Oil reserve (Full Version)

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GreedyTop -> Oil reserve (5/13/2008 10:53:23 AM)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080513/ap_on_go_co/congress_energy



azropedntied -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:27:05 PM)

I dont get that who reserve thing either , yes i did see the 70's shortages  yet when the reserve is 97% full why were they buying at all .



Rule -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:30:21 PM)

Preparing for a war against Iran?



pahunkboy -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:32:20 PM)

-- $30 a barrel is the cost of it.

it is a good idea- BUT commodity specualtion reform needs to happen.

BTW  we have a 57 day supply of oil in the reserve, which is locate in Louisiana



slaveboyforyou -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:38:21 PM)

We have it just in case.  When I say that, you have to imagine the worst case scenario.  A major catostrophe like a nuclear attack, a huge natural disaster that shuts things down.  You can dream up hundreds of scenarios, and it's always a good idea to be prepared.  Shutting it down and diverting 70,000 barrels of oil won't make a dent in the current price of fuel.  It a political stunt in an election year. 



cyberdude611 -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:50:47 PM)

Yeah, this is a joke and just shows you how clueless Washington is on this issue.

We cannot control anything with the oil market since we are not a player. We are a consumer of oil. We have to import 12 million barrels EVERY DAY just to keep going.

Now if we would start producing our own energy and back off that imported oil, prices would begin to fall. And no, ethanol is not the solution since take takes oil to produce it and it actually causes a net loss of energy. The only advantage of ethanol is that it is clearner. Otherwise there is no advantage to it whatsoever.

The fastest way to drop oil prices....drill it and refine it right here in the USA. Even do what the Nazis did by converting coal into oil. You have any idea how much coal we have in this country? It's everywhere. We have PLENTY of energy in America. We have oil in the plains. We have oil in Alaska. There are billions of barrels in the Canadian oil sands. They just recently found a ton of oil under the Gulf of Mexico. We have no shortage of energy. It's just that no state, politician, or environmental interest group will allow us to use it. So we are going to have to be slaves to OPEC and pay the high prices.

Sorry, but it truely is that simple.



DomKen -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 12:54:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

We have it just in case.  When I say that, you have to imagine the worst case scenario.  A major catostrophe like a nuclear attack, a huge natural disaster that shuts things down.  You can dream up hundreds of scenarios, and it's always a good idea to be prepared.  Shutting it down and diverting 70,000 barrels of oil won't make a dent in the current price of fuel.  It a political stunt in an election year. 

Are you aware that in most events that disrupt the gas supply having a massive reserve underground won't help at all?

The only scenario that the strategic oil reserve protects against is a short term disruption in delivery of crude. IOW OPEC shutting us off again.

Natural or man made disasters are unlikely to shut down all the oil fields everywhere or prevent all supertankers from coming to the US. Most such events would hit the major refineries and having billions of barrels of crude sitting around won't do jack to help that situation.

It's well established that oil isn't in short supply, OPEC isn't increasing output and consumption has hardly been affected by the price spike so we should be seeing shortages somewhere if it was a supply problem. We know we have plenty of excess refinery capacity, the LA refineries were offline for months after Katrina and the whole country still had gas. Therefore releasing the strategic reserve should stabilize prices while making a nice profit for the feds which could be used to reduce thedebt unless of course GWB and cronies know that this is a manipulated situation intended to benefit the oil companies, Exxon did just post the largest single quarter profit ever, at our expense.

If a Democrat is POTUS next January I predict a precipitous drop in oil and gas prices.



pahunkboy -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 1:22:16 PM)

iran and venezuala are 2 of opec-ys.

we learned from the oil embargo of the 70s ...hmm.

$7.00 a gallon is the point where people cut back. [i read]





slaveboyforyou -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 1:34:45 PM)

quote:

Are you aware that in most events that disrupt the gas supply having a massive reserve underground won't help at all?

The only scenario that the strategic oil reserve protects against is a short term disruption in delivery of crude. IOW OPEC shutting us off again.

Natural or man made disasters are unlikely to shut down all the oil fields everywhere or prevent all supertankers from coming to the US. Most such events would hit the major refineries and having billions of barrels of crude sitting around won't do jack to help that situation.

It's well established that oil isn't in short supply, OPEC isn't increasing output and consumption has hardly been affected by the price spike so we should be seeing shortages somewhere if it was a supply problem. We know we have plenty of excess refinery capacity, the LA refineries were offline for months after Katrina and the whole country still had gas. Therefore releasing the strategic reserve should stabilize prices while making a nice profit for the feds which could be used to reduce thedebt unless of course GWB and cronies know that this is a manipulated situation intended to benefit the oil companies, Exxon did just post the largest single quarter profit ever, at our expense.

If a Democrat is POTUS next January I predict a precipitous drop in oil and gas prices.


Why wouldn't it help?  You'll have to explain to me how having a fuel reserve would not be beneficial when something, anything happens that cuts supplies off.  You don't think there are disaster scenarios that could do that?  Damn, use your imagination.  I am not arguing that oil companies are not making out like bandits.  Of course they are, but to say the supply of oil to this country isn't diminishing is just foolish.  It's diminishing because China and India are buying up huge amounts of it. 

Oil is not in short supply...yet.  It will be soon, and everyone knows it.  Our own oil production peaked in the 70's, and there are strong suspicions that the Saudis oil production recently peaked.  OPEC isn't producing more oil, because they are running out.  The gravy train is coming to an end, and we better start figuring something out instead of applying band aids to the problem.  I'm all for alternative energy, but the technology simply isn't efficient enough yet.  It's not going to be for awhile.  We have to start using our own natural resources, and that means drilling in places that were once off limits.  The Democrats have held up progress on that front, and they are going to continue holding up progress.  You are living in a dream world if you think gas prices are going to come down with them in charge. 



azropedntied -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 1:43:58 PM)

I get why we have it , what i do not get is why we are still buying when it clearly states  we are almost full at 97% , what i also do not get is why we are buying  from others at all instead of using our own backyard brew .



cyberdude611 -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 1:54:55 PM)

We are NOT running out of oil nor will we in our lifetimes.



Rule -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 1:55:09 PM)

Simple, if the West was not buying the oil, prices would fall, Africa and other poor areas could buy cheap oil and start to develop. So the purpose is to keep the poor vulnerable and poor.



philosophy -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 2:00:24 PM)

FR

...the problem is less to do with the alternative energy technologies available, and more to do with those organising such things having an inability to shift paradigms. There is no one tech that will replace oil, instead there are lots. If we get away from the idea that energy has to be centrally generated then we start to make immediate inroads into the problem. Imagine every house with a few solar cells on the roof, they wont get that house off the grid but they'll reduce that houses dependence on it. Use all those local techs to generate a little power here and there. Insulate every house, put windmills up wherever possible, extend the lifetime of the oil we currently have.....of course, that would take profit away from some if we decentralised power production, but thats another argument......



slaveboyforyou -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 2:02:15 PM)

quote:

We are NOT running out of oil nor will we in our lifetimes.


Oil is a finite resource, so by definition we are running out of it.  We won't run completely out of it in our lifetime, but it's going to get to the point where it's not feasible to go after the meager amounts that are left.  We are not decreasing our oil use, and other countries with huge populations are increasing their use.  Do you see where that might be a problem?  We are either going to have to drastically change our lifestyles or look for other sources of energy. 



philosophy -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 2:06:16 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

We are either going to have to drastically change our lifestyles or look for other sources of energy. 


......actually when you think of all the materials that can be made out of oil, then merely burning the damn stuff for energy seems wasteful.....there are alternatives for creating energy, not so many for plastics and the like.....



slaveboyforyou -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 2:12:07 PM)

quote:

......actually when you think of all the materials that can be made out of oil, then merely burning the damn stuff for energy seems wasteful.....there are alternatives for creating energy, not so many for plastics and the like.....


Oh, I agree.  Asphalt, plastics, many medicines, paraffin wax we use to package food, etc.  We have already had some issues here with the price of oil and road building.  We have a lot or roads that are just horrible, but we can't fix them because it's too expensive right now. 



cyberdude611 -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 3:43:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

quote:

We are NOT running out of oil nor will we in our lifetimes.


Oil is a finite resource, so by definition we are running out of it.  We won't run completely out of it in our lifetime, but it's going to get to the point where it's not feasible to go after the meager amounts that are left.  We are not decreasing our oil use, and other countries with huge populations are increasing their use.  Do you see where that might be a problem?  We are either going to have to drastically change our lifestyles or look for other sources of energy. 


We may run out 100-150 years...maybe. But by then we will almost certainly be using other methods of fuel, energy, and transportation.



LadyEllen -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 3:47:39 PM)

I believe youre right Phil - micro generation is where its at. With a silent compressed air engine in every home plus solar.

Worcester Bosch are running ads here at the moment for what appears to be a device to get hot water out of the ground - here in the Midlands of the UK (not known for hot springs!).

E



DomKen -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 4:05:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: slaveboyforyou

quote:

Are you aware that in most events that disrupt the gas supply having a massive reserve underground won't help at all?

The only scenario that the strategic oil reserve protects against is a short term disruption in delivery of crude. IOW OPEC shutting us off again.

Natural or man made disasters are unlikely to shut down all the oil fields everywhere or prevent all supertankers from coming to the US. Most such events would hit the major refineries and having billions of barrels of crude sitting around won't do jack to help that situation.

It's well established that oil isn't in short supply, OPEC isn't increasing output and consumption has hardly been affected by the price spike so we should be seeing shortages somewhere if it was a supply problem. We know we have plenty of excess refinery capacity, the LA refineries were offline for months after Katrina and the whole country still had gas. Therefore releasing the strategic reserve should stabilize prices while making a nice profit for the feds which could be used to reduce thedebt unless of course GWB and cronies know that this is a manipulated situation intended to benefit the oil companies, Exxon did just post the largest single quarter profit ever, at our expense.

If a Democrat is POTUS next January I predict a precipitous drop in oil and gas prices.


Why wouldn't it help?  You'll have to explain to me how having a fuel reserve would not be beneficial when something, anything happens that cuts supplies off.  You don't think there are disaster scenarios that could do that?  Damn, use your imagination.
 
It's not a fuel rserve. There isn't a gallon of gas in the reserve. It's all crude. That means if our refineries are the issue this won't help. So once more what kind of natural or man made disaster stops only a third of our daily oil import from arriving here, the reserve can't be emptied faster than 4.4 million barrels per day while we normally import 12 million per day.

This would protect us from an OPEC embargo but nothing else.
quote:

I am not arguing that oil companies are not making out like bandits.  Of course they are, but to say the supply of oil to this country isn't diminishing is just foolish.  It's diminishing because China and India are buying up huge amounts of it. 

If this were true then, by the basics of suply and demand,  there should be somebody somewhere doing without. With prices having gone from 30 to 125 a barrel that should indicate a very tight supply so where is this massive decrease in consumption occuring?

quote:

Oil is not in short supply...yet.  It will be soon, and everyone knows it.  Our own oil production peaked in the 70's, and there are strong suspicions that the Saudis oil production recently peaked.  OPEC isn't producing more oil, because they are running out.  The gravy train is coming to an end, and we better start figuring something out instead of applying band aids to the problem.  I'm all for alternative energy, but the technology simply isn't efficient enough yet.  It's not going to be for awhile.  We have to start using our own natural resources, and that means drilling in places that were once off limits.  The Democrats have held up progress on that front, and they are going to continue holding up progress.  You are living in a dream world if you think gas prices are going to come down with them in charge. 

Do you know how much the best estimates place in ANWAR? 16 billion barrels. Sounds like a lot right. Until you factor in that we import 12 million barrels a day so we're only talking about 4 years of oil independence. Which certainly wouldn't be worthwhile building all the necessary infrastructure. More than likely this wouldn't pump more than 1 to 2 million barrels a day which wouldn't moderate oil prices in the short term or long term.

The NPR-A might have a larger unproven reserve but might be even more environmentally sensitive and is definitely proven more unpopular with the public in both Alaska and nationwide.

The various deep water fields in the Gulf of Mexico and fields off the west coast are substantially smaller and usually of very low quality crude. 

So what drilling is really worth exploiting when compared to the environmental damage that would definitely occur?



asyouwish72 -> RE: Oil reserve (5/13/2008 4:28:54 PM)

quote:

If a Democrat is POTUS next January I predict a precipitous drop in oil and gas prices.


This is likely true, but the reasoning behind it is (IMHO) somewhat different that what you have suggested. There has been no mention in this discussion so far of the erosion of the value of the US Dollar, however, this fact is fairly central to the current price of oil. The Republican administration of the last 8 years has been happy to operate at staggering deficits (which is the only way they can manage their ridiculous upper-income tax breaks while fighting debt-financed discretionary wars). Predictably, this has driven the value of the dollar sharply lower- to the tune of nearly 50% vs the Euro since 2001. Oil is denominated in dollars, so we see this loss reflected in the price when competing against foreign buyers.

Additionally, oil futures provide a great hedge against further currency-based losses. That's a recipe for speculation, and part of the reason that we are seeing prices that are, quite frankly, disconnected from the physical reality of supply and demand.

It stands to reason that a Democratic administration will be more fiscally responsible. Clinton I certainly was... and really it would be very difficult not to be better than Bush/Cheney. They have set the bar absurdly low. As such, the change in psychology relating to currency valuation will likely serve to tame oil prices to at least some degree. The problem of increasing foreign consumption will still be with us (and will require long-term changes in our energy mix if we don't want a major drag on our economy) but the bottom line is, oil in 2001 dollars would be less than $75 per barrel as of right now.



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