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Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 6:15:40 PM

Owner59

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From: Dirty Jersey
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Bad news for McCain

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/02/obama-hits-50-percent-in-new-gallup-poll/

You can`t win without getting over 50 percent.

When Palin joined,McCain was 2 points ahead.Now after bit more than one week,Mr Obama is 7 pionts ahead,a 9 point gain.

Thank you, Sarah.

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Post #: 1

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 9:41:27 PM

BitaTruble

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From: Texas
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Well, technically, you can't win if your opponent gets over 50%, but yeah.. it works for me.

Of course, we still have that dreaded "Oct surprise" although if it's a rehash of Obama being a terrorist, muslim, racist blah, blah, blah.. that's not going to work and it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see such bashing. That card was played to early so now it's too late but the only one who doesn't seem to 'get' that is Ms. Palin. Of course, according to her own words, last minute negative campaigning is 'politics as usual' and 'the voters don't want to hear that' so it would be the height of hypocrisy for her to engage in such tactics .. even though she just did.

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 9:50:48 PM

NumberSix

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The dreaded october surprise is shaping up to be the loss of more jobs.

That wont play well in several states.

6

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 9:53:14 PM

MzMia

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

Bad news for McCain

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/02/obama-hits-50-percent-in-new-gallup-poll/

You can`t win without getting over 50 percent.

When Palin joined,McCain was 2 points ahead.Now after bit more than one week,Mr Obama is 7 pionts ahead,a 9 point gain.

Thank you, Sarah.

Thank you Owner!
This is great news, the people are waking up.
The economy has been a kick in the ass, and a wake
up call for many.

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"My partner's whisper"--bloomswell

(in reply to Owner59)

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 9:56:36 PM

BitaTruble

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quote:

ORIGINAL: NumberSix

The dreaded october surprise is shaping up to be the loss of more jobs.

That wont play well in several states.

6

Yeah, probably not the surprise the McCain camp had in mind. I think it's a karma thing.. you know.. that whole "another attack would be good for McCain thing" .. and.. ouch.

_____________________________

"Oh, so it's just like
Rock, paper, scissors."

He laughed. "You are the wisest woman I know."

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Post #: 5

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 10:20:49 PM

FangsNfeet

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Polls, polls, and more polls. Why am I never apart of the polls?

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/4/2008 11:18:02 PM

TheHeretic

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From: California, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

You can`t win without getting over 50 percent.

Nonsense, O59. Bill Clinton never got close in either win.

Enjoy your celebration of the daily numbers though.

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 6:23:41 AM

bipolarber

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McCain's "October Surprise:" (whispers) Obama fathered two black children!

(in reply to TheHeretic)

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 7:30:26 AM

cloudboy

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quote:

Thank you, Sarah.

Its just unbelievable.

(in reply to Owner59)

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 7:40:54 AM

Owner59

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

You can`t win without getting over 50 percent.

Nonsense, O59. Bill Clinton never got close in either win.

Enjoy your celebration of the daily numbers though.

Yeah right,in a three way race w/ Ross the boss.

This is a two way race.lol

Bush Sr. loosing to Clinton still hurts,I see.

~~~~~~~~~~~~

He`s been above 50 % for 10 days now and the gap grows,....daily.

I am however,enjoying the angst by cons over it,...daily.

Thank you again, Sarah.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 10/5/2008 7:55:35 AM >

_____________________________

"As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals"

President Obama

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Post #: 10

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 7:45:40 AM

LadyEllen

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I didnt think it made any difference in the US system whether one got 51% of the vote - that it was all down to how the electoral college thingy worked out?

Similar to here, where "first past the post" means a party wins an election on the basis of seats won rather than votes overall, and New Labour for instance acquired overwhelming numbers of seats and so power with only 36% of the vote, 20% of the electorate including non-voters.

E

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RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 7:52:22 AM

Musicmystery

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A number of Presidents have won with less than 50% of the popular vote---including Bush.

A candidate needs to win a majority of electoral votes, and since most states are "winner take all," that's possible without a popular majority.

(in reply to LadyEllen)

Post #: 12

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 8:17:10 AM

Owner59

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From: Dirty Jersey
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Musicalmystery,

The 50 % is not scientific,more of a trend and has had exceptions.

It is however a powerful bench mark and great news for Obama/Biden.

For the first time aswell,people now see Obama as a safer pick.Till recently,more folks viewed McCain as safer.That`s huge.

Obama is way ahead in three key states,New Hampshire,Michigan and Pennsylvania.

He`s ahead in a few red states and stronger than ever in blue states.

I`m not someone who counts on polls.They are only momentary snapshots of opinion.The only relevant poll is on Nov. 4th.

But trends can be followed and some info can be gleaned.

It was polling after all,that motivated McCain to abandon Michigan.

_____________________________

"As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals"

President Obama

(in reply to Musicmystery)

Post #: 13

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 8:21:01 AM

Musicmystery

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btw, the link you posted is over a month old----Sept 2.

Here's an update from this morning's New York Times:

Economic Unrest Shifts Electoral Battlegrounds

< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 10/5/2008 8:24:46 AM >

(in reply to Musicmystery)

Post #: 14

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/5/2008 8:21:29 AM

Termyn8or

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The only poll that counts is the one that opens in November.

I heard years ago that the electoral college was not bound by law to vote their constituency, I have not bothered to confirm that because it seems like political suicide to vote against the people. But with enough of a bribe, and a nice cushy job after you get voted out on your ass, I suppose it could happen.

T

(in reply to Musicmystery)

Post #: 15

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/12/2008 5:38:53 AM

Manawyddan

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From: Petaluma (Northern California)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or
I heard years ago that the electoral college was not bound by law to vote their constituency, I have not bothered to confirm that because it seems like political suicide to vote against the people. But with enough of a bribe, and a nice cushy job after you get voted out on your ass, I suppose it could happen.

It is true, and it's not only happened under the scenario you describe. Roger McBride in 1972 cast his Republican party vote for the Libertarian candidate.

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Post #: 16

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/12/2008 6:10:34 AM

Musicmystery

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In 1976 one of the electors from Washington cast his vote for Ronald Reagan (yes, 1976)

(in reply to Manawyddan)

Post #: 17

RE: Obama hits over 50% in Gallup poll - 10/12/2008 6:40:08 AM

PlayfulOne

Posts: 1047
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic
Nonsense, O59. Bill Clinton never got close in either win.
Enjoy your celebration of the daily numbers though.

It appears someone needs a history lesson.

1992 Presidential Election
         Bill Clinton 43 %
         George Bush 37.7%
         Ross Perot 18.9%

So as far as not even close to 50%? I would say 43% is in the ball park, especially with a significant third person running.

1996 presidential Election
         Bill Clinton 49.24%
         Bob Dole 40.71
         Ross Perot 8.4%

Now surely your not going to try and tell us that wasn't anywhere close to 50%?

But please feel free to not let facts interfere with your statements.

K

(in reply to TheHeretic)

Post #: 18

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