to be dealing with gun runners or governments who could deliver what they wanted. I also wouldn't expect them to be using a lot of the handguns available in the US, but be limited to (for the most part) a couple of calibers, maybe 9mm and .45. I'm sure you can find all calibers and all types of weapons. The ones above just make more sense to me because of their availibility and stocks around the world. And when it comes to assualt rifles, the Russian Ak-47 is the most widely used assault rifle in the world. Shrug. I know if I was outfitting my gang to fight other gangs, police and military, it wouldn't be from Sam's Guns.

CruelNUnsual -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/4/2009 8:11:24 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife Come on, this whole article was designed to twist facts into a ratings boost for their core base. The 90% claim is basic statistical analysis. When you see campaign polls do they interview every registered voter? No, they use a small sampling of maybe 1,000 to 1,500 of all the country's voters, which usually is fairly accurate within a few percentage points. How accurate would you gauge it be when a 21% sampling of the guns (6,000 of 29,000) was used and 90% were found to be US made? The point that you appear to be intentionally avoiding is that it wasnt a random sample. It was a search FOR guns that COULD be traced to the US, and guns that were obviously not US origin were not included in the 90%. It isnt even close to "basic statistical analysis".

Padriag -> RE: The 90% Lie (4/4/2009 10:32:37 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: StrangerThan And when it comes to assualt rifles, the Russian Ak-47 is the most widely used assault rifle in the world. Enough AK-47s have been manufactured in Russia and China and sold... to arm 1 in 12 people world wide. AK-47s are preferred by most over the M-16 as being a more practical weapon, its more reliable, easier to maintain, easier to repair and ammunition is far more readiy available. You can buy either almost anywhere, whether that's some god forsaken african country that didn't exist 2 months ago, or the streets of a major American city. Its everywhere you don't want to be. I haven't seen these news reports, and I really don't care who is saying what. What I do know is, if you're a drug cartel, a mexican gang, an Taliban fighter, or a terrorist, etc.... odds are your weapon of choice is going to be the AK-47. So how come these news reports aren't more worried about the proliferation of the most popular assault rifle in the world? Or whether former Soviet generals are selling major military hardware on the black market? Forget worrying if that punk has an AK-47 or a M-16 or a Steyr Aug... I'd be more worried about the RPG launcher his buddy is toting, or that BTR they drove up in.

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