rook42
Posts: 110
Joined: 10/2/2005 Status: offline
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The Poor Man's Guide to Winning: As far as statistics go... People read about them, but very rarely think about them fully. Odds are not that bad, not only for breaking even but for making money on average. Look at mega millions. Expected value of a 1 dollar ticket, where J= Jackpot: E(V)= J/175,711,536+250,000/3,904,701+150/15,313+10,000/689,065+150/13,781+7/306+3/141+2/75 At about a 146 million jackpot, you're staying even, on average. With a slight statistical error ;) You're doing MUCH better than the average day-trader retiree these past couple years. Of course... That's because you have the balls to invest in a REAL gamble, and you cant back out of your bet. And you didnt spend the time, stress, and health thinking you could change the outcome. Course, you're still losing to currency risk, but that's what happens when you invest in the deficit: politics are a form of gambling too, and I sure as hell didn't elect him. The ROI for a 200 million jackpot is like 30%- not that bad for a near instant investment. And there are other utilities given by that ticket, too. It sounds silly, but a ticket is a good way to back out of candy/nicotine cravings, and the money goes to education. Sure, the volatility of your 1 dollar "portfolio" is through the roof. But the utility of the health benefits is staggering- justify that ticket over a coke or a bag of chips, save your teeth and your heart, and you're making a MAJOR profit(Maybe the trick for a philanthropist to protect these mistreated gamblers is not to prevent their spending- if they dont have the money, we cant buy the cigs. Do you really think we were on our way to buying better health insurance when we made the impulse buy of a lottery ticket?). That, and save the losing ticket to deduct your gambling losses, and you've mitigated part of the tax by ousting it on other taxpayers. "A waste of money"? "A tax on the poor"? HA! That's just a ploy impoverished smarties say to convince the richies not to play. Serious Aside: Ok. Regardless of how poor or uneducated you are... buying the lottery ticket is still your own choice. There are no negative obstacles to liberty: if anything, you're giving people the CHOICE of putting money into the education system. Income demographics mean nothing. People have the right to spend their own money, the same as they have the right to pierce themselves. Take away that right for their own good, and it's no different than outlawing piercing to protect the uneducated from infection*. Statistics are not a proxy for human choice. (*Is there still a negative correlation between piercings and income, and a positive correlation between infections and piercings? My guess would be yes. I'd rather make the assumption of free will and risk awareness, or there's a LOT of activities that are unethical- smoking, piercing, drinking, biking, sexing, and eating among them.)
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