Time to get in the market Maybe? (Full Version)

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NeedToUseYou -> Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:26:18 AM)

Well, premarket trading today is point way way lower, a the S&P has hit a trigger because it fell to much the Dow is in premarket down 548 points as of this writing. Oh, man if it drops like 700.00(edit, during normal hours) or more I'm getting in with what I have available. Waiting for previous trades yesterday to settle, so only have 20% of account value available for buys. Fuck...

Here's a link to the premarket activity. Pretty scary.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/



Hippiekinkster -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:38:26 AM)

Premature, IMO.



pahunkboy -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 6:09:33 AM)

im hesitant.    i guess i want things i can touch,



proudsub -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 1:28:52 PM)

Personally i would wait until things settle down some, even if it means you miss the very bottom. JMHO.



Real_Trouble -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 2:10:22 PM)

The question would be what kind of timeframe you have on your investments, and why you are getting in?

If you think you know something everyone else does not about the general direction of the markets, I doubt you'd be posting it on these boards; as to the rest, all that can really be guaranteed currently is lots of volatility.  I've been long that for a while, but beyond that, there's not much that I would feel comfortable trading in terms of directional picks.

Right now a lot of forced selling and de-leveraging is driving things down, and people are fleeing to cash for safety.  The fear-mongering doesn't help either.  I think you're probably catching a falling knife if you are looking for a short term return here.

However, from a long-term perspective, there are a lot of individual stocks trading at some very interesting prices, to the point that I might be inclined to go long (possibly very long) on things if I had a 10+ year horizon for my investments.  There are bargains for the value investor out there.  That's why we see Buffett jumping in, though he's doing it with a combination of equity and debt market maneuvers.



Musicmystery -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:28:15 PM)

~FR~

Everybody on every forum on every site posts the obvious thing about buying low and selling high. Trouble is, everybody's full of shit, as they don't do this.

Why? Easy. Would I buy up solid companies right now? Sure. Of Course. Then why aren't I buying them? Because I don't sit on a pile of uninvested cash. And why don't it? Because sitting on uninvested cash is a cost (opportunity cost).

As in most things---big difference between having an opinion and living it in real life.

[any offers on this soap box? starting at....]

Not to mention that finding the real bottom and real top of the market is far easier after the fact.



Real_Trouble -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:42:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

~FR~

Everybody on every forum on every site posts the obvious thing about buying low and selling high. Trouble is, everybody's full of shit, as they don't do this.

Why? Easy. Would I buy up solid companies right now? Sure. Of Course. Then why aren't I buying them? Because I don't sit on a pile of uninvested cash. And why don't it? Because sitting on uninvested cash is a cost (opportunity cost).



I would strongly disagree with this.

You'll find a lot of value investors who do, in fact, sit on piles of cash when they feel valuations are out of whack because it's a much greater cost to ride a bursting bubble down than it is to be patient.

Buffett missed the entire tech boom, for example, but more importantly, he missed the entire tech bust.  He's still sitting on a shitload of cash.

In my case, to put my money where my mouth is, I'm about 75% cash right now.  Waiting for the right time to strike.



Musicmystery -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:48:11 PM)

And while you sit on that, you earn nothing.

And if you have 75% cash, either (1) for years you've opted out of the market or (2) you've just dumped a bunch of stuff at a loss.

Yeah, of course lots of other scenarios are possible, but the myth of people just waiting for the right time ignores the economic reality of opportunity cost.

Given your Buffett example, I suspect you're missing the definition of cash in the investor sense. And Buffett definitely didn't sit around with uninvested cash for a decade.

But whatever. Enjoy your wealth.



Real_Trouble -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:53:14 PM)

I've been sitting with cash waiting in a high yield savings account for approximately one year now, as I bailed out in the middle of '07 when I started to get nervous about the "E" side of P/E ratios not holding up.  I've been dumping my money into a high yield savings account that, while it's bounced around with the fed action, has averaged about a ~4.1% EAR for that period.

I'd like you to compare that to the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, or virtually any emerging market.  You'll find I'm way, way, way, way, way up on the market. (the remainder of my money is in bonds currently; I've made a few short plays and made out well, but currently I've closed out on those, and I skipped the commodities bubble because I didn't really understand what was driving it and I have a rule that if I don't understand something, I refuse to invest in it, so I neither rode that up nor down)

And yes, Buffett does sit on a huge war chest.  No, it's not literally in cash, but it's in highly liquid investments or easily extricated (as I'm referring to above), because it's much easier to do that than overpay for something not worthwhile.  The float that is generated from his insurance / reinsurance investments is never 100% invested, and because the companies that fit the Berkshire profile tend to throw off a truckload of cash, he's usually got at least some on hand.  Notice he just recently dipped his toe in with Goldman and GE, and did so at an exorbitant price for them (a good play), because when you have cash and others don't, you are the strong hand.

I'm not advocating it as a permanent move, but sometimes it pays to know when everyone else is drunk and you need to leave the party for a while before coming back.  To suggest there are no value investors out there who pay attention to this does violence to a long legacy of value investors tracing back to Graham, Dodd, and beyond.  Now, I have nowhere near that amount of talent, but to say people don't do this is simply unadulterated bullshit, because there are plenty of people doing this.



Musicmystery -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 4:55:31 PM)

Enjoy your buying spree.



DedicatedDom40 -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 5:06:58 PM)

Listen to all these relatively poor folk strategizing their play in this rich man's game! lol

Like being in a poker game where you have a small 1 inch high pile of chips, while the other guys around the table have a pile of chips a foot high.  One hand they'll easily wipe you out, but hey, at least you got to sit at the table.

I agree, the fall isnt over yet.







LookieNoNookie -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 6:36:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Well, premarket trading today is point way way lower, a the S&P has hit a trigger because it fell to much the Dow is in premarket down 548 points as of this writing. Oh, man if it drops like 700.00(edit, during normal hours) or more I'm getting in with what I have available. Waiting for previous trades yesterday to settle, so only have 20% of account value available for buys. Fuck...

Here's a link to the premarket activity. Pretty scary.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/



And your point is?



LookieNoNookie -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:05:03 PM)


No.



KatyLied -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:20:31 PM)

Pick a small bank that does not have any toxic holdings on its balance sheet.  That's the one stock I have at the present time that is actually making some money.



LookieNoNookie -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:25:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: KatyLied

Pick a small bank that does not have any toxic holdings on its balance sheet.  That's the one stock I have at the present time that is actually making some money.


No.

Not now.



KatyLied -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:30:09 PM)

Oh, I wouldn't buy anything at this point.  At least not beyond where my retirements are already going.  I'm going to try very hard and be patient through all of this.  I don't think it's the best plan to completely redo your portfolio at this moment.



faerytattoodgirl -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:32:25 PM)

take your money...go to a canadian casino...you'll get 30 cents on every dollar with the exchange rate and gamble for free!...probably higher next week. 




servantforuse -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 7:48:08 PM)

That sounds like a great plan. Take $1000 to a casino and leave with $300...



NeedToUseYou -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/24/2008 11:36:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Real_Trouble

The question would be what kind of timeframe you have on your investments, and why you are getting in?

If you think you know something everyone else does not about the general direction of the markets, I doubt you'd be posting it on these boards; as to the rest, all that can really be guaranteed currently is lots of volatility.  I've been long that for a while, but beyond that, there's not much that I would feel comfortable trading in terms of directional picks.

Right now a lot of forced selling and de-leveraging is driving things down, and people are fleeing to cash for safety.  The fear-mongering doesn't help either.  I think you're probably catching a falling knife if you are looking for a short term return here.

However, from a long-term perspective, there are a lot of individual stocks trading at some very interesting prices, to the point that I might be inclined to go long (possibly very long) on things if I had a 10+ year horizon for my investments.  There are bargains for the value investor out there.  That's why we see Buffett jumping in, though he's doing it with a combination of equity and debt market maneuvers.



Oh my timeframe is from 30 minutes to a couple days thus far. LOL. or yesterday when I posted that I was expecting the market to collapse more. I tried to get in NCC at 1.75 because of the buyout, I didn't get in :(. If it just had dipped a bit further I'd have made about 25 percent in an hour. That's the stuff I'm looking at. Really hard dips, oversold, power diving stocks that are just caught up in market frenzy, but logically have no business nosediving.

Anyway, last week I eeked out 7 percent gain, Off quick buys and sells on relatively safe stocks. Phillip Morris, Dow(really good stock here paying 7% dividend at current price), and managed to eek out a little profit on KO(coke). INTC(Intel), I barely got out break even, before the fall. But 7% overall in a falling market .

Short term. In out to answer your question. At least until the market really tanks if it does. Then I'll pile up on Dow, that 7% dividend is really good.



popeye1250 -> RE: Time to get in the market Maybe? (10/25/2008 12:50:00 AM)

Well, I bought another 300 shares of NAT @25.13 fri morning at the open.
Just lucky I guess but they closed above that.
The company operates oil tankers in the "spot market" and pays most of it's earnings out to the owners.(investors)
Their dividend is at about 24% - 26%  now I believe, a hell of a lot better than a bank would give you and they have *zero debt* with a $500m line of credit.
They could halve their dividend and it would still be a good play.
They now have 13 Suez-Max Tankers and their break even point is below $9,000 per Tanker per day.
Last I checked the "spot rate daily" for Tankers was $54,000 per day and it's been up to $88,000 per day.
It's kind of a win/win for me, if they were to go down to $10 per share I'll buy 3 or 5 thousand more and hold them and continue to re-invest the dividends.
If it goes down I'll be buying it on the way down a few hundred here, a few hundred there.
(Always keep your powder dry.)
And none of the "big guys" are in this stock. Amazing!
For years the "college boys" on Wall Street only made fun of the company because it wasn't "sexy" enough.
If you'd bought $100k of this stock on Jan 1st 1998 and reinvested all the dividends you'd be collecting $58,000 in dividends *per quarter* now and buying brandnew Lincoln MKS's. :) Not bad for ten years work!
Boy am I glad I never got an "M.B.A."
It's much more profitable to be "stupid" with a "B.S."
Oh, and it's nice not having to go to a job everyday.
Some others I'm watching (WEL) they put out oil fires. (Boots and Coots) (Good numbers, great management) (Me, accumulate)
(CLF) they're an iron mining company and should have $20 per share in "free cash" by 2010, very profitable company.
Price is still falling with market. (Me, hold off until 2010 then start acumulating.)
We're two years into a bear market with another year or two to go so if you have a long time frame to invest there are a lot of bargains out there. I'm buying certain select companies with high yeilds but will start buying more agressivly in late 2009 into 2010.
When the markets take off again you can make a lot of money in a short time frame- 6 to 12 months.
I love to hear people talking doom and gloom!



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