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Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 9:02:49 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
Status: offline 		I figured with all this economy talk going on why not make a game of it.

Put down what you think the market low will ultimately be in this downturn to keep it simple the Dow primarily though you can guess more.

Guess if the Dow will be up or down tomorrow and by how much.

If you are watching a particular stock or stocks. What is your entry price, or where do you think it will bottom.


I'll go ahead, I think the DOW will eventually hit around 8500

Tomorrow, I'm guessing down a couple hundred, because of Bank of Americas revised earnings numbers being slashed in afterhours, unless the interfering FED announces some new money give away. (would not be the first time the FED has ruined my plans, to buy, by announcing some new money give away).

I'm looking to possibly enter the market if Bank of America dips below 20.00, which is now possible again, because of the cutting dividend, and profit plunge and share dilution. Why below 20.00? Well, because even with a 50% reduction in dividend, and declining profit margins they still are profitable, and buying below 20.00 at .32 dividend and weaker profits, is more or less equivalent to buying at 40.00 with a .64 dividend and stronger profits. The FED will not let Bank of America go the way of other banks, IMO, they've adsorbed to much of the economy. So, even if I'm wrong and the bottom is significantly lower than 20.00 well, long term it will still be a good investment, as they will be one of the last to go on the way to a great depression if it spirals that way. If not and the economy rebounds, BAC will easily reach new highs, because its acquisitions will pay off well in a recovered economy and I'll be sitting pretty and can work towards my projects more quickly. Now, below 20.00 is my upper limit, here, I may depending on announcements, change this, downward. But I doubt I'll buy it higher. Long term it wouldn't be bad at 20.00 or even higher, but I'm greedy like that, I like to buy absurdly low. So, I may not get an opportunity. And short term I'd take gains of 5.00 dollars, and get out(FED manipulating the market probably), if I did buy unless some solid good economic news came out, then I'd simply hold.

Right now, I'm more looking for quick turnaround if possible, but not losing my ass permanently if things don't work out as expected.


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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 9:12:39 PM   
bluepanda


Posts: 328
Joined: 12/12/2005
Status: offline 		I'm not going to make any predictions or toss around my price points, but I will say I'm very excited about the opportunities that are certainly coming. I've got a considerable pool of cash standing by waiting for the right buys. It's a scary market, but it's a great time to be a buyer. 

(in reply to NeedToUseYou)
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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 9:20:51 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bluepanda

I'm not going to make any predictions or toss around my price points, but I will say I'm very excited about the opportunities that are certainly coming. I've got a considerable pool of cash standing by waiting for the right buys. It's a scary market, but it's a great time to be a buyer. 


I currently have 2% in stocks the rest in cash. So, going to make a move some time, question is when.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 9:22:56 PM   
corysub


Posts: 1492
Joined: 1/1/2004
Status: offline 		 
My guess is that the Fed cuts rates together with the G-8 in a co-ordinated move to unfreeze credit markets.  The market came back from the brink Monday and, while down on the day, the day was brutal maybe we saw a near term trading rally.  My bet would be for an up market on Tuesday...

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 9:35:41 PM   
OneMoreWaste


Posts: 910
Joined: 8/24/2008
Status: offline 		Bounce tomorrow, week will end lower than today by at least a couple hundred.

I would say that, with 5000 points as the Dow ceiling for decades on end, we'll reach that level again before things really stabilize. I think inflation will counterbalance the reduction in actual value of the composite companies.

I'm waiting for some local real estate to come up for <$5k/acre, then I'll buy


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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 10:19:04 PM   
bluepanda


Posts: 328
Joined: 12/12/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

quote:

ORIGINAL: bluepanda

I'm not going to make any predictions or toss around my price points, but I will say I'm very excited about the opportunities that are certainly coming. I've got a considerable pool of cash standing by waiting for the right buys. It's a scary market, but it's a great time to be a buyer. 


I currently have 2% in stocks the rest in cash. So, going to make a move some time, question is when.



Yep. The timing will be a bit tricky, but I don't mind getting in a little late. There'll be plenty of upside once it starts climbing again.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 10:45:27 PM   
TieNTeas


Posts: 101
Joined: 11/15/2005
Status: offline 		http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

"Australian stocks jumped after the country's central bank cut interest rates by a bigger-than-expected 1 percentage point to 6 percent in response to the unfolding global financial crisis. The S&P/ASX-200 index rose 2 percent to 4,634 after opening down 3.7 percent."

Bank of Japan kept rates steady.  We'll see what Europe does in a few hours.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/6/2008 11:09:40 PM   
kinkbound


Posts: 387
Joined: 9/15/2007
Status: offline 		If I were a speculator, I'd go with the Dow closing up tomorrow by around 200 points. But I don't believe the market has seen a bottom yet.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/7/2008 3:15:42 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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I won, today. Only one that predicted Dow down!!!. So, I get the prize and that  is my choice of any two ladies giving me 8 hours of no holds barred anything goes debauchery.  The lucky ladies will receive e-mails shortly.

I've never won anything I'm so happy for the lucky ladies.

< Message edited by NeedToUseYou -- 10/7/2008 3:16:01 PM >

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/7/2008 3:57:46 PM   
Politesub53


Posts: 14862
Joined: 5/7/2007
Status: offline 		The Bank of England intends to buy £50bn of bank shares with taxpayers money tomorrow. I am expecting the FTSE to rise, hopefully that will have a knock on effect in America.

Whats in it for the taxpayer who knows, probably a loss, long term.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/7/2008 3:58:06 PM   
TNstepsout


Posts: 1558
Joined: 8/3/2005
Status: offline 		I would guess around 8,500 as well. But since you already said that I'll go a bit lower and say 8,200. 

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/7/2008 4:24:21 PM   
corysub


Posts: 1492
Joined: 1/1/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou



I won, today. Only one that predicted Dow down!!!. So, I get the prize and that  is my choice of any two ladies giving me 8 hours of no holds barred anything goes debauchery.  The lucky ladies will receive e-mails shortly.

I've never won anything I'm so happy for the lucky ladies.


Congrats!   I couldn't have been more wrong!

         

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/8/2008 1:34:40 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
Status: offline 		Tommorow,Oct 9, prediction up 200.00ish. I almost was able to buy BAC today, darn it. Would have sold though same day, as the little off low rally looked weak. Anyway, I should have put a premarket hours bid in I guess. It hit lower 19's in premarket. 

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/9/2008 1:36:21 PM   
NeedToUseYou


Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Tommorow,Oct 9, prediction up 200.00ish. I almost was able to buy BAC today, darn it. Would have sold though same day, as the little off low rally looked weak. Anyway, I should have put a premarket hours bid in I guess. It hit lower 19's in premarket. 


wow, couldn't have missed that by more. Only off by 800 points. Not that bad LOL. Thinking maybe I'm even to optimistic. Imagine that.

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/9/2008 4:44:53 PM   
OneMoreWaste


Posts: 910
Joined: 8/24/2008
Status: offline 		Yeah, I may have been wrong in calling the dead-cat bounce, but that was some serious fail! 
Hope you enjoyed your debauchery while you could afford it!


_____________________________

-and the few still remember passion over rage-

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RE: Guess the market or stock - 10/9/2008 5:53:12 PM   
TNstepsout


Posts: 1558
Joined: 8/3/2005
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: NeedToUseYou

Tommorow,Oct 9, prediction up 200.00ish. I almost was able to buy BAC today, darn it. Would have sold though same day, as the little off low rally looked weak. Anyway, I should have put a premarket hours bid in I guess. It hit lower 19's in premarket. 


That would have been my guess too. I thought the worst of the BIG selloff was done and we'd see a slow bleed for the next month or so. Oh boy was I wrong. Now I'm beginning to think my pick of 8,200 was too high.

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