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Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 9:45:10 PM

cyberdude611

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Scientists say a big quake will hit California between now and 2037. Scientists say they are 99.7% certain it will happen and it will be at least 6.7 magnitude. San Francisco has a 62% chance of being struck. LA has a 67% chance. LA has about a 37% chance of a magnitude 8.0 or larger within 30 years.

Scientists say it is a wake-up call for California government agencies and residents to put together a disaster plan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080415/ap_on_sc/california_quakes;_ylt=AnyzXCNbx92j645RvHggpwes0NUE

I was watching the Discovery Channel and they were talking about what would happen if San Francisco or Los Angeles is hit by a earthquake with the same intensity as the 1906 San Fran quake. And the damage would be catastrophic. We are talking about many times worse than what Katrina did to New Orleans. People may literally be on their own for over a week before emergency services get to them.

It's a ticking time bomb.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 9:50:53 PM

CalifChick

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I'm looking forward to being on oceanfront property after half of the state drops into the ocean too. Right now I'm a couple of hours from the coast.

Cali

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 9:53:12 PM

faerytattoodgirl

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29 yrs from now i wont be alive so it wont bother me one bit!

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 10:10:18 PM

TheHeretic

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Pretty mild prediction actually. Right up there with 'someone will be elected President in November.' Anybody who lives here without some preparations/plans is an idiot. So much of it is simple and easy, too.

When it happens, it will be bad. Incidentally, the known fault most likely to impact me lets go about every 150 years. Last big one (and it was BIG) was 1857

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 10:19:18 PM

Shawn1066

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A much worse quake is due to hit in my area sometime in the next 100 years. The four most powerful Earthquakes in the recorded history of the continental United States hit in 1811/12, I believe it was. It wasn't in California...it was the New Madrid Quake. You don't hear about it because the area wasn't populated at the time much at all, and thus there weren't heavy casualties.

It hit the Southeastern United States. Because of the geography and such, it affects a MUCH wider area than quakes in California. Not to mention most of the US' oil/natural gas pipelines run right through Memphis, which will likely be leveled.

Oh, and we don't build or prepare for Earthquakes around here very much at all. It has the potential to be much, much, much worse than any quake that could hit California. Just because of how big the zone is.

DV's Fox

Edited to add: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Earthquake

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

< Message edited by Shawn1066 -- 4/14/2008 10:32:06 PM >

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 10:22:18 PM

popeye1250

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Sounds like the holy rollers who tell you that "God's comming back" but they never know *when* for some reason.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 10:46:35 PM

TheHeretic

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     Better than the global-warming alarmists who want to tell you exactly what is going to happen, working from a hell of a lot less data.

    The real nightmare scenario for LA hasn't been done on Discovery Channel, that I'm aware of. That would be a domino effect among the smaller faults perpendicular to the San Andreas, along the length of the San Gabriel Mountains. Say 6-10 Northridge size events over the course of a few days.

    It's funny how many people drive right past things like this (click here to view) every day, and never give a thought to the kinds of forces that did it.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 10:52:52 PM

Termyn8or

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Willow they said BY 2037. It could happen tomorrow.

First of all the San Andreas fault is not the only one in the world. In other words there really could be oceanfront property in Arizona. Could. And those mountains out west were not built by a guy named Big John.

Something pushed in to make those mountains, and California is at the edge. You never know what is under there and just like California seems to be losing it's support, most likely because it is constantly aggravated by ocean currents etc., how long will it be before it happens again ?

Awhile back I saw a map that was projected for the future for this continent. It depicted a wide rift running through the west, somewhat like the Bahas are seperated but quite a bit larger. A larger rift and a larger landmass. Now if it is supposed at that time California is already gone, this literally means there is a possibility of oceanfront property in Arizona.

What the map depicted was basically that there would be a split running up through the US approximately north of the western Mexico border. It does make some sense.

I am not a geologist, but when I get input I analyze it and consider it. I try to understand it and I saw something a while back on PBS I think that intrigued me. As it relates to this point, the thing to realize that our land, all of it, is floating. All you have to do is go dig up a clump of dirt and put it in a bucket of water to see what is going to happen. As you watch a piece of the clump of dirt fall off the edge into the water, you don't hear a thing. But when it happens on a large scale you will.

And there is such a thing as continental drift. Now realize the scale. Move your hand in the bathtub, doesn't move as easily as in air right ? Well consider moving against the entire Pacific Ocean. Even an inch a year could mean fantastic pressures.

For many years they have been saying that California is going to get a big one. Do you believe them ? And if you do, do you think it will be in your lifetime ? They say 2037, now how the hell do you calculate that ? How do they know it won't be 2137 ? When you are dealing with plate techtonics 100 years is not a long time.

That's about all I have to say right now that would be meaningful, so I am going to get cynical. I know y'all love me for that.

Califchick, Merc, Beth, anyone in California, when they stop giving 30 year mortgages there, it might might be a sign that it is time to move. Your land might still be your land but you might need a scuba suit to see it. Believe me, money is going to make the best decision they can. I mean when all the big companies move out, take the hint.

T

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/14/2008 11:04:14 PM

outlier

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Worth mentioning here that the Richter magnitude scale is logarithmic.

Each expression represents 10 times the previous one. So going
up 2 numbers is going up 10 X 10 or 100. So an 8 is 100 times
a 6. And a 9 is 1000 times a 6. 10 X 10 = 100 X 10 = 1000.

Outlier

< Message edited by outlier -- 4/14/2008 11:08:30 PM >

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 5:07:03 AM

SugarMyChurro

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I predict the sun will go nova and eventually contract back down to a small black hole. It's gravity will become so fierce it will suck in the rest of the universe with it into a singularity (there's a nice ambiguous term). This dimension as we know it will cease to exist.

I am not at liberty to disclose precisely when this will happen, but it will be between now and the end.

You had better know where your towel is.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 6:49:26 AM

Mercnbeth

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~ Fast Reply ~

From the source document...

quote:

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

I love this! I wonder how much in tax dollars were spent on this project? We will experience an earthquake-someday. It will rain - maybe. The sun will come out - tomorrow. Is this the next study produced by the global warming priests, I mean 'scientists'?

But the question is why? Similar to the 'global warming' religion the motivation is money. The article discloses the smoking gun...

quote:

The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

Oh so the result will be, because of the impending risk of doom, higher insurance costs and more bureaucracy created to inspect buildings and sit around making emergency evacuation plans. As if any huge earthquake in SoCal will result in most of the buildings still standing, an orderly calm, peaceful, evacuation based upon a 'plan'. Here's a plan - have a shot gun and a couple of cases of shells at the ready.

Meanwhile, I'm going to submit a grant request to study how you will get wet when diving into a pool - eventually regardless of the height of the diving board.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 6:52:53 AM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

anyone in California, when they stop giving 30 year mortgages there, it might might be a sign that it is time to move.

A better indicator would be when they want $380 a month, with a $50,000 deductible, for earthquake insurance on a house more than 25 miles from any known fault. Oh wait. That's right freakin' now. Never mind.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 7:02:47 AM

kittinSol

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Shit happens.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 7:05:28 AM

Real0ne

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Yeh they have been predicting that since the first day they figured out it was on a fault, at least as long as I have been alive anyway.

Yeh matter of fact I was sort of hoping global warming was true for the same reason, so that I could have some nice lake front property too...

< Message edited by Real0ne -- 4/15/2008 7:06:40 AM >

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 8:17:03 AM

sub4hire

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I waited for that quake for 25 years in California. I wanted to live on an island. Guess what? It never happened.

I was in a meeting with some of my employees 30 miles from the epicenter when the Northridge quake hit.
I was close enough to the Big Bear quakes that I actually had a piece of wood breaking away from the house in my attic. Yet it still never happened. 6.7 magnitude is nothing you know?
Get into the 8's and 9's then you're looking at a quake.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 10:37:55 AM

pahunkboy

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One may or may not feel a quake. many do no damage.

we knew Katrina would one day wipe out that area....

think of it as a jobs program. every area of the country has SOMETHING. know your boogieman , and have emrgency plans.

I for one- would not want to be in long lines for supplies like they do in Florida.

we assume electic, water, gas, food will always be at our finger tips... we also assume we can go on polluting forever.

I doubt the typical Californian is anymore alarmed NOW then yesderday. as they say, "yeah, yeah,yeah"

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 11:29:41 AM

celticlord2112

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shawn1066
Oh, and we don't build or prepare for Earthquakes around here very much at all. It has the potential to be much, much, much worse than any quake that could hit California. Just because of how big the zone is.
p://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone[/link]

Given the soil differences, even California-style earthquake-resilient building codes would not help much. The New Madrid zone straddles the Missippi river, and the ground has much more unconsolidated sediment than is typically found along the San Andreas fault in California.

Even a 7.9 magnitude quake (which is the presumed magnitude of the New Madrid Quake) would be apocalyptic in those soil conditions.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 2:40:04 PM

slaveboyforyou

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*Fast Response*

Yeah, they say the same thing about the New Madrid fault here. It's going to be devestating because we don't build anything up to earthyquake standards, blah, blah, blah. I have my looting bag ready to go.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 6:42:09 PM

lighthearted

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

I doubt the typical Californian is anymore alarmed NOW then yesderday. as they say, "yeah, yeah,yeah"

you are correct.

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RE: Scientists guarantee big California quake - 4/15/2008 6:54:04 PM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: sub4hire

6.7 magnitude is nothing you know?
Get into the 8's and 9's then you're looking at a quake.

       Up to about a 5.5, they are kind of cool. I stood right on top of a 5.9 once, on the second story of a two-story built in 1947 and designed to last for five years. That was no fun at all, but I walked down the staircase afterwards.

      A high 6 is enough to really fuck up a city.

       An 8.0? A 9.0? That's getting biblical in the level of destruction. There is no such thing as preparation for something like that in a modern urban area. Get up to a 10, (depending on which particular scale you are using) and that's when the whole planet does an impression of a Rubik's Cube.

       The Ft. Tejon Quake of 1857 was estimated at a 7.9, and the ground ruptured along 350 miles of Southern CA. We had ourselves a 7.3 about 15 years ago, but it was nice enough to happen way out in Manson country, with pretty minimal damage.

      My old plan involved getting the hell out of the area, without touching a freeway for the first 300 miles, but with the new job, I might be coming home to a tent after work. Plenty of canned goods in my garage, and you just can't have too much bottled water.

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