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Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/11/2008 7:40:31 PM   
JohnboyNC


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http://hubpages.com/hub/Take-Your-Money-Out-Of-The-Stock-Market-Now

alot of older americans are pulling their money out of the markets & banks all across the country because of advice like above. 
a friend of mine feels that this is not good for the market.  senior citizens have alot of wealth and they invest.  but when they hear things like above they will panic!!!  i was in the bank the day WaMu failed.  in line i saw 3 to 4 senior citizens wanting to close their bank accounts.  i could tell they were panicked. 
what do you guys think?
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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 2:47:42 AM   
Rever


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yeah, i'm thinking of buying stocks in some companys while the stocks are low

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 6:56:35 AM   
UncleNasty


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Panic, like fear and hesitation, can actually be the thing that makes your/our worst fears manifest.

Collectively, responding to these feelings by withdrawing has the effect, or can have, of causing more and more devaluations. On an individual basis I am in no position to tell someone else how to respond to their fears. "Leave your investments alone, and continue to take losses, so that others will have losses that are less." No, it isn't my place.

Some that would like to convert their assets from the market to other more solid investments are hesitant because of tax liabilities, which can be fairly high. Take a loss in the market and then take another one on taxes? Hard pills to swallow. I expect if there were no tax consequences mor epeople would have already done that.

Uncle Nasty

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 7:04:28 AM   
Musicmystery


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The average investors have always been sheep, ignoring that the mere existence of a market means someone's buying when others are selling, and vice versa. Consequently, people "timing" the market buy high and sell low.

Greed and complacency play a role too. Now is the time to buy or wait, depending on individual circumstances. But when things are good again, it's time to move assets to bonds and the money market, not wait for the next bubble to burst.

Money from retirement accounts MUST be drawn down, by law, after age 70. Retirees without sufficient assets in bonds or cash are indeed going to get fucked.

< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/12/2008 7:05:34 AM >

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 7:48:58 AM   
corysub


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I think it might be a good idea to take as much money out of the bank that you might need for a month.  All of the accounts up to $250,000 by the government and are safe..but, we are on the brink of something that no one knows what!  So you lose interest on a months worth of cash..not much these days anyway, but at least should one of the programs be to have a "bank holiday" and the ATM stops spitting out your money..what are you gonna do to buy food, gas..or whatever.  Again..not doomsday..just a little conservative option during these turbulent times. 

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 10:28:44 AM   
kinkbound


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I'm not a fan of Cramer, but my guess is that he meant well when he made the statement.

Fear and greed will continue to motivate actions of man.  

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 12:33:21 PM   
TNstepsout


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A few individuals, or even a few million individuals pulling their money out of the stock market is not what has caused it to crash and burn. It is hedge funds that HAD to sell millions of shares to raise funds that has caused the drop. So in light of a sell off of mass proportions, it is good advice for the individual to get out, wait for it to bottom and then get back in. At least  IMO, that's the best thing to do. There are those who still think "buy and hold" pays out over the long term but I don't have the stomach for it.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 12:40:47 PM   
Musicmystery


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Investors need to do their homework.

If you owned a stake in the corner store, assuming it's a fundamentally sound business with competent management, would you sell your shares and buy them back later?

The problem is that people treat the stock market as a casino, and still others treat the market indexes as accurate indicators of the overall economy.



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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 12:55:26 PM   
OneMoreWaste


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
Investors need to do their homework.


A-MEN.

Too many people just throw money into the market with no real understanding of how it works, or what their money is getting. They just look at the historical numbers (often accompanied by wildly off-index graphs), and figure it must be a sure bet, because everyone else is doing it.

It's all a game, and like any game involving money, you'd best learn the rules before you start to play... otherwise, you're just chum.

Really, the best time to get out of the market was a year ago, when it was hanging around a record high (remember, "high" is when you want to sell!). If you're going to follow an analyst's advice, take a look at what he was saying back then, or at least a couple months ago


_____________________________

-and the few still remember passion over rage-

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 12:57:17 PM   
Musicmystery


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It's not a game, but too many people treat it like a game.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 2:09:09 PM   
awmslave


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Obviously even Jim Cramer was unable to predict the collapse. Otherwise, he would have issued this advise a month ago. I would advise to look at your stock holdings on individual basis. Some companies will hold well during recession times. Keeping your wealth in US dollars is not a good idea either: dollar will inevitably loose substantially in near future (do not let current rise fool you). Canadian dollar will be a little better and it is easy for US citizens to open relatively high interest savings account with  Canadian banks. Also, some properties can be aquired at  relatively low cost.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 2:58:08 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: corysub

I think it might be a good idea to take as much money out of the bank that you might need for a month.

And Santayana is proved right yet again.

One thing that made past recessions, including the great depression of 1929 to 1933, so much worse than anything most people alive today have ever experienced was bank runs. As was so eloquently explained in "It's a Wonderful Life" no bank has all the deposits available at a moments notice. Rushing to your bank and withdrawing a substantial portion of your deposits is a recipe for bank failure even if the bank is otherwise healthy. Keep an eye on status of your banks and if any seem to be in serious trouble and you have more than 250k deposited you should then, and only then for the time being, withdraw your deposits.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 3:03:39 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

including the great depression of 1929 to 1933


Ken,

Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: Great Depression

Longest and most severe economic depression ever experienced by the Western world. It began in the U.S. soon after the New York Stock Market Crash of 1929 and lasted until about 1939.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 5:10:39 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

including the great depression of 1929 to 1933


Ken,

Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: Great Depression

Longest and most severe economic depression ever experienced by the Western world. It began in the U.S. soon after the New York Stock Market Crash of 1929 and lasted until about 1939.


More correctly the depression lasted from 29 to 33. There were several years of fairly anemic recovery and then another downward dip in 37 lasting till the war industry started gearing up in 1939.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 5:19:01 PM   
Musicmystery


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Ken, if you want to take that tack, you've a lot of explaining to do.

"Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: Great Depression

Longest and most severe economic depression ever experienced by the Western world. It began in the U.S. soon after the New York Stock Market Crash of 1929 and lasted until about 1939. By late 1932 stock values had dropped to about 20% of their previous value, and by 1933 11,000 of the U.S.'s 25,000 banks had failed. These and other conditions, worsened by monetary policy mistakes and adherence to the gold standard, led to much-reduced levels of demand and hence of production, resulting in high unemployment (by 1932, 25 – 30%). Since the U.S. was the major creditor and financier of postwar Europe, the U.S. financial breakdown precipitated economic failures around the world, especially in Germany and Britain. Isolationism spread as nations sought to protect domestic production by imposing tariffs and quotas, ultimately reducing the value of international trade by more than half by 1932. The Great Depression contributed to political upheaval. It led to the election of U.S. Pres. Franklin Roosevelt, who introduced major changes in the structure of the U.S. economy through his New Deal. The Depression also advanced Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany in 1933 and fomented political extremism in other countries. Before the Great Depression, governments relied on impersonal market forces to achieve economic correction; afterward, government action came to assume a principal role in ensuring economic stability."

"US History Encyclopedia: Great Depression
Great Depression, the longest, deepest, and most pervasive depression in American history, lasted from 1929 to 1939. Its effects were felt in virtually all corners of the world, and it is one of the great economic calamities in history.

In previous depressions, such as those of the 1870s and 1890s, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP)—the sum of all goods and services produced, weighted by market prices and adjusted for inflation—had returned to its original level within five years. In the Great Depression, real per capita GDP was still below its 1929 level a decade later."

Bank failures did, indeed reach their height in 1933, but that hardly signals the end of the depression. Nor does anemic recovery. And yes, 37 was better than 33, but that's hardly a case for the depression ending in 33.

Reminds me of Nixon's bullshit about the rate of increase decreasing.


< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/12/2008 5:22:48 PM >

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 7:22:46 PM   
TNstepsout


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

It's not a game, but too many people treat it like a game.


No, it's not a game, it's a business, but that doesn't mean you have to buy and hold a stock. There are many ways to be profitable in the market. In the 30's when the market crashed, it took 20 years for the market to reach the levels it was at at the peak in 1929. That means if you didn't sell somewhere on the way down, depending on where you purchased, it could take you 20 years just to break even! That's just not good business.

If you buy a stock at $100 and it drops to $80, you've lost 20%. Sell it and wait for it to drop to $40 and get back in. Then if it jumps to $60, you've made your money back. If you'd held it, you'd be sitting on a %40 loss! It's likely that the market will gain 10-15% fairly quickly as people buy up stocks at bargain prices and the market rallies after the big sell-off. However, I think it will take FAR longer for it to reach peak prices, or even the prices of a month ago.



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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 7:41:39 PM   
Musicmystery


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Many people try to play that game. Few are as smart as they think they are. Good luck with that.



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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 8:09:39 PM   
LookieNoNookie


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Ken, if you want to take that tack, you've a lot of explaining to do.

"Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: Great Depression

Longest and most severe economic depression ever experienced by the Western world. It began in the U.S. soon after the New York Stock Market Crash of 1929 and lasted until about 1939. By late 1932 stock values had dropped to about 20% of their previous value, and by 1933 11,000 of the U.S.'s 25,000 banks had failed. These and other conditions, worsened by monetary policy mistakes and adherence to the gold standard, led to much-reduced levels of demand and hence of production, resulting in high unemployment (by 1932, 25 – 30%). Since the U.S. was the major creditor and financier of postwar Europe, the U.S. financial breakdown precipitated economic failures around the world, especially in Germany and Britain. Isolationism spread as nations sought to protect domestic production by imposing tariffs and quotas, ultimately reducing the value of international trade by more than half by 1932. The Great Depression contributed to political upheaval. It led to the election of U.S. Pres. Franklin Roosevelt, who introduced major changes in the structure of the U.S. economy through his New Deal. The Depression also advanced Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany in 1933 and fomented political extremism in other countries. Before the Great Depression, governments relied on impersonal market forces to achieve economic correction; afterward, government action came to assume a principal role in ensuring economic stability."

"US History Encyclopedia: Great Depression
Great Depression, the longest, deepest, and most pervasive depression in American history, lasted from 1929 to 1939. Its effects were felt in virtually all corners of the world, and it is one of the great economic calamities in history.

In previous depressions, such as those of the 1870s and 1890s, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP)—the sum of all goods and services produced, weighted by market prices and adjusted for inflation—had returned to its original level within five years. In the Great Depression, real per capita GDP was still below its 1929 level a decade later."

Bank failures did, indeed reach their height in 1933, but that hardly signals the end of the depression. Nor does anemic recovery. And yes, 37 was better than 33, but that's hardly a case for the depression ending in 33.

Reminds me of Nixon's bullshit about the rate of increase decreasing.



Hahahahahahahaha....once again, the guitar player explains economics to the masses.

< Message edited by LookieNoNookie -- 10/12/2008 8:24:05 PM >

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 10:46:20 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Ken, if you want to take that tack, you've a lot of explaining to do.

"Britannica Concise Encyclopedia: Great Depression

Longest and most severe economic depression ever experienced by the Western world.

This is wrong even if you accept that the great depression lasted unbroken from 29 to 39. The US was in a depression from 1873 to 1896.

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RE: Stock market advice or fiction? - 10/12/2008 11:47:20 PM   
NeedToUseYou


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I think I hope the market keeps falling until a minute after I buy. Almost bought Friday, again, until I started looking at the Lehman auction stuff, and the big question marks hanging over its possible effects. So, hell, and as long as the government keeps manipulating the entire thing I can never rely on an even reasonable set of variables to judge off of. They take one, loan to another, let another fail straight out, Back mergers. Who the hell knows what they are going to do and the effect that will have.

So, anyway, whatever, I guess. At this rate probably be months.

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