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pahunkboy -> Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 10:19:35 AM)

Japan should write off its Treasury holdings, credit analyst says  Submitted by cpowell on 08:09AM ET Wednesday, December 24, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt as Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says By Stanley White and Shigeki Nozawa
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, December 24, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFgHlh.Dn4Lc TOKYO -- Japan should write off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co. The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes "drastic measures" to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------that is a profound statement. !  Japan owns a whole lot of these.  I had an order in to on an exchange to trade some 40% for a high content silver.  No. I canceled.   A crash will mean that silver simply can not be priced.
My brother asks me what I think then he does not want the answer.  I got out of my mind the idea of a trip there. It is just as well, the car wont start.  So I wont get too far. I hate broken stuff!  I layed down to get the run down" out of my body.
Im all grubby.  To go out, I have to hook up the battery in the truck.  It is very wet outside.  Yikes.

So everything you touch, 40 cents on the dollar less, or put another way, 40% MORE.   
I am so very upset that our world is going to collapse in a few years. I want to get in my brother face until he shoots me.
   For every bit as tight as I am he is just as tight.  He put some money in T-bills. I can see it now.  Sorry bub.  That $100 widget is now $140.  We only have a fushia pink one left, it needs shipped from San Jose, we can have it in only 6 weeks, assuming the roads go thru.  That will be 30 peices of silver.  Cash?  OMG, your Joking?    SECURITY REMOVE THIS TERRORIST CODE BLUE CODE BLUE!

[Mod Note:  image removed]





LaTigresse -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 11:03:35 AM)

You know, it makes zero sense to me to buy commodoties when they are at the highest they've been in years.

The reality is that, IF things got as bad as you seem to fear it will, what good will owning gold or silver do you? I mean really. You need gas? Groceries? Do you think you will be able to take a bar of gold to the gas station and have them shave off a sliver or two, weigh it and say thanks for your business and bye bye?? NO!! Why......primarily because the station owner probably will not have the gas to give you. The grocery store shelves will be less stocked and they probably will not have a clerk behind bars ready to take your gold and silver in trade.

Get realistic now.

While I am absolutely certain the people that were buying gold and silver a few years ago are estatic that people like you are running around like chickens with their heads cut off buying their high priced goods, you are not doing yourselves any favours.

You wanna buy something of value, start looking through property foreclosure listings and get your hands on some good rental property for a song. Buy a farm. Something that will give a real $$ return or help support you in some way.

You cannot eat a gold bar or silver coins my friend. Nor can you heat your house with it.




pahunkboy -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 11:19:49 AM)

LAT, Im open to ideas.

Thats how I learn.

Suppose I did get a place cheap. I hate the busy street here.  But I dont plan to walk from this place. That just isnt a good choice.

A few guys have been experimenting with the trade of it...one did trade gas for a silver eagle.

Arts will get good.   Do keep in mind the attention span.   We have NO attention span.  None.

I am open to ideas.   Washington doing these extraordinary measures, but what are they really doing?  A wheat crop doesn't pop up with each bail out.

2013. if we make it that far, we will be fine.   Cheney said other countries will continue to loan us money, because our finger is on the nuke button.  What a profoundly disgusting thing to say...and yet, at the same time, there is an UGLY truth to it.




celticlord2112 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 11:25:33 AM)

quote:

Japan should write off its Treasury holdings

It's unlikely Japan will take this step.  It would eliminate the export side of their economy--and theirs is export driven just like China and Germany.

The devil's bargain Japan made in buying up US debt was to keep the dollar strong and the US market receptive to Japanese goods.  If they want to minimize their own economic crisis they need the US market to recover.....which takes more purchases of US debt, not torching the purchases already made.




pahunkboy -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 11:38:05 AM)

CL,

the whole mess COULD go away.  a stroke of the pen to void to quadrillion trillion derivatives.   the bright part is that other countries will get hit sooner then us.  not that it is good news.  

as for some solutions, my sister owns a dehydrator she used only once.  I hate canned foods... but dehydrated is possible.   they can last 30 years.  the the food will outlast me.   My sister is thinking of having her 2nd baby. she is 34.  I support her decision.  Yes, I am scared as is her hubby.  She said it is never a good time. I think having kids is a thing for age 25-35.  old enough to have some wealth, young enough to have some health.

as to my brother, he is the type that he gets a speeding ticket, he squeals his tires, then gets another one.   I know how the cops are here. I snapped at me to not be cocky with the cop.  They CAN impound your car here just to be cute.

Of my grandmothers, the one who outlived, the other was the humble one.   Something to think about.  She is fine, frankly she has better teeth then I....  go figure. She never sees a DR.   Man oh man. I wished I tuned in more to the old timers.  We loose something when we dont.






Lorr47 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 2:20:11 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

You know, it makes zero sense to me to buy commodoties when they are at the highest they've been in years.

The reality is that, IF things got as bad as you seem to fear it will, what good will owning gold or silver do you? I mean really. You need gas? Groceries? Do you think you will be able to take a bar of gold to the gas station and have them shave off a sliver or two, weigh it and say thanks for your business and bye bye?? NO!! Why......primarily because the station owner probably will not have the gas to give you. The grocery store shelves will be less stocked and they probably will not have a clerk behind bars ready to take your gold and silver in trade.

Get realistic now.

While I am absolutely certain the people that were buying gold and silver a few years ago are estatic that people like you are running around like chickens with their heads cut off buying their high priced goods, you are not doing yourselves any favours.

You wanna buy something of value, start looking through property foreclosure listings and get your hands on some good rental property for a song. Buy a farm. Something that will give a real $$ return or help support you in some way.

You cannot eat a gold bar or silver coins my friend. Nor can you heat your house with it.



Everyone I have met in the commodities markets seems to believe in the silver call option buying program.  You buy call options to purchase silver months out and purchase these call options every month knowing you are going to continually take small losses but wanting to be in position to catch silver when it spikes (and it always does).  Once silver spikes we have a self fulfilling prophecy since everyone jumps on and then silver really takes off.  Is it the fundamental worth of silver?  No.  It is a lot of investors first positioning themselves to make a lot of money and then using leverage to make the market soar higher.  If you have guts, you make even more money using puts on the way down.  Is there any fundamental worth in this.  I do not think so, just people making a hell of a lot of money artificially  Kind of sounds like Wall Street..  Ask Bunker how fast silver can fall.




celticlord2112 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 2:23:51 PM)

quote:

the whole mess COULD go away.

Sure it "could."

For that matter the US government "could" repudiate every single dollar of Treasury debt outstanding, telling the investors of the world to just fuck off.

Unless and/or until there is no other option, however, I fail to see how such a move would be in the best interests of either the government or the economy.

A great many things are "possible."  Prudent planning suggests one's attention primarily focus on those things that are "probable."




TheUtopian -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 9:30:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

Japan should write off its Treasury holdings, credit analyst says  Submitted by cpowell on 08:09AM ET Wednesday, December 24, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt as Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says By Stanley White and Shigeki Nozawa
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, December 24, 2008 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFgHlh.Dn4Lc TOKYO -- Japan should write off its holdings of Treasuries because the U.S. government will struggle to finance increasing debt levels needed to dig the economy out of recession, said Akio Mikuni, president of credit ratings agency Mikuni & Co. The dollar may lose as much as 40 percent of its value to 50 yen or 60 yen from the current spot rate of 90.40 today in Tokyo unless Japan takes "drastic measures" to help bail out the U.S. economy, Mikuni said. Treasury yields, which are near record lows, may fall further without debt relief, making it difficult for the U.S. to borrow elsewhere, Mikuni said.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------that is a profound statement. !  Japan owns a whole lot of these.  I had an order in to on an exchange to trade some 40% for a high content silver.  No. I canceled.   A crash will mean that silver simply can not be priced.
My brother asks me what I think then he does not want the answer.  I got out of my mind the idea of a trip there. It is just as well, the car wont start.  So I wont get too far. I hate broken stuff!  I layed down to get the run down" out of my body.
Im all grubby.  To go out, I have to hook up the battery in the truck.  It is very wet outside.  Yikes.

So everything you touch, 40 cents on the dollar less, or put another way, 40% MORE.   
I am so very upset that our world is going to collapse in a few years. I want to get in my brother face until he shoots me.
   For every bit as tight as I am he is just as tight.  He put some money in T-bills. I can see it now.  Sorry bub.  That $100 widget is now $140.  We only have a fushia pink one left, it needs shipped from San Jose, we can have it in only 6 weeks, assuming the roads go thru.  That will be 30 peices of silver.  Cash?  OMG, your Joking?    SECURITY REMOVE THIS TERRORIST CODE BLUE CODE BLUE!

[Mod Note:  image removed]





Pahunk -

I'm not sure why keep concocting all these threads seeking investment advice? I know you know in your heart what you should do. Don't keep secomd guessing yourself from the likes of non-investor opinions....

Quick story - My father practiced securities law with a specialty in M/A 's and LBO's for over twenty years. As he admitted to me the other day, less than seven percent of his net worth was gained through London / New York. { That speaks volumes to me }

The bulk of the ninety three percent was gained through multi-family housing units{apartments} and ''downtown type'' commercial real-estate {office space for professionals}

The remainder of that accumulated net worth was gained through various forms of high quality, highly-provenanced Art, antiquities, numismatic coins, and collectibles....

You've highlighted Bob Chapman's newsletter on this part of the boards at least three times....Do think there's any chance in hell that a poster here from collarme is even one tenth as sharp as Chapman when comes precious metals and market manipulation? I'll answer that for ya - Nada!

If it makes you feel any better..... I sold a rental home back in mid 2007 and carried the note with 70k down - I then took that 70k, and over a four month period invested every penny of it in numismatic silver coins and about fifteen percent bullion/junk{Didn't purchase any gold}. I paid between seven and fourteen-dollars an ounce.....and to this day, I still have three ads in three different newspapers advertising that I buy both junk silver and old coins{as well as a few other antiquities}

The ceiling with regard to silver for investors - is absolutely fucking huge.... And like I said in three older threads - Silver is going to pop twenty-five bones and gold is gonna pop fifteen-hundred, in the not to distant future. Then you and I will gloat like hell and laugh at all the naysayers here - Bet


The Ranger's investment strategy for tough economic times :

1}  Multi-family housing units - Owner managed. Start with 4 to 8 plex units and work your way up to bigger units. If need be - Pool your money with trusted friends and family and form an LLC.

2} Gold and Silver numismatic rare coins.


3} High quality, highly-provenanced art, antiquities and collectibles - This could be anything from a rare violin from 1700's to a highly stylized, non-utilitarian ceramic vessel from the Moche' period in Peru.







- R




bluepanda -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 9:44:11 PM)

quote:

Quick story - My father practiced securities law with a specialty in M/A 's and LBO's for over twenty years. As he admitted to me the other day, less than seven percent of his net worth was gained through London / New York. { That speaks volumes to me }

The bulk of the ninety three percent was gained through multi-family housing units{apartments} and ''downtown type'' commercial real-estate {office space for professionals}


Interesting you should mention that. Almost all of my money is in the stock market right now, and I'm reasonably comfortable with how it's going at the moment, all things considered. Caught a couple of breaks, sold into some rallies, made some money with quick trades last month while the volatility was high. My energy stocks took a beating the last week or two, but I'm up overall, and not complaining.

But more and more, i am losing confidence in the stability and longterm growth potential of the stock market. More and more these last couple of weeks, I've been thinking of riding this bullish trend for another month or two, then cashing out most of my stocks and using the money to buy rental properties. I'm really starting to think this is the way to go. Your father's story was a valuable one for me right now. Thank you for sharing it.




variation30 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 10:07:08 PM)

on t-bills.

if you automated orange accounts to grab tbills (and if you had a large sum to begin with) you could make a bit of money. but now you will get no returns.

what you want is this: kitco.com




variation30 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 10:11:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

You know, it makes zero sense to me to buy commodoties when they are at the highest they've been in years.


um....becuase they'll go higher.

quote:

The reality is that, IF things got as bad as you seem to fear it will, what good will owning gold or silver do you? I mean really. You need gas? Groceries? Do you think you will be able to take a bar of gold to the gas station and have them shave off a sliver or two, weigh it and say thanks for your business and bye bye?? NO!!


...you really have no idea what you are talking about do you?

quote:

While I am absolutely certain the people that were buying gold and silver a few years ago are estatic that people like you are running around like chickens with their heads cut off buying their high priced goods, you are not doing yourselves any favours.


I am ecstatic...I'm maintaining my buying power (assuming the government doens't confiscate private citizens gold like they did under FDR).

quote:

You wanna buy something of value, start looking through property foreclosure listings and get your hands on some good rental property for a song. Buy a farm. Something that will give a real $$ return or help support you in some way.


my family has that. I do not need that to maintain what little wealth I have. I can put mine in gold and be just fine.

quote:

You cannot eat a gold bar or silver coins my friend. Nor can you heat your house with it.


no, but I can trade a gold bar for 1200+ dollars and get more food or gas than people who kept their money in a fiat currency.

gold has only been vaulable for...oh...human history. I'll be fine (assuming it isn't stolen from me).




variation30 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 10:13:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

2013. if we make it that far, we will be fine.   Cheney said other countries will continue to loan us money, because our finger is on the nuke button.  What a profoundly disgusting thing to say...and yet, at the same time, there is an UGLY truth to it.



due to FDR's incompetence, the great depression didn't clear up until around 48...

that's almost two decades...

let's not pretend this is something that has a time limit on it...especially with the people we have running this little operation.




blacksword404 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 10:49:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

You know, it makes zero sense to me to buy commodoties when they are at the highest they've been in years.

The reality is that, IF things got as bad as you seem to fear it will, what good will owning gold or silver do you? I mean really. You need gas? Groceries? Do you think you will be able to take a bar of gold to the gas station and have them shave off a sliver or two, weigh it and say thanks for your business and bye bye?? NO!! Why......primarily because the station owner probably will not have the gas to give you. The grocery store shelves will be less stocked and they probably will not have a clerk behind bars ready to take your gold and silver in trade.

Get realistic now.

While I am absolutely certain the people that were buying gold and silver a few years ago are estatic that people like you are running around like chickens with their heads cut off buying their high priced goods, you are not doing yourselves any favours.

You wanna buy something of value, start looking through property foreclosure listings and get your hands on some good rental property for a song. Buy a farm. Something that will give a real $$ return or help support you in some way.

You cannot eat a gold bar or silver coins my friend. Nor can you heat your house with it.



I have seen pictures of old $3 gold coins. Gold and silver have always had value and likely always will. It may fluctuate but it's still there. A dollar can be worth $0.The dollar did not exist before a certain date and will likely not exist after some future date.




popeye1250 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/24/2008 11:25:01 PM)

PaHunk, no advice from me on this, it's above my pay grade.




corysub -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/25/2008 9:19:28 AM)

This is silly!  Japan scrap it's U.S. Treasuries!!  Investors in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds are making a killing in the market.  People are willing to buy 5 and 10  year treasury bonds and are happy to get something over a 2.7% and 4.1% return on their money.  Japan has been in a ten year recession and
if the U.S. economy, an important end-market, does not recover, I've got to think that Japan, and China too, will see their economies hurt.  The demand
for dollar denominated treasuries is huge..four times the amount of weekly auctions!  Doesn't mean gold is not warranted in a portfolio, and I own gold
for over five years now and have seen the price rise from $225 to $840/oz...a great way to hedge the dollar.  However, unless your life depends on
foreign imports, I would not worry about the $/yen or $/Euro....weakness in the dollar would make american cars, planes, machinery and other durbables, as well as food, attractive exports.  In the end...everything reverts to the mean....and excesses in either direction are corrected...and we are living through one of those collapsed bubbles at this time.  The biggest difference between people with vision and the masses is that visionaries don't extrapolate out current trends into the future.  Remember old Malthus....he severely underestimated the human intelligence and today people are caught up in the dismal economics of cable TV pundits who sell disaster in between commercials.  I remember when the Japanese were buying all the "trophy" real estate in the country because of their strong yen...well...unless you were asleep you know how disastrous that turned out for them and their banking system.




LaTigresse -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/25/2008 10:25:29 AM)

Of course I don't know what I am talking about. I don't remember my ex-husband running down this same path, screaming "end of the world" insanity in the late 70's and early 80's. Buying gold because the money system and all the rest of the world, was going to collapse. I remember one guy, a friend of his, that was such a fanatic he had bars of gold buried all over his property. Funny thing is that he died, the IRS took the land and ousted his widow who was left with NOTHING. He was such a freak about it that he was scared to actually TELL anyone where the gold was. Now there is a golf course and housing developement where that property was.

My ex-husband stressed himself out about all the "sky is falling" crap so much that he ended up years later, drinking and drugging himself to almost to death, living in a cardboard box in an orange orchard in SoCal. All those gold bars and silver coins disappeared long before. Yeah, he was a really intelligent guy once too.

Sorry grasshopper, I don't care how smart you THINK you are.........And the odds are your IQ is higher than mine....... BUT once in awhile calm mature experience, does count for something.

So, go ahead, spout off all your data and whatever else you can come up with. I've seen, heard, and read it alllllll before. I will be here, living like I have for years. I won't lose my home, and because of my home I won't go hungry. I sure won't be bitching that I should have sold xxxx, I paid too much for, because the price dropped out again.

As for gold and silver, I've got a fair bunch of it, more than the average Jane. It was all purchased over a year ago when prices were low. I sure as hell am not buying any now. I would rather keep paying off my car, my farm, etc.

Of course, if anyone else wants to spend their hard earned $$ and add to my bling collection....I won't stop them![:D]




variation30 -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/25/2008 12:48:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

Of course I don't know what I am talking about. I don't remember my ex-husband running down this same path, screaming "end of the world" insanity in the late 70's and early 80's. Buying gold because the money system and all the rest of the world, was going to collapse. I remember one guy, a friend of his, that was such a fanatic he had bars of gold buried all over his property. Funny thing is that he died, the IRS took the land and ousted his widow who was left with NOTHING. He was such a freak about it that he was scared to actually TELL anyone where the gold was. Now there is a golf course and housing developement where that property was.


this does not sound like a good critique of buying gold. in 71 the smithsonian agreement cut the dollar from gold. now all the neo-classical economists and even 'free market' milton freidman said this was going to reduce the price of gold from 35$'s to less than 10$'s. well, they were wrong. by 80 the price was at 700$ an ounce...now if you can remember how much 700 dollars was in 80 (and how much 35 was in 71)...I think you'll agree that your fanatic friend was on to something. unfortunately, he did did not tell his spouse where that wealth was and he did something to upset to IRS. those were his mistakes, not investing in a valuable commodity.

quote:

My ex-husband stressed himself out about all the "sky is falling" crap so much that he ended up years later, drinking and drugging himself to almost to death, living in a cardboard box in an orange orchard in SoCal. All those gold bars and silver coins disappeared long before. Yeah, he was a really intelligent guy once too.


I'm not seeing a causal relationship here.

quote:

Sorry grasshopper, I don't care how smart you THINK you are.........And the odds are your IQ is higher than mine....... BUT once in awhile calm mature experience, does count for something.

So, go ahead, spout off all your data and whatever else you can come up with. I've seen, heard, and read it alllllll before. I will be here, living like I have for years. I won't lose my home, and because of my home I won't go hungry. I sure won't be bitching that I should have sold xxxx, I paid too much for, because the price dropped out again.


odds are you won't lose your home or go hungry...though there are people who have and will. people who had their money in merrill lynch and lost 1/3rd of th eir wealth may not be in the same situation you are. however, keeping all your money in the dollar is chipping away at your property thanks to inflation. so even if you don't have these catastrophic things happen, you will be losing money. though people who invest in commodities will be maintaining their buying power through this wonderful dance with hyperinflation.




UtopianRanger -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/25/2008 4:16:05 PM)

quote:

Interesting you should mention that. Almost all of my money is in the stock market right now, and I'm reasonably comfortable with how it's going at the moment, all things considered. Caught a couple of breaks, sold into some rallies, made some money with quick trades last month while the volatility was high. My energy stocks took a beating the last week or two, but I'm up overall, and not complaining.

But more and more, i am losing confidence in the stability and longterm growth potential of the stock market. More and more these last couple of weeks, I've been thinking of riding this bullish trend for another month or two, then cashing out most of my stocks and using the money to buy rental properties. I'm really starting to think this is the way to go. Your father's story was a valuable one for me right now. Thank you for sharing it.


Hey brother....you sound like a hellva nice guy and I really don't want to dampen your spirits with regard to the market. All I can say is that there's a lot of Paulsons Rubins and Made-off's out there, and you can trust me on this : The market is still in line for another huge correction by the time we hit third quarter 2009.

A lota folks are concerned and looking for ways to preserve their little nest egg....and possibly make a few dollars. The problem is... most are pre-programmed to think only in terms ''flipping houses'' or the '' market '' - And I'm here ya that there's a whole nother world out there that's fun and offers better returns than the ''market''. It's time to think outside the box and stop entrusting your hard-earned money to these super, super greedy ceo's and investment managers.

Here's an example : I purchased this in-laid Incan shell figurine for 1800.00 dollars from a collector who brought it out of Peru back 1999-2000 - Right now there's an investment banker outa Dallas who's offered me over 20k for it. I turned it down - but could prolly get 25k out of him if I really cared enough. This little piece fits in the palm of my hand and I don't have to pay a van full of Mexicans in order to preserve/maintain it. The market doesn't offer returns like that.

Best of luck to you.....

- R

[Mod Note:  image removed]





Lordandmaster -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/26/2008 1:44:38 AM)

I wouldn't be so sure.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LaTigresse

And the odds are your IQ is higher than mine.




thishereboi -> RE: Japan, dollar could go down 40%, advice? (12/26/2008 4:42:12 AM)

Yea, I thought the same thing when I read that.




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