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Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 10:24:36 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Oil prices drop nearly $4 after storm threat eases
Monday August 4, 4:39 pm ET
By Stevenson Jacobs, AP Business Writer

Extracts:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices plunged to a three-month low Monday, briefly tumbling below $120 a barrel in another huge sell-off after Tropical Storm Edouard seemed less likely to disrupt oil and natural gas output in the Gulf of Mexico.

Crude's steep drop -- prices fell more than $5 at one point during the day -- dragged down other commodities from corn to copper and mimicked the big nosedives of the past three weeks, adding to growing beliefs that the oil bubble is at least temporarily deflating.

...

Still, oil market traders expressed surprise that a potential hurricane in the Gulf coupled with escalating tensions with Iran didn't send prices higher -- an almost certainty just a few weeks ago.

"Any market that really doesn't respond to seemingly bullish news is often a tip off that we're going lower," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

He and other analysts have predicted that, barring any surprises, crude could tilt toward $100 a barrel by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, retail gas prices kept falling, reflecting the continuing price-driven drop in U.S. fuel demand. Gas has fallen 5.6 percent since hitting an-all time high above $4 a gallon on July 17, but so far hasn't kept up with oil's steep descent, suggesting struggling filling stations are still saddled with gas bought when crude prices were higher.

"They still have expensive gas to feed into the system, so they're reluctant to drop prices," Ritterbusch said. "Prices never come down as fast as they go up."

Still, Monday's drop in crude was expected to help make retail gas cheaper.

Adding to the bearish sentiment around oil, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Monday proposed that the government sell 70 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves to help lower gasoline prices. He had previously opposed tapping the supplies, but said in a major energy speech that past releases from the reserve have "lowered gas prices within two weeks."

My main reason for posting this was to counter the "bad news sells" threads that bemoaned the cost of gas over the past few months.  Will it ever be as cheap as it was before?  No.  But (absent another ME war), it isn't going to stay unnaturally high, either.

A second reason for posting was to give an example of how the market will eventually take care of a lot of issues (there was a lot more in the article about how lessening consumer demand is playing a part in the lowering prices).

A third reason - which I will leave others to comment directly on - is how one of the Presidential candidates reacts to events, revealing something of his economic beliefs ... and I'm waiting to see if he claims "credit" as the prices drop towards the end of the year.

Also, finally, a question.  Will the lowering prices help the Democratic, or the Republican candidate this election?

Firm

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 10:41:01 PM   
Bethnai


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Saudi Arabia did state that they would increase production. Might that not impact this as well?

I have never read anything, in fact, every thing that I have ever read indicates that Saudi Arabia prefers Republicans.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 10:56:05 PM   
popeye1250


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Firm, there was never any "shortage."
You could buy all the gasoline you wanted, for a price.
Now all the "players" on Wall St. know that the jig is up, oil futures making money on the upside (calls) are comming to an end.
I wouldn't be surprised to see gas at $2.40- $2.80 per gal by December.
"Demand" has fallen drastically due to the price gouging.
This economy simply can't support $4 gas prices!
We saw a lot of resistance at $3.50 per gal.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 8/4/2008 10:57:10 PM >


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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 11:00:49 PM   
Vendaval


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I think that the price will continue to fluctuate depending on global politics and the hurricane season.  Now is a good time for discussion on long term goals in America's energy policies.  And if prices continue to drop, the political "heat" will ease up on both candidates to a certain extent.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 11:31:58 PM   
DomKen


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If this was really a supply crunch wouldn't the late summer vacation period and the looming labor day weekend be driving up or at least keeping prices steady. Instead we've seen a steady pullback of prices all summer. So it's not supply issues so what is going on? Were the big oil companies running futures prices up in order to make the most money possible before GWB and his laissex faire administration leave town? Is it now time to bring prices down to try and mitigate the anti GOP vote driven by the high gas prices?

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 11:38:26 PM   
TheUtopian


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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Firm, there was never any "shortage."
You could buy all the gasoline you wanted, for a price.
Now all the "players" on Wall St. know that the jig is up, oil futures making money on the upside (calls) are comming to an end.
I wouldn't be surprised to see gas at $2.40- $2.80 per gal by December.
"Demand" has fallen drastically due to the price gouging.
This economy simply can't support $4 gas prices!
We saw a lot of resistance at $3.50 per gal.




That and the fact the ''Principle's Committee'' seems to be running the State Department /Foreign policy show.

Snowcroft, Brzezinski and the rest of the crew have come out with a stern admonishment directed at the administration’s ''attack-mode'' positioning with regard to Iran.

The CFTC has no balls, and has been complicit in extra-ordinary high fuel prices. No entity should be allowed to bid up commodity futures on leverage when they have no plans of ever taking physical possession of them.

Essentially what's been allowed happen, is the American populace has been additionally taxed at the gas pump in order to re-inflate Goldman-Sachs' balance sheet.



- R

< Message edited by TheUtopian -- 8/4/2008 11:40:33 PM >


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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/4/2008 11:47:52 PM   
FirmhandKY


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Hey, UT, didn't realize you had a new profile!

I like it.  Would probably swoon if I was a femsub looking.  (but I'm not so you take your chances by relying on my judgement in that area.)

As for your post, interesting comments, but I'm not sure I understand all the references.

Firm


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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 12:29:34 AM   
TheUtopian


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Hey, UT, didn't realize you had a new profile!

I like it.  Would probably swoon if I was a femsub looking.  (but I'm not so you take your chances by relying on my judgement in that area.)

As for your post, interesting comments, but I'm not sure I understand all the references.

Firm



Thanks Firmhand ----And I'm glad you're not a woman

I'm not sure what it is you are referencing?

Possibly the CFTC? - The overlord/regulatory body of the Futures exchange.

My mentioning of Goldman-Sachs? -  A big loser in the sub-prime debacle - who's found a way to re-capitalize/re-inflate with long and short positioning as the worlds largest holder of oil futures.

The Principles committee? - Snowcroft, Gates, James Baker and Brzezinski - Cooler heads seem to prevail when our military resources are over-taxed on two...and possibly three fronts {Pakistan}





- R



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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 6:37:33 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Also, finally, a question.  Will the lowering prices help the Democratic, or the Republican candidate this election?

Firm


The answer SHOULD be that the crappy economy, including high gas prices, will favor the Democrats.    But the GOP managed to create a "solution" of offshore drilling and is hammering that the Dems are holding up the solution and keeping gas high.  Amazingly, they are getting away with it.

Obama's campaign has not met this well.  He should be running ads that show what gas cost when Bush took office and now and paint the price rise as the consequence of a GOP administration and simply ask, "Are you tired of the Republican economy yet?"  Not exactly honest, but neither is the oil drilling solution either.


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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 6:53:01 AM   
Owner59


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It was ten bucks a barrel in '98'.

~"tumbling"~ to $120 dollars........

WOW!!! 

How much luckier can we get?!?!



Yet Exxon, will still be mugging us at the gas pump,in spite of the price of crude.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With the best con men in the world, their victims who don`t even know they`ve been conned.

The 2nd best con men in the world have victims who know they`re getting conned but are to imbarassed to admit it or worse,take pride in being swindled.That would be the neo-con mindset.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 8/5/2008 7:04:39 AM >


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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 7:09:11 AM   
kdsub


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I like this extract from your link…

”Meanwhile, retail gas prices kept falling, reflecting the continuing price-driven drop in U.S. fuel demand. Gas has fallen 5.6 percent since hitting an-all time high above $4 a gallon on July 17, but so far hasn't kept up with oil's steep descent, suggesting struggling filling stations are still saddled with gas bought when crude prices were higher. They still have expensive gas to feed into the system, so they're reluctant to drop prices," Ritterbusch said. "Prices never come down as fast as they go up."

Poor struggling filling stations stuck with expensive gas...yea right the tears are falling from my eyes…They had no problem raising gas prices overnight…even though they were selling cheaper gas they purchased raking in a windfall.

Then they wonder why people are furious. It just shows we are getting screwed from top to bottom by the oil business.

Butch

< Message edited by kdsub -- 8/5/2008 7:10:34 AM >

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 7:34:12 AM   
pahunkboy


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Popeye is right.   The economy wont allow $4 a gallon.   Even $3.50.    $2.80 it can handle.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 8:09:04 AM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Also, finally, a question.  Will the lowering prices help the Democratic, or the Republican candidate this election?

Firm


The answer SHOULD be that the crappy economy, including high gas prices, will favor the Democrats.    But the GOP managed to create a "solution" of offshore drilling and is hammering that the Dems are holding up the solution and keeping gas high.  Amazingly, they are getting away with it.

Obama's campaign has not met this well.  He should be running ads that show what gas cost when Bush took office and now and paint the price rise as the consequence of a GOP administration and simply ask, "Are you tired of the Republican economy yet?"  Not exactly honest, but neither is the oil drilling solution either.



Or perhaps look a the $2 a gallon increase since Pelosi took control of congress?  We are getting screwed, plain and simple.  Why will she not allow a simple up or down vote on the proposals in the House?  I still remember the words as the election results came in... we will fight to lower the price of gas...  What has she done? Blocked votes on proposals by her own party, and the bipartisan ones. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F10alN28eyw

Let's face it though, since Bush got rid of the executive moratorium oil prices have dropped by $20 a barrel, if congress was to lift their moratorium we could easily see another $20 or more drop.  Pelosi is playing the lightning rod here, and pointing her finger at the Sith lords in the White House, she is sure that she will win reelection, so it doesn't matter what she does.  Her hand will be forced by the end of Sept though, as the moratorium expires.  This will be an interesting situation to watch.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 8:30:11 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY

Also, finally, a question.  Will the lowering prices help the Democratic, or the Republican candidate this election?

Firm


The answer SHOULD be that the crappy economy, including high gas prices, will favor the Democrats.    But the GOP managed to create a "solution" of offshore drilling and is hammering that the Dems are holding up the solution and keeping gas high.  Amazingly, they are getting away with it.

Obama's campaign has not met this well.  He should be running ads that show what gas cost when Bush took office and now and paint the price rise as the consequence of a GOP administration and simply ask, "Are you tired of the Republican economy yet?"  Not exactly honest, but neither is the oil drilling solution either.



Or perhaps look a the $2 a gallon increase since Pelosi took control of congress?  We are getting screwed, plain and simple.  Why will she not allow a simple up or down vote on the proposals in the House?  I still remember the words as the election results came in... we will fight to lower the price of gas...  What has she done? Blocked votes on proposals by her own party, and the bipartisan ones. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F10alN28eyw

Let's face it though, since Bush got rid of the executive moratorium oil prices have dropped by $20 a barrel, if congress was to lift their moratorium we could easily see another $20 or more drop.  Pelosi is playing the lightning rod here, and pointing her finger at the Sith lords in the White House, she is sure that she will win reelection, so it doesn't matter what she does.  Her hand will be forced by the end of Sept though, as the moratorium expires.  This will be an interesting situation to watch.

One more time since none of the right wingers ever answer the question, if drilling is so important why isn't anything being done in the NPR-A? The oil companies have leases on the land and the oil deposits are proven to exist, not true of ANWR and the proposed off shore site.

BTW if a majoirty of House members were demanding votes on this stuff they would happen. If necessary a bipartisan coalition could simply call a vote for a new speaker and put someone else in the chair. The reality is the Democrats in the House are opposed to new drilling for very good reasons but don't want to give the GOP a vote to campaign on. Why is it that when the GOP is in the minority they want their way on everything but when they were in the majority they abused the minority in ways that far exceed this trivial stuff? What was good for the goose is good for the gander.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 8:46:16 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
The reality is the Democrats in the House are opposed to new drilling for very good reasons but don't want to give the GOP a vote to campaign on.


I'm glad to see that you realize that in this issue, the Democrats are putting partisan politics above the national welfare.

It's something I see on a regular basis, occasionally on both sides of the aisle, but from my jaundiced viewpoint, it seems the Dems do it more often, with greater hypocrisy than the Repubs.

Regardless of which side does it, it's despicable.

Firm

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 8:49:07 AM   
TieNTeas


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


One more time since none of the right wingers ever answer the question, if drilling is so important why isn't anything being done in the NPR-A? The oil companies have leases on the land and the oil deposits are proven to exist, not true of ANWR and the proposed off shore site.

BTW if a majoirty of House members were demanding votes on this stuff they would happen. If necessary a bipartisan coalition could simply call a vote for a new speaker and put someone else in the chair. The reality is the Democrats in the House are opposed to new drilling for very good reasons but don't want to give the GOP a vote to campaign on. Why is it that when the GOP is in the minority they want their way on everything but when they were in the majority they abused the minority in ways that far exceed this trivial stuff? What was good for the goose is good for the gander.

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2008/07/10/alaskas-northern-coastal-plain-npr-a-prudhoe-bay-and-anwr/

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 9:37:39 AM   
Thadius


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Why is drilling so important domestically?  If you think sending $200 billion overseas is good policy, you can stand on that position.  If you think being at the mercy of foreign oil production is a good thing, please continue to stand on that position.  Drilling alone is not going to solve the crisis we are in.  Opening up the strategic oil supply isn't going to make the problem go away either.  Let's look at that suggestion a bit,  what price is that oil going to be sold on the market?  In order to do anything for the price of gas at the pump, it is going to have to be at a discounted rate, which is just giving more handouts to the big oil companies, is it not?  Okay, so we release 70 million barrels, what happens the next time prices go up, or when OPEC and Ven, decide to reduce production to bring prices back up, do we release another 70 million?  How about if Iran is telling the truth about shutting down the straight with their new weapon?

Simply put, it is going to take a combination of the various proposals to get us out of this mess, while we work on conservation and technology that will allow us to get off of oil.  There is no one right answer it is going to take all of the leeches in Washington to come together for a policy that will fix the fundamental problems with the system... which unfortunately is unlikely.

There is drilling going on up in Alaska... but don't make it sound like they can drill year round up there.

Just one more thing, if you think American oil companies are going to ruin the environment, how do you feel about this one?
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/news/economy/oil_cuba/index.htm 

Meanwhile we get to suffer from a lack of anything being done for at least another 5 weeks while congress enjoys its vacation.

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 10:19:09 AM   
FirmhandKY


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FR:


Oil falls as low as $118 on demand concerns


Tuesday August 5, 11:43 am ET
By Stevenson Jacobs, AP Busines Writer

Oil prices decline as low as $118 on concerns that US slowdown is hurting fuel demand

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices kept falling Tuesday, sinking as low as $118 a barrel on growing concerns that a U.S. economic slowdown and high energy costs are curbing consumer demand for gasoline and other petroleum products.


...

A day after plunging as much as $5 a barrel in a dramatic sell-off, crude continued its downward trend Tuesday as traders sold oil contracts on the belief that prices are still too high in relation to demand and have further room to fall.

...

"The market psychology has finally shifted," said Stephen Schork, an analyst and trader in Villanova, Pa., adding that "$4-a-gallon gasoline has clearly killed demand."

...

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 3.55 cents to $3.3146 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 4.67 cents to $2.9535 a gallon.


Notice the futures costs of a gallon of gasoline.

Firm



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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 10:41:29 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TieNTeas

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


One more time since none of the right wingers ever answer the question, if drilling is so important why isn't anything being done in the NPR-A? The oil companies have leases on the land and the oil deposits are proven to exist, not true of ANWR and the proposed off shore site.

BTW if a majoirty of House members were demanding votes on this stuff they would happen. If necessary a bipartisan coalition could simply call a vote for a new speaker and put someone else in the chair. The reality is the Democrats in the House are opposed to new drilling for very good reasons but don't want to give the GOP a vote to campaign on. Why is it that when the GOP is in the minority they want their way on everything but when they were in the majority they abused the minority in ways that far exceed this trivial stuff? What was good for the goose is good for the gander.

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2008/07/10/alaskas-northern-coastal-plain-npr-a-prudhoe-bay-and-anwr/


Nice handwave.

Go find the proof of the size of the reserve in the 1002-A area of ANWR. Don't be surprised when you don't find anything. The estimate that web page gives is a complete guess based on surface geology. There has never been any test wells in ANWR to prove the reserve. There has been in the NPR-A and the estimate is much more reliable.

As to the lawsuits they were over the central area of the reserve which contains an ecologically valuable lake. Nothing prevents the rest of NPR-A from being drilled and if you think lawsuits delayed that project, they didn't, what do you expect if anyone ever opens ANWR for drilling? 

I wouldn't trust a websight run by a flack for Exxon.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/orgfactsheet.php?id=115

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RE: Crude's steep drop - 8/5/2008 1:33:58 PM   
pahunkboy


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Pelosi is a disappointment.

the whole left -right tug,  is silly.

What about a strict constitutionist?

I can decide much better then the left ot the right as to what is best for me.

Instead of bailing out wall street- we should be shoring up the US dollar.

Instead of tax debit and credits- we should be scrapping the IRS.

Instead on wondering about Iran, where "they":- GE which owns NBC sells weapons TO IRAN;

to many enitities have their hand in the collcetive till.



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