The China Price (Full Version)

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Level -> The China Price (8/25/2008 3:39:16 AM)

quote:

With the recent scandals involving tainted food and toys from China, and mounting concern over the ever-growing pollution produced by Chinese industry, it is clear that what happens in China does not stay in China: It has a tangible, and at times devastating, global effect. With The China Price: The True Cost of Chinese Competitive Advantage, veteran foreign correspondent Alexandra Harney has written an exposé of how China’s factory economy competes for Western business by—in her words—selling out its workers, its environment, and its future.

Harney’s book is notable for putting a human face to China’s rapid economic growth by learning about the challenges facing factory workers. Among the book’s major revelations is Harney’s reporting on the little known, but vitally significant, parallel system of factories that operate in China today—the “five-star” facilities that get inspected and audited by foreign buyers, and the “black” unlicensed, un-inspected factories that make some of the products that end up in stores in the west. Notably, all the players in this system demand the “China price”—the workers want more hours so they can send more money to their homes; the foreign buyers want prices that are often unrealistically low, so that the only way for factories to meet it is to massively cut corners and disobeys health, safety, and environmental laws.

Harney’s book notably documents the towering costs of the “China Price” to the world’s largest manufacturing workforce—the Chinese themselves: Horrendous health problems (the worst in the world per capita); the lack of safety inspectors in factories; and the world’s most dangerous coal mines. Harney noted that “the consequences of this system are clear: Western consumers obtain cheap goods, but at a price, to ourselves, and to China.”

Author’s Path to the Book
Early in her career, Harney studied Japanese because she believed them to be her “future bosses,” but while in Japan she realized that all the Japanese were studying Mandarin, which prompted her to move to Hong Kong. While working for the Financial Times, Harney visited factories in Guangdong that served as an inspiration for her book. These were the factories where women made $100 a month and had just enough to buy tissues and soap. At first, Harney worked through a translator and found herself followed everywhere by a Shenzhen public relations representative who called himself her friend. So she changed her name to a Chinese one, improved her Chinese, and traveled around China on her own, conducting most of her research in Guangdong.

Guangdong Province, which produces one-third of China’s goods, has a population of 110 million with over 400,000 factories, some with more than 250,000 employees. If Guangdong was a country, it would be slightly smaller than Saudi Arabia in terms of GDP. The economy is fueled primarily by rural migrants, who do not enjoy state services such as insurance, subsidized housing, and education.


http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=1421&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=399140

I saw the author on C-SPAN recently, and her book brings up a number of interesting questions. How long can China keep a lid on wages, and the consequent rise in price to their markets (like Wal-Mart)? If prices go up, then what? There isn't really another China out there to take their place, so the days of cheap stuff for Americans to buy would be over, bringing added pressures to our economy.




Sanity -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 4:25:13 AM)

Great article, Level, thank you for posting it.

Regarding your question, I see it like this - prices are going up. Chinese wages and more importantly the cost of shipping goods from China is increasing drastically with higher fuel prices, and so when added to increasing wage pressures it's a boost to our economy because the higher cost of imported goods makes American goods more competitive.

In other words, it slows the bleeding because American factories are becoming more economically viable.

Edited to add, the richer Chinese masses can buy more cheap American trinkets...




celticlord2112 -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 4:41:53 AM)

quote:

There isn't really another China out there to take their place, so the days of cheap stuff for Americans to buy would be over, bringing added pressures to our economy.

Yes....and no.

China's labor costs will eventually rise, as will the prices of Chinese-made goods.  As those prices go up, the attractiveness of China as a producer diminishes; if, as you say, there are no other low-cost manufacturing-oriented nations to take their place, this will encourage more domestic production of those same goods for the domestic market (Take away comparative advantage and there is no reason for any nation to transact internationally).  More production == more jobs == more demand for domestic labor.

China's rising labor costs will put a pressure on the US economy, but that pressure will be in the form of upward pressures on labor costs--and rising wages are a good thing overall.




meatcleaver -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:12:41 AM)

The test for China is not the rising cost of labour but whether they have invested their new found wealth wisely. Sooner or later their economy is going to have to change from cheap manufacturing to innovation and creating premium products for the devloped world. Apart from the west coast economy, the US economy is unspophisticated compared to most developed world economies, apart from probably Britain. The real problem for the American economy is its diminishing penetration in other developed economies. Every developed economy has had to cope with outsourcing, this is not an American affliction and blaming outsourcing as a problem of the American economy is to miss the point.




celticlord2112 -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:13:55 AM)

quote:

Apart from the west coast economy, the US economy is unspophisticated compared to most developed world economies, apart from probably Britain.

Care to elaborate on that?




meatcleaver -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:24:44 AM)

I'll see if I can find the report later when I get back but an OCED report a couple of years ago pointed out the US's weakeness in its economy, noting that apart from the west coast economy which is innovative and forward looking and more than holding its own on the Pacific rim and the world in general, the US economy needed modernizing. ie. The American economy (on the whole) wasn't forward looking and producing products the world wanted (apart from the west coast and a few minor exceptions). The report also pointed out that much American growth, like that of Britain, was based of finance, money generating money with nothing to support it. Actually, the current credit crisis which started in America, bears out the report's observations.




Termyn8or -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 7:34:17 AM)

I don't think China invested very wisely, they bought way too many Tbills and whatever US securities. It's not good for them and it's not good for us.

When you have such an enormous trade surplus with the US, it is not logical to go so deep into US securities, it's pretty much like taking a post-dated check for your goods. Tying the yuan to the dollar didn't help in the long run either. To not finance the money supply would have had effects in the market, and the market would adjust itself.

The way they helped prop up the dollar may have kept prices from dropping, but now that the dollar is dropping the prices seem to have dropped anyway didn't they. So China thought short term, as if their economic advisors were educated in the US. Now that they think like the US economists, they will be going down the tubes with us.

After the lead based toys and poison foods, it couldn't happen to nicer folk :-).

People have put forth for example, that if a barrell of oil costs this much, then we charge that much for a bushel of wheat. It seems almost childish on it's face, but in a way that would be the market adjusting itself. The problem with such ideas is that we now import food rather than export it.

The market would adjust itself if it was truly a free market, free of speculators and fiat currency manipulators.

I don't really know how to end this because I have no solution to offer. When people say we are are selling out our future, they are right. It has also been going on for too long to stop now, so what now ?

T




sophia37 -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 11:33:25 AM)

What now? We just watch and wait. But we should also learn to live with less. This needing of some much stuff is actually pretty recent.

We'll be forced to conserve, more than we'll volunteer. We just wont have the funds to buy buy buy. It'll be all we can do to have the basics. Thats my thought on it anyway.  




popeye1250 -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 1:08:30 PM)

I think everyone has missed the point.
Trade with China, GATT, NAFTA etc was engineered by *big corporations* not by the American People!
That is *coruption* plain and simple!
If the American People were "allowed" to vote on it we'd be O-U-T of those things and more tommorrow morning!
I don't know *anyone* who was in favor of "NAFTA", not one person!
The People were *never* consulted about the above things!
There is a "seperation of Church and State" in this country, we need to also have a "seperation of Big Business and State!"
Congressmen and senators need to vote on what's "good for the People", not on what's good for big companies!




UncleNasty -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 5:00:11 PM)

Right on popeye. The mantra of "Free Trade" is one most often chanted by big corporations.

Protectionism has gotten a very bad rap. 

At this point we are essentially a third world nation. We produce almost nothing. We import the vast majority of our finished goods. We export primarily raw materials. Sit at any coastal ship yard and watch what goes out and what comes in.

Uncle Nasty (I'm so mean I make medicine sick!)




Termyn8or -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:03:31 PM)

popeye, I don't mean to sound like I disagree, because I agree. Big money has taken advantage. But We The People are the market. If we had an ounce of solidarity to get our old stuff fixed or do without instead of going out and buying new, on top of having to have every new gadget that comes out, big money's world would come crashing down and we would see real change.

I know we have been taken advantage of, but we let it happen. Many years ago a buddy and I would frequent a hifi store, when Dolby HX came out I had to have a tape deck with that feature, when CD players came out I had to have one. I actually don't have one now unless you count the PC. My stereo had a $130 needle. I had to have it all. I broke the cycle, and others can as well.

The point is it is better to do it while you can, before you have to. Back then I would eat McD's and buy a $400 cassette deck, now I have had so much filet mignon I got sick of it, made real stroganoff out of it. My priorities have changed.

Break the cycle. I don't even have to work twenty hours a week to live OK, I don't need five phones, bluetooth and an ipod. I don't need these things. A car to me is transportation, nothing more. If it is comfortable great, in fact now I have the first vehicle in at least ten years in which the AC works. I could get a brand new car on a credit card, but I don't want it. I do not feed the money machine.

When the rest of the country wakes up, the bottom really will fall out. I see people use their food card, which is welfare, get their kids cookies, chips and other garbage, along with drinks I would never drink, which is also available in gallon jugs for half the price but they are too lazy to get out some cups and subsequently wash them. After spending say fifteen buck feeding their kids, they go over to the lottery counter and drop a twenty.

Thgis is what we have become, and when it comes to the world and the human condition, we are not going to get better until we deserve better.That means a change from the bottom up. That mean no more hubdred dollar dog collars when you can't pay the phone bill. No hundred thousand dollar house when it takes you three jobs to make seven hundred bucks a week. That means living within your means, and when something new comes along you don't jump into the SUV to go get one, you say "Oh that's nice".

It may mean no Xbox, no DVR, no thousand channel cable TV.

If people do not do it voluntarily, they will be doing it soon involuntarily. Of that there is no doubt.

So, it may sound as if I disagree, but I don't.

T




Raechard -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:14:29 PM)

The trick is to spend in a way that stimulates the economy but not ramp up inflation. Not all spending is bad and no one wants to live in a cave.


Besides you can spend all your life avoiding luxury items and saving up money but at the end of it what will you do with the money you save? You'd just have a hard life and end up with surplus money you don't know what to do with. It’s a difficult balance I want to die broke.




Vendaval -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 6:47:26 PM)

Hello Level,
 
You can certainly compare the situation in China with the labor abuses, environmental degradation and economic exploitation during the Industrial Revolution in the West.  Read some of Charles Dickens books or The Jungle, by Upton Sinclair.




SilverWulf -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 8:35:31 PM)

<fr>

The boom that China is experiencing will moderate within the next 10 years.  During that time consumers who are already disgruntled with buying cheap crap and having to replace it with more cheap crap will be more willing to buy new items that are of a higher quality.  There are segments of manufacturing that are still alive and well in the US.  I believe, but have no proof, that the next 10 years or so will see a resurgence of US manufacturing, making quality items.

The Chinese have seen this coming.  Compare their product quality today to what it was five years ago, it is remarkably better in many areas. (granted, there is still tons of pure crap being imported)  The battle will soon be over quality and durability, not price.




Level -> RE: The China Price (8/25/2008 8:43:49 PM)

I appreciate all the input, folks.
 
Saw something a few days ago, how the Chinese have a very specific plan, targeting all sorts of areas of product, and intend on developing their own brand names within ten years, and making those products of a much higher quality than what we see from them now.
 
Of course, it's one thing to say it, and another to do it....




meatcleaver -> RE: The China Price (8/26/2008 4:47:59 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverWulf

<fr>

The boom that China is experiencing will moderate within the next 10 years.  During that time consumers who are already disgruntled with buying cheap crap and having to replace it with more cheap crap will be more willing to buy new items that are of a higher quality.  There are segments of manufacturing that are still alive and well in the US.  I believe, but have no proof, that the next 10 years or so will see a resurgence of US manufacturing, making quality items.

The Chinese have seen this coming.  Compare their product quality today to what it was five years ago, it is remarkably better in many areas. (granted, there is still tons of pure crap being imported)  The battle will soon be over quality and durability, not price.



I remembr people calling Japanese products Jap-scrap when Japan was making in-roads into western markets with their copied products. It was also said people would get fed up of Japanese rubbish. However, Japan made a successful transition to an innovative quality market and I don't see anything to stop China doing the same. It is comforting to think China will run into the sand but I don't see any evidence of that. China has had a bigger economy than the whole of the west throughout history apart from the last couple of hundred years. They made innovative and quality products before the west even understood those concepts. The west outgrew everyone else because of the industrial revolution and the ability it gave the west to protect their own markets while controling and exploiting other people's markets and resources for themselves. The west has now to perform on an ever more level playing field and will really have to compete in future with the rest of the world, something it didn't have to do when the west had absolute dominance and it could send out gunboats to put down peoples who rebeled against their exploitation or open up new markets. There is no evidence that the west has really taken on board that today is a different world than it was. It will take more than wishful thinking for the west to regain the markets it has lost, even its home markets.




SilverMark -> RE: The China Price (8/26/2008 5:32:07 AM)

Being in an industry dominated by Chinese goods and watching the transition between the almost conceited way in which American factories producing goods treated the retailer and consumer that are now found only through the Chinese, it is no wonder that the Chinese have been so successful. I have a number of furniture and accessory stores and when I started, the American manufacturers truly dictated not only to the retailers but also to the American consumer.If I didn't project My stock levels 6 months in advance I would have no goods to sell. The Chinese made it possible for Me to carry less stock and be more proactive in changing to suit the needs of My customer base. As the American manufacturer's started loosing their base of customers they turned to China and simply became importers. Their intransigence and lack of desire to meet the needs of the very people who kept them successful cost them their businesses. An absolute shame but, so telling of the nature of American companies. The American consumer now enjoys a market that MUST serve them in a fast and efficient manner. The quality isn't the same, but the cost is so much lower and the service much faster and they buy more often. It isn't good for the economy of our nation but, it is what the consumer demands and has become accustomed to. Perhaps the Chinese economy might slow down, all economies do. The consumers will still benefit from what the Chinese have taught the rest of the world.




Alumbrado -> RE: The China Price (8/26/2008 5:41:38 AM)

The Chinese haven't taught the world anything, they have followed the European model which begat the American model,   which was embellished by the Japanese model, which was undercut by the Korean model, (who are complaining about the Vietnamese knockoffs...). 

In a few years, the Chinese military-economic model is going to upset a lot of people though. After all, 'Any place on the planet where there are Chinese people is the property of China...'




meatcleaver -> RE: The China Price (8/26/2008 5:45:29 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alumbrado

The Chinese haven't taught the world anything, they have followed the European model which begat the American model,   which was embellished by the Japanese model, which was undercut by the Korean model, (who are complaining about the Vietnamese knockoffs...). 

In a few years, the Chinese military-economic model is going to upset a lot of people though. After all, 'Any place on the planet where there are Chinese people is the property of China...'


That's just a rediculous statement, one made out of fear rather than thought. The Chinese economy is threatening the west because the west has forgotten how to compete. Well the west never learnt how to compete, it controled the world markets but that is now changing and the west is going to have to come to terms with that. It is the west that sent people all over the world claiming land and resources that wasn't theirs, not China.

Actually having done some business with China in stainless steel products, I found the quality high as that of the west and that was through independent testing of the products.

EDITED TO ADD and those products were much cheaper and the manufacturer more flexible and reliable than western companies I dealt with.




SilverMark -> RE: The China Price (8/26/2008 5:56:55 AM)

In the industry I have spent the last 25 years in, the Chinese have taught the world much. You may think that they only learned from the Japanese or the Europeans but they haven't. Neither the Europeans nor the Japanese have mastered the intricate hand made skills in a mass manufacturing setting at a reasonable price with the efficiencies of the Chinese. If they had, their goods would be widely available in our industry and they simply do not exist. Yes,manufacturing was once dominated by first Europeans, then Americans and in some areas such as automobiles the Japanese but, I only speak of the industry I work within. Do not underestimate the abilities they possess based on a topical look at industry as a whole,you would be sadly mistaken.




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