Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (Full Version)

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outlier -> Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:03:35 AM)


I have this question.  Is "the surge" really working as something permanent? 
Or just a temporary hold on a flawed system?

Certainly McCain kept claiming it was permanent change during the debate.

I have fixed enough high pressure fluid systems, to know that you can,
in an emergency, apply a pressure patch that will hold as long as something
is there to keep the pressure on it.  But the basic system still is not right.
Therefore as soon as the pressure is removed everything goes wrong again.

And in the meantime it can seriously drain your resources to maintain the
position and pressure necessary for the patch to hold.

It seems to me that many indigenous forces throughout history have won
wars over superior invading forces by just laying low and blending in when
there is great pressure and then rising up when the cost of maintaining the
pressure becomes too great for the superior army to maintain.

Is that what is likely to happen in Iraq? 

A bandage on the other hand holds things together and you can rely on the
basic system, the human body, to heal itself.  Sometimes with the assistance
of medicines or other treatments.

Thus the question about "the surge" in Iraq
Is Iraq a basically healthy system that has been repaired so now
it can be counted on to heal itself?  Bandage

Or is it flawed and will show itself as bad again as soon as the pressure is removed? Patch

AND WHY DO YOU HOLD YOUR OPINION?




kittinSol -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:10:42 AM)

To continue with your medical metaphore, I see it this way: the 'surge' is akin to a prosthetic limb being fitted on to a patient who suffered an unecessary amputation.




celticlord2112 -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:20:55 AM)

The answer is immediately obvious.  It is a bandage.

The proof is the stance of the Iraqi government speaking definitively about the time coming for US troops to leave Iraq.  The Iraqi government wishes to control its own destiny--thus the surge accomplished its mission objective.

Large political issues remain in Iraq, but they will be resolved by Iraqis--exactly as they should be.



meatcleaver -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:25:33 AM)

On BBC Newsnight a couple of evenings ago they had a report on the surge. While everyone agreed there had been a lot of progress and ravaged places now have peace. In one of the most deadly areas of Bagdad a year ago, life has somewhat normalized but the American commander on the ground and the local Iraqis all think the peace will fall apart as soon as the Americans leave and central government takes over the security forces. One Iraqi said their relationship with the Americans is a love-hate one, no one wants to be occupied by a foreign force but no one wants the chaos everyone knows is waiting when the Americans pull out.



slvemike4u -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:26:10 AM)

Now if only our politicians and generals had your certitude....



kittinSol -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:28:13 AM)

Or: remove the patch (the 'surge') and the haemorrage (the consequence of the invasion) will resume.



slvemike4u -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:29:16 AM)

You think?



kittinSol -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:30:01 AM)

I fear so [&o] .



slvemike4u -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 10:33:01 AM)

Yep.....despite the sure and positive opinions of some ,this is a definite possibility.



DomKen -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 11:27:35 AM)

The surge did nothing.

What reduced the violence was a convergence of three factors.

1) The sunni populace becoming disenchanted with the al Quaeda in Iraq tactics and the foreigners who were doing the attacks.

2) The sunni militias agreeing to stand down for monthly payments and a promise of eventual government jobs.

3) Muqtada al Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia have stepped down their attacks against the government, sunni populace and american troops to avoid further strenghthening his political opponents and their Iranian backers.

1 seems permanent. 2 and 3 are not and could fall apart at any time. With the sunni militias not receiving the promised government jobs that seems the most likely thing to fall apart as the foulup in their payments showed back in the spring.



NumberSix -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (9/28/2008 11:33:53 AM)

2) The sunni militias agreeing to stand down for monthly payments and a promise of eventual government jobs.

I would christen this by far and away the number one reason.

We are training new freedom fighters for money, not for ideology as some would have you think --this hasn't worked out real well in the past since time immemorial. 

Short sightedness for 'winning'  again.

6



Vendaval -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (10/1/2008 2:09:05 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: outlier

It seems to me that many indigenous forces throughout history have won wars over superior invading forces by just laying low and blending in when there is great pressure and then rising up when the cost of maintaining the pressure becomes too great for the superior army to maintain.

That is a common outcome.


Is that what is likely to happen in Iraq? 

In my opinion, yes.


Thus the question about "the surge" in Iraq
Is Iraq a basically healthy system that has been repaired so now
it can be counted on to heal itself? 

No, the political, social and economic problems in Iraq are not fixed and will take decades to be repaired.


Or is it flawed and will show itself as bad again as soon as the pressure is removed?

I think that both the blood will flow again and the temporarily surpressed infections (violence between Sunni and Shia) will return.


AND WHY DO YOU HOLD YOUR OPINION?

The history of this particular area of the world and the common outcome to post-colonial governments, anarchy followed by dictators followed by anarchy, ad naseum.  Add a rather pessimistic view of human nature when it comes to politics.




DarkSteven -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (10/1/2008 5:27:27 AM)

The surge is the first time anything in the Ieaq war has gone according to plan.  The Bushies have seized upon it and tried to ignore everything else.  McCain's message of "I was for the war but against everything Bush did until the surge" is too complex compared to Obama's "The war is stupid and I opposed it from the start".

The surge has gained mythic proportions because the GOP has had to trumpet it for political survival.



LadyEllen -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (10/1/2008 5:47:06 AM)

Purely temporary in my opinion, in readiness for an election year if I were to be cynical about it.

The history and culture of that region would suggest that a "strongman" leader and henchmen is the only probable regime that will suffice, regrettably perhaps as far as our declared aims, once our original aims were found to be illegitimate, are concerned.

With us having removed the incumbent strongman, Iraq will in my view find a new one; the question really is how that will occur - bloody civil war or political machinations. This is for the Iraqi people to decide.

The sad part is that all of this - the deaths, injuries and sufferings of our brave troops and the innocent Iraqi population, the crippling social and financial cost to the US and the UK will have been for nothing, and may indeed - should the new strongman be one who supports those we name as enemies, have left us in a worse position that when we started, in a vital strategic area of the world.

I truly hope that I am wrong.

E

(edited because a naughty kitty cat sat on the keyboard and made the post 3 ft long!)



Vendaval -> RE: Is "The Surge" a patch or a bandage? (10/1/2008 1:53:18 PM)

hee hee...my cat has caused the same kind of chaos with the keyboard in the past.  When he was a kitten he somehow pushed all the right buttons to flip the image on the screen upside down completely!  Thankfully my boy was able to find the solution by searching Online.  [:D]



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