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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:07:18 PM   
christine1


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Joined: 12/15/2007
From: i'm headed to HIM...
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pinksugarsub


Gris: what exactly happened today that was different from any other day?
 

pinksugarsub


well, a big pink font got changed to a big purple font.  that was new.

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:08:59 PM   
slvemike4u


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quote:

ORIGINAL: hizgeorgiapeach

You would think so, Level, but I have to consider the fact that I will consistantly loose money - money which isn't Mine, it's my dad's retirement which is paying a huge chunk of his nursing home and medical costs - until the market starts to pull out, at least 2 to 5 years down the road.   If I leave it in stocks for the next year, at the current rate and with a deepening recession/imminent depression, it will lose so much value that it won't last TO start climbing again, since it IS being used to keep dad's bills paid since his stroke. 
 
If it were money set aside for MY retirement, which won't be for another 20 years (presuming civilization lasts that long lol) I would leave it in there to wait it out.  Since it's dad's retirement, and my Larger obligation to him is to ensure that it actually lasts through the 18 to 24 months that he Might still have alive... it's a different story.  Some might argue that if I want to ensure myself an inheritance, I'll leave it in to ride... but I have an obligation to him (both ethical and Legal) to see to it that his bills remain as caught up as possible until he no longer has any assets that Can be used to keep him out of debt.  Oh so fun, when your parents stop being your parents and become your pseudo children...
You will surely get your reward on the other side...as far as how much fun it is think of the alterative losing them early sucks too ....take my word for it,what i would give to have the pleasure of seeing to my fathers needs instead of what i got ...he never met my child

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:12:37 PM   
Griswold


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

When things dip, isn't that the time to buy?



Yes...it's also true that the best time to plant a fruit tree was 5 years ago...and the next best time is...today.

But, there are also times when nothing grows.

Right now is a time to conserve cash, pay down debt (when it has no discernable effect on your ability to pay immediate bills).

I hate to keep using parables, but they're somewhat effective...and so...it's also a great time to consider putting away some seed.

We're about to go through some incredibly weird shit.  I don't know that the best economic minds on the planet have the capacity to put all this stuff together...and in my very short 50 years...with a very limited sense of finance, I have to say, I'm seeing some unusually strong head winds aiming towards caution.

More so than I have in the last 3 years....and I've been watching for it the entire time.

Didn't come. 

Didn't come again.

I was wondering for a while if someone re-invented gravity.

And then it came.  Slowly.

It's almost here.  Whether in hours, days, weeks or months....there was enough news for those that were listening...that we hit the recession today.

If you've already been living through it, or you were thinking..."WTF are they talking about....there's no recession...that's a media thing"....the rest of the country caught up with you today.

(It's not a good time to buy...anything....there'll be a vastly improved deal tomorrow).

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:16:53 PM   
Griswold


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u
You will surely get your reward on the other side...as far as how much fun it is think of the alterative losing them early sucks too ....take my word for it,what i would give to have the pleasure of seeing to my fathers needs instead of what i got ...he never met my child


What an absolutely spectacular post.




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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:20:59 PM   
Griswold


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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u.... You will surely get your reward on the other side...as far as how much fun it is think of the alterative losing them early sucks too ....take my word for it,what i would give to have the pleasure of seeing to my fathers needs instead of what i got ...he never met my child


And, I'd like to add, while I know you didn't intend it...you have a truly remarkable ability to put things in perspective.

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:24:03 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		        Oh, for christsake, Gris, you act like cycles in an economy are the end of the world.  Guess what?  The world doesn't end.  It changes.  Is there a nasty patch coming?  Of course.  Truth be told, we have two entire generations (X and Y) that have had it mostly soft and easy, and could do with some toughening up anyway.  (Mostly.  That's a qualifier for those my age and down who know the real stink of poverty and bad times.  We're a minority.)

      I'm in a pretty recession/depression-proof line of work these days, but I don't worry much about getting another/second job if I have to.  I look at how many people who have jobs are totally incompetent and figure I'll just take one away from a loser who thinks a good excuse is the same as showing up on time.

      This country simply goes too deep in our reserves of social energy to stay down very long, and shedding a few pounds will do us a lot of good.

     Composites.

< Message edited by TheHeretic -- 6/6/2008 7:25:13 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 26
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:26:28 PM   
hizgeorgiapeach


Posts: 1672
Status: offline 		Level, there are days that I would like nothing so much as to be able to step aside and hand daddy back the headaches I inadvertantly inherited when he had his stroke.
 
I love him dearly, but honestly my life woulda been a heckofalot easier if the stroke had killed him outright - there wouldn't have been medical bills to contend with, I wouldn't be having to watch the strong man who raised me deteriorate so rapidly that it often feels like it's a massive change from one day to the next, and there would be no further potential for troublemaking from my idiot brother.   It's been nearly 2 years since dad's stroke, and I'm Still playing catch up with the organizational Hell he left behind him. He had his money spread out in tiny bits and pieces all over the place.  And of course because of everyone these days likes to play CYA games, it's been a nightmare even With a poa to get everyone on the same track and talking to Me about the financial stuff rather than insisting on talking to dad. 

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:35:08 PM   
Level


Posts: 25145
Joined: 3/3/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

When things dip, isn't that the time to buy?



Yes...it's also true that the best time to plant a fruit tree was 5 years ago...and the next best time is...today.

But, there are also times when nothing grows.

Right now is a time to conserve cash, pay down debt (when it has no discernable effect on your ability to pay immediate bills).

I hate to keep using parables, but they're somewhat effective...and so...it's also a great time to consider putting away some seed.

We're about to go through some incredibly weird shit.  I don't know that the best economic minds on the planet have the capacity to put all this stuff together...and in my very short 50 years...with a very limited sense of finance, I have to say, I'm seeing some unusually strong head winds aiming towards caution.

More so than I have in the last 3 years....and I've been watching for it the entire time.

Didn't come. 

Didn't come again.

I was wondering for a while if someone re-invented gravity.

And then it came.  Slowly.

It's almost here.  Whether in hours, days, weeks or months....there was enough news for those that were listening...that we hit the recession today.

If you've already been living through it, or you were thinking..."WTF are they talking about....there's no recession...that's a media thing"....the rest of the country caught up with you today.

(It's not a good time to buy...anything....there'll be a vastly improved deal tomorrow).



Interesting thoughts, Gris.

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Skinned up knees and salty lips
Let go it's harder holding on
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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:37:37 PM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

       Oh, for christsake, Gris, you act like cycles in an economy are the end of the world.  Guess what?  The world doesn't end.  It changes.  Is there a nasty patch coming?  Of course.  Truth be told, we have two entire generations (X and Y) that have had it mostly soft and easy, and could do with some toughening up anyway.  (Mostly.  That's a qualifier for those my age and down who know the real stink of poverty and bad times.  We're a minority.)

     I'm in a pretty recession/depression-proof line of work these days, but I don't worry much about getting another/second job if I have to.  I look at how many people who have jobs are totally incompetent and figure I'll just take one away from a loser who thinks a good excuse is the same as showing up on time.

     This country simply goes too deep in our reserves of social energy to stay down very long, and shedding a few pounds will do us a lot of good.

    Composites.


I never said, nor suggested, that the business cycle had been repealed.  Everyone in history that's alluded to that before....has never shown up, even in preliminary High School economics text books.

Nor did I suggest that all people will feel this cycle...clearly, based on your your above statements, you'll do fine.  Others may not.

And you may very well take a job from someone else (as you describe above) during this period...but it doesn't have to be that way...and for those that are paying attention...they can insure it.

(And guess what Heretic?  You don't even have to be entirely arrogant, or off the charts egocentric to understand that).

I'm just thinking outloud.....

(It happens).





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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:39:22 PM   
petdave


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

We'd still have bacon and eggs, but would most of us have any sort of retirement?
 
Of course, you're right that it is so much illusion.


Well, the people who are intelligent enough to see through the illusion will have a retirement.

The people who aren't will be looking at a stack of 401(k) account statements and wondering how they'll taste with a bit of pepper.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it. If you don't own it, don't depend on it for anything.

Bonds i have in surplus; however, the violet wand is not mine, nor are most of the whips. Shoot me a message if you're looking for anything in particular. i probably have it.

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Profile   Post #: 30
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:41:53 PM   
Griswold


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Joined: 2/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: hizgeorgiapeach

Level, there are days that I would like nothing so much as to be able to step aside and hand daddy back the headaches I inadvertantly inherited when he had his stroke.
 
I love him dearly, but honestly my life woulda been a heckofalot easier if the stroke had killed him outright - there wouldn't have been medical bills to contend with, I wouldn't be having to watch the strong man who raised me deteriorate so rapidly that it often feels like it's a massive change from one day to the next, and there would be no further potential for troublemaking from my idiot brother.   It's been nearly 2 years since dad's stroke, and I'm Still playing catch up with the organizational Hell he left behind him. He had his money spread out in tiny bits and pieces all over the place.  And of course because of everyone these days likes to play CYA games, it's been a nightmare even With a poa to get everyone on the same track and talking to Me about the financial stuff rather than insisting on talking to dad. 


Wow.

(Wish I could hug you right now)

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:43:59 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		................................................................................
.............................................................................
.............................................................................
quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

(And guess what Heretic?  You don't even have to be entirely arrogant, or off the charts egocentric to understand that).




          No, Gris, you don't.  But it's more fun that way. 

_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


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Profile   Post #: 32
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 7:47:32 PM   
hizgeorgiapeach


Posts: 1672
Status: offline 		Mike, I sat with dad at my mom's bedside up at the hospital when she died.  She was my best friend as well as my mother.  It was easier, in several ways, for her to be there one minute and gone the next. Fungal Pnumonia - one day she was getting better, the next she was on a breathing machine and the doctor was informing us that if they unplugged, she Would die period.  We gave the doctors 72 hours to come up with a solution and get her off the machines.  At the end of that time, we waited by her bedside for the final few breaths she managed.  No lingering, no..... changing to become a completely different person than the one I'd known and loved my whole life.  One day there, the next gone, and with that comes both Closure and the opportunity to Mourn. 
 
Such has not been the case with daddy.  I've had to watch over the past 2 years, while the body lingers but little of the mind remains intact and coherant, while his personality became that of someone that I don't know any more.  We can't hold the intelligent, often Spirited, discussions on everything ranging from my participation in BDSM to politics to science to religion and philosphy that we used to hold on an almost daily basis.  I've had to watch the man who planned for his retirement, knew how to handle money well, and was always on top of things become someone who frequently displays no comprehension of what day of the week it is, much less how much anything costs or where the money has to come from to keep the bills paid.  I would gladly trade all that for closure and the ability to feel like I can mourn the loss of the man I knew growing up.
 
The financial stuff I'm dealing with currently - including and perhaps especially dad's retirement investments - are things that he and mom were doing prior to her death.  The power of attorney got set up specifically Because of her death, so that there would be a clear chain of command when something happened to him.  Not if - When.  He's had emphasymia for years now, and prior to mom getting sick that last time they both thought that she would outlive him.  He started making sure that I was kept in the loop about the investments, what assets there were both what and where, and things like that when I moved back to Oklahoma 3 years ago.  He had hoped (as had I) that I would already have taken over much of the day to day routine of keeping track of it all when something happened to him - so that I wouldn't have the confusion of simply Finding some of it.  Best laid plans, kinda thing.

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Essential Scentsations

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 8:03:33 PM   
Griswold


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Joined: 2/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

................................................................................
.............................................................................
.............................................................................
quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

(And guess what Heretic?  You don't even have to be entirely arrogant, or off the charts egocentric to understand that).




         No, Gris, you don't.  But it's more fun that way. 


(Well, for once, I truly can't debate you).

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Profile   Post #: 34
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 8:45:23 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pinksugarsub

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

Anyone who reads history knows the old adage about the shoeshine boy telling the guy in the chair...."today's a good day to buy stocks".

Today we all got our warning bell.

The recession began today.

Anyone that knows me personally, knows I follow this game fairly closely....moreover, anyone that follows history knows....today you got the warning bell.

Get your warm sweaters out....we're in for a very bumpy ride.

(Very).




Gris, I agree.
Joe Kennedy (The Bootlegger, anti semite, Nazi sympathiser, and criminal and patriarch of the Kennedy Crime Family) got out of stocks in May of 1929 when a Cab Driver started giving him advice on which stocks to buy.
And in Washington, D.C. "NERO" is fiddling while gasoline prices are skyrocketing.
Even Ed McMann's going to lose his house!
Warren Buffet said two weeks ago that we are already in a reccession and it will last longer and be deeper than most people think.
I think he was holding back a lot on us!
We're headed down a mountain road with no brakes and it ain't going to be good.


Gris: what exactly happened today that was different from any other day?
 
Popeye:  You make some fine points, but Man, You sure do subscribe to some pretty 'out there' conspiracy theories.  Ever post any links to back up some of Your claims?  Just wondering.
 
pinksugarsub


Pink, I'm done doing college research papers. (i.b.i.d)
"Links? You want "links?"
I can give you plenty of links! I could make up a post with numerous links that would take you two hours to read. Is that what you really want?
I thought it was common knowledge that Joe Kennedy was a Nazi sympathiser, that's why he was recalled from the Court of St. James by F.D.R. to avoid,.. "further embarrassment."
FDR "knew" we'd be going to war with Germany and,... Joe Kennedy didn't.
You can't have Ambassadors going around cavorting with the enemy now can you?
My problem is that I read *so much* that I'd have to have a couple of those yellow legal pads next to me to record the "links" to all the articles I read.
But, I'm retired and have much more time to do that than people who need to work for a living.
Tonight I'm just in a frisky mood and being a "wiseguy."
Seeing if I can "shock" people.

And Gris, I think you're right about June 6th, 2008.
It'll probably be put together with March 20th, 2000.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 6/6/2008 8:52:53 PM >

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RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 9:09:48 PM   
patwi


Posts: 296
Joined: 6/24/2007
Status: offline 		Boy this just makes me....nervous. I'm going through a divorce, living with a diabtetic, elderly, blind mother who's got a nasty form of cancer, working a very low paying job after I picked up and left the husband and moved two hours back home...*sighs*

I've got a mind to start looking for a new job, one which pays better as this one was just supposed to be temporary, but I'm wondering - will I even find a new job?

It's food for thought I suppose.

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Profile   Post #: 36
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 9:43:18 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: hizgeorgiapeach

You would think so, Level, but I have to consider the fact that I will consistantly loose money - money which isn't Mine, it's my dad's retirement which is paying a huge chunk of his nursing home and medical costs - until the market starts to pull out, at least 2 to 5 years down the road.   If I leave it in stocks for the next year, at the current rate and with a deepening recession/imminent depression, it will lose so much value that it won't last TO start climbing again, since it IS being used to keep dad's bills paid since his stroke. 
 
If it were money set aside for MY retirement, which won't be for another 20 years (presuming civilization lasts that long lol) I would leave it in there to wait it out.  Since it's dad's retirement, and my Larger obligation to him is to ensure that it actually lasts through the 18 to 24 months that he Might still have alive... it's a different story.  Some might argue that if I want to ensure myself an inheritance, I'll leave it in to ride... but I have an obligation to him (both ethical and Legal) to see to it that his bills remain as caught up as possible until he no longer has any assets that Can be used to keep him out of debt.  Oh so fun, when your parents stop being your parents and become your pseudo children...


Georgiapeach, I know what you're going through.
My mother got sick in '91 and lingered for 18 months.
She had the assets to remain at home.
I was the Guardian, hospice people, nurses, two "clean-up" ladies, I cooked for everyone, dealt with lawyer, doctors, nurses, stockbroker, accountant.
My 4 siblings were useless! They had their own lives and had no time to help out.
She died on Dec 21st '93.
The very next day they found my stepfather dead in his condo.
Double funeral.
I of course had to make the funeral and church arrangements.
I was the Executor for *both* estates.
Probate, more stockbroker, accountant, lawyers, tax guy.
One brother stole $30k from her; ATM card, court and restraining order.
Phone calls from my siblings, "where's my money!"
I had to handle both estates at the same time and was under the probate gun which had to be settled in 9 months in Mass.
It went on for two years after they died.
Bagloads and boxloads of paperwork!
I never had the time to even  greive.
I had to sell a house and condo.
Get various property appraised.
Two of my brothers I don't talk to anymore.
I hope they both get hit by a truck and die a painfull death.
I won't be at their funerals.
No good , lazy theiving bastards.
Fun being the responsable one isn't it?
Are you the eldest too?

P.S. *HUGS*

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 6/6/2008 9:47:18 PM >

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Profile   Post #: 37
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/6/2008 11:14:33 PM   
pinksugarsub


Posts: 1224
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

quote:

ORIGINAL: pinksugarsub
Gris: what exactly happened today that was different from any other day?
 
Popeye:  You make some fine points, but Man, You sure do subscribe to some pretty 'out there' conspiracy theories.  Ever post any links to back up some of Your claims?  Just wondering.
 
pinksugarsub


Oil, of course, as most news agencies have covered, jumped 10 bucks a barrel (or thereabouts) today.

After having dropped a like amount this same week, and with many pundits exclaiming "Big Oil is DONE!!!!".

The largest dollar increase in one day....and the 2nd largest % amount in one day, in history.

Unemployment, while jumping only 49,000 units, not so unusual in a completely different economy, jumped from 5.1% (or maybe it was 5.2)%....to 5.5%.

Effectively 10%...in an unusually short period.

Recent reports for housing, while fluctuating (in the news anyways) all over the map....concluding in one week that things are improving....in the next ...."the sky is falling...the sky is falling!!!!!"....(and in some cases it is).

In others, it's not.  Decidedly.

But where it is...it's pretty awful...and where it's not...it's already knocking at the door.

As to Popeye...on occasion, I'm astounded at the depth of his thoughts....and on other occasions, I wonder if he was dropped on his head...several times.

(Before he was 5).

And then possibly...several times during his early and late teens.

(I suspect that'll continue).





Okay Gris; so the only event that occured specially today was the increase in oil prices?   Am i getting that right?
 
The other economic indicators You listed were also discussed in the research i just did on the current American economy.  It seems You are well-infomed about economics.
 
i barely passed macro-economics back in the early '70's and haven't studied it since, apart from some tax matters.
 
i tip my hat You for being able to master such arcane and difficult material.
 
Thanks again.
 
pinksugarsub 

_____________________________





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Profile   Post #: 38
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/7/2008 7:35:26 AM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pinksugarsub

Okay Gris; so the only event that occured specially today was the increase in oil prices?   Am i getting that right?
 
The other economic indicators You listed were also discussed in the research i just did on the current American economy.  It seems You are well-infomed about economics.
 
i barely passed macro-economics back in the early '70's and haven't studied it since, apart from some tax matters.
 
i tip my hat You for being able to master such arcane and difficult material.
 
Thanks again.
 
pinksugarsub 


It wasn't just the oil prices, in fact, had that been the only thing that occurred yesterday, it'd just be another shitty day at the gas pumps.

It was a combination of things, and none of them mean that starting yesterday the whole world went to hell in a handbasket...but, like a roller coaster, yesterday had enough varying economic events that it culminated in an effective tipping point. 

I've been discussing this topic with other economists (I'm not of that group...they are) and the conclusion that I and they have been able to come up with based on all the specifics available was that, after accounting for all the housing and credit issues, condensing this all down in to a few short sentences, the final tipping point that's visible to most Americans would be....Christmas sales this year would come to be some of the lowest on record, which would cause all the headline writers to start screaming "Depression!!!!" (which it won't be), and a lot of people will get scared, begin to retrench even more than they already had, and the  more visible aspect of the recession would largely start showing itself around late Spring, early Summer 2009.

All the leading economic indicators were, up until yesterday, showing signs of going in both directions...meaning...we might escape this recession altogether, and then in equal shares, we might not.

They weren't giving out consistent data.

Yesterday all the data came in and lined up exactly as I and they had been predicting, enough such that, with very few exceptions, from this point forward, it was finally clear that all upcoming data will now follow the same trend, that being that we are not going to avoid a recession, and the data still point exactly as I'd been reading it...that the visible beginnings for most people will in fact be the Christmas retail sales, and that's where the general population will start seeing a recession.

So, it wasn't just oil...that's been bouncing around like a basketball for a long time.  That one data set isn't enough to paint a picture, and the events that occurred yesterday also don't foretell the end of the world...it just clarified that from this point forward, the ride gets bumpier, that with very few exceptions the ride won't be smooth for a fairly long period, and ultimately, those that prepare for it effectively will have only a less bumpy ride.

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Profile   Post #: 39
RE: The shoeshine boy spoke today... - 6/7/2008 8:04:52 AM   
hizgeorgiapeach


Posts: 1672
Status: offline 		Shit no I'm not the eldest, Popeye!  My nincompoop brother is 16 months older than me Physically - developmentally, well, he never seems to have made it past about 16 which is when  he became deeply immersed in the drug culture.  The fact that both our parents were Only Children makes it Somewhat easier - after all, there's no aunts/uncles/cousins screaming "where's my share" - but that also means that there's literally on one else TO take on any of the responcibility.
 
At this point, I'm looking at pulling Everything out of the market, and turning it into real properties.  It was something that dad and I had discussed as a potential prior to the stroke, and now it looks even more practical.  Buy some land outside of town that's either minimally "improved" or completely unimproved, and then start working quietly to get a small place built there that's completely self sufficient. Gold and Silver bullion.  That sort of thing.

_____________________________

Rhi
Light travels faster than sound, which is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.
Essential Scentsations

(in reply to popeye1250)
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