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Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 3:07:41 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline 		I think Senator Clinton will prevail today in Texas and Ohio. It seems the inflammatory stories, planted or just good investigating journalism, have gained traction in mainstream media and Senator Obama's momentum has, at the moment, slowed. However, if she does win it doesn't have a major impact on the final delegate count result. According to a number of sources, unless she wins in a landslide in both TX and OH, she will not have and can not get to the necessary number of delegates to put her over the top and gain the nomination. According to the link contained in the story quoted,  delegate calculator , neither Senator Clinton or Senator Obama will reach the magic 2,025 number.

At that point, entering into the picture 'SUPER-DELEGATE'. I never knew about 'Super-delegates'. What I found out was if you like the Electoral College you'll LOVE 'Super-delegates'. A super-delegate is the electoral college on steroids. Basically, these people have the option to vote as they please. Near as I can ascertain, 'Super-delegates' are people owed favors at the state level, are big contributors, or big political 'names'. For instance, President William J. Clinton is a 'superdelegate'; wonder if he can be wooed to Senator Obama?

It would be likely if Senator Obama does not come out of today's primaries as a winner in at least one of the majore States, TX or OH, the nomination will be in the hands of the 'superdelegates'.

quote:

Even if Hillary Clinton wins tonight's primaries, she still has an increasingly difficult road ahead. Going into this evening's results, Clinton needs an average margin of victory of 16 points in every remaining primary to tie Obama's pledged delegate total. If Clinton wins by fewer than 16 points, then her job only gets tougher going forward. According to our delegate calculator, two 10-point wins in Ohio and Texas would inflate her margin-of-victory target to 20 points, which will be a hard margin to achieve once Obama visits Pennsylvania and North Carolina (the two richest states remaining, delegate-wise).

But there is some good news for Hillary: If she wins tonight, pledged delegates definitely won't decide this contest. With two Clinton victories, neither candidate will be able to reach 2,025 delegates—the number needed for a majority—without the help of superdelegates. (Obama had a slim chance of doing so coming into the evening.) Currently, Clinton has a 44-super-delegate lead, according to CNN, but Tom Brokaw is reporting that Obama's campaign may be set to announce a 50-superdelegate envoy this week. That would make both candidates about even in super-delegates, which would make Clinton's climb even tougher. If she averaged a 10-point win in every state going forward (including tonight's festivities), and if Obama pulls even with her in the superdelegate count this week, she would need to attract 57 more super-delegates than Obama by the convention. Considering she has a net loss of superdelegates over the last few weeks, that's going to take an even bigger turnaround than a comeback at the polls.
Source: http://slate.com/id/2185278/ 


Assuming the projections hold per the quoted article, the nominee can be a person who didn't win the popular vote and generated less elected delegates.

Whether you back Senator Obama, or Senator Clinton, how do you feel about the prospect of the nomination being decided by a hand full or power brokers? Again assuming the 'math' sited in the article is accurate, would you prefer the loser of the elected delegate count conceed the nomination or have the 'superdelegates' fight it out in smoky back-rooms at the convention? concede

I'm hoping that this will be received as a neutral question to generate some opinions and not viewed as trying to instigate dissension within the 'rank & file'. 
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 5:06:37 PM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

I'm hoping that this will be received as a neutral question to generate some opinions and not viewed as trying to instigate
dissension within the 'rank & file'. 



Well, I personally think the electoral college is something which made sense 200 years ago, and no sense today.  We could do a direct vote system in this country, but instead we use this antiquated nonsense from the days of horse drawn buggys.

On the other hand, I tend to think the reason it is not changed is because it puts electoral power in the hands of the citizens of the United States, which is exactly where entrenched political bureaucracies do not wish it to be.

Districting made sense 100 years ago, when it took time and energy to get the votes together and count them, but now the information can be passed almost instantaneously, yet we hold on to this ridiculous districting nonsense.

My issue with winner take all states is this is not representative of the population.  Get rid of districts, add up the number of people who live in a state, if the state has 220 delegates, and candidate A wins 60% of the vote, Candidate A should get 60% of the delegates.  The Republican redistricting under George W. Bush in Texas assured that the majority of delegates would come from districts that were largely Republican, whereas the Democrats were lumped into districts to vote against each other. 

My issue with the Democratic national convention's approach is that it is undemocratic.  If my district votes for a delegate to go to Washington to vote for candidate A, that person should be compelled to vote for candidate A.  Doing otherwise in a privately held enterprise would be considered breach of contract.  This superdelegate nonsense is reminiscent of smoke filled rooms and back alley corruption.

Sinergy

p.s.  I am not sure I agree with what you posted about delegate numbers, but we will know tomorrow.


_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 7:55:45 PM   
caitlyn


Posts: 3473
Joined: 12/22/2004
Status: offline 		A primary is less election, and more selection process. We should keep in mind that caucus states don't really represent the will of the voter either.
 
The election style primary, as it relates to a general election, isn't really accurate. The rules are quite different. Candidates in the primary can offer rides to the polls, food, daycare, they can even deliver pre-stamped, early voting ballots to people's homes in some states.
 
I feel the role of the supers is important in the selection of the candidate for the party they represent, which is a key point. It might be fashionable to consider them people that are owed favors, but a more accurate way to look at them, is people that are highly active in the party ... party VIP's if you will.
 
If Senator Clinton does win Texas and Ohio, my guess would be that she will also win in Pennsylvania ... and the supers will decide this thing. They are going to have a tough job. Senator Obama will have more deligates, and is certainly an impressive candidate ... but will have won a lot of caucus states, will have been beaten in most large states, and will have won a lot of states that the Republicans will probably in in the general election.

_____________________________

I wish I could buy back ...
the woman you stole.

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 8:03:09 PM   
cyberdude611


Posts: 2596
Joined: 5/7/2006
Status: offline 		It will come down to the convention...

Clinton is not going to give up....She'll take this to the convention and try to convince the superdelegates to go her way... 

(in reply to caitlyn)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 10:27:29 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline 		Well, it looks like the first part of this was accurate. Next stop Pennsylvania.
quote:

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton scored comeback primary wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island Tuesday night, denting Barack Obama's delegate lead in a riveting Democratic presidential race.
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/campaign_rdp 


< Message edited by Mercnbeth -- 3/4/2008 10:32:57 PM >

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 10:33:12 PM   
Smith117


Posts: 1447
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Well, it looks like the first part of this was accurate. Next stop Pennsylvania.
quote:

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton scored comeback primary wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island Tuesday night, denting Barack Obama's delegate lead in a riveting Democratic presidential race.



Too bad she's projected to win those three states, yet STILL is almost a full 100 delegates behind Obama.



President Obama will do good things for America.

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 10:44:15 PM   
celticlord2112


Posts: 5732
Status: offline 		The electoral college system makes sense for one simple reason. It compels the successful Presidential candidate to campaign in every state. By balancing electoral strength across the country, it serves to ensure the President figures out how to lead the entire nation, not just California, New York, and Texas.

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/4/2008 10:54:37 PM   
celticlord2112


Posts: 5732
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Smith117

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Well, it looks like the first part of this was accurate. Next stop Pennsylvania.
quote:

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton scored comeback primary wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island Tuesday night, denting Barack Obama's delegate lead in a riveting Democratic presidential race.



Too bad she's projected to win those three states, yet STILL is almost a full 100 delegates behind Obama.



President Obama will do good things for America.



Interestingly enough, when Obama was "winning" state after state, that was all he crowed about. Now, after "losing", he points to delegate counts.

Hillary's showing in Texas and Ohio is particularly troublesome for Obama, because not only does it deny him a reasonable chance of winning enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, it also represents a break in his oft-celebrated momentum.

More telling is the sharp drop in Obama's poll numbers in the days leading up to the Texas primary. I do not speculate as to why his numbers dropped, but they do suggest that his popularity may have peaked, and if that proves to be the case, his slim delegate lead will not last going into the convention.

This year's Democratic convention could be as chaotic and turbulent at 1968.....

_____________________________



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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 6:57:12 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline 		Updating the scorecard:
quote:

So, what's next?

1. If Clinton and Obama basically tie in the remaining 12 contests, Obama would need 164 superdelegates to come his way to put him over the magic number of 2,024

2.  Assuming no currently committed superdelegates switched and no uncommitted superdelegates jumped off the fence. . .

Clinton would need to win 59% of the delegates in the remaining 12 contests in order to overtake Sen. Obama's delegate lede.

If the upcoming 611 delegates at stake split 59/41 for Clinton -- 360 would go to Clinton and 251 would go to Obama -- netting Sen. Clinton 109 delegates. . . which would be enough to overcome Obama's current 106 delegate lead.

3.  There are 611 delegates up for grabs in the remaining 12 contests.

ABC News' current delegate estimate has Obama at 1,555.

That means he would need to win 77% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024 to secure the nomination. That is highly unlikely due to the proportional delegate allocation rules in the Democratic Party.

Clinton would need to win 94% of all the remaining pledged delegates to hit the magic number of 2,024.  (ABC News currently has her at 1449.)

So, clearly they both are going to be relying on superdelegates to secure the nomination. 

Stay tuned...
Source: http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/03/clinton-wins-ob.html

(in reply to celticlord2112)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 7:56:14 AM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline 		http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080305/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_analysis

Yahoo news thinks differently.  It basically states that Hillary Clinton will not be able to overcome Barak Obama's delegate lead no matter what she does.

The joy of the non-winner-take-all primaries.

Sinergy

edited to point out that winning Texas 51% to 49% and Ohio 54% to 46% is not really a slam dunk.


< Message edited by Sinergy -- 3/5/2008 7:57:07 AM >

_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 8:36:50 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
quote:

edited to point out that winning Texas 51% to 49% and Ohio 54% to 46% is not really a slam dunk


Really, well I guess you can hang your hat on me not including a margin of victory as "slam dunk"; but the "slam dunk was a reference of confidence in her victory - not the margin. Yet, contrasted with a predicted Senator Obama win Senator Clinton's clear victory was more accurate. 

Feel free to 'spin'?.

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 8:42:22 AM   
meticulousgirl


Posts: 969
Joined: 2/20/2007
Status: offline 		GO HILLARY

~meticulous~

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 8:43:33 AM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Feel free to 'spin'?.



No, you are spinning just fine.

Sinergy


_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 11:10:02 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		...today i un-subscribed form hillarys mailing list. 

How dare  PA governor Rendell promise to "deliver Pennsylvania" to hillary.  my vote is not for sale.

I am not happy that she wants to sue at the drop of a hat. that is a huge turn off and brings back Florida 2000!

You shouldnt be ekected per winning a lawsuit- that is obsurd.  The litigation implies she has a "right" to be president.  What about my rights?  I dont buy it that it is "her turn".  bull shit.  this is a job interview.  not who can sue.

the best person for the job.  not the "im sick and tired" old bag! 

Obama is the better candidate.

WTF on the lazy azz clevelanders  who did not vote.

if i have anything to say about it.   I for one dont hand Hillary Pennsylvania.

The talk about union endorsements...what unions??  nothing is union anymore.

meanwhile  a conservative is advising mccain to do something about the budget eating entitlements.  claims earmarks are "only" 1% of the budget. but entitlements need to be riegned in.

hillary is like a guest at a cocktail party that never goes home.    the 3 am phone call is -probaly monica. [lewisnski]

i am beginning not to care...in that why vote? it hardly mattters.

the speeches are so worn out= they ought to skip to q and a.  these speeched are recycled from 30 yrs ago.

dont forget Michigan and FLorida --is side wrecked due to moving the primary up.  this means hillary will sue.  even Carl Rove said there is no easy answer on this.

but to litigate --is a huge turn off to me. 

(in reply to Sinergy)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 11:18:16 AM   
caitlyn


Posts: 3473
Joined: 12/22/2004
Status: offline 		If by chance you do wish to spin Merc, you could point out how much money Senator Obama spent in Texas and Ohio, only to come up short in each race.

_____________________________

I wish I could buy back ...
the woman you stole.

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 11:35:37 AM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

If by chance you do wish to spin Merc, you could point out how much money Senator Obama spent in Texas and Ohio, only to come up short in each race.

Spin what? The last person I will vote for is the Republican and PAC Amnesty candidate, Senator McCain?

This was a pragmatic post regarding numbers, with a prediction of what would occur yesterday and prognostication about what is happening today and most likely will happen until September. 'Spin'? Nope - I stand behind what said which is  'prima facie' accurate; so far. When/If conditions change, I'll say I was wrong.

Meanwhile....

What's up with being asked twice in the same morning to research information making another person's point? What's up with that? Has the expectation of  having a 'nanny' taking care of any and all needs created a mentality totally lacking personal initiative?

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 11:39:11 AM   
caitlyn


Posts: 3473
Joined: 12/22/2004
Status: offline 		It was a joke Merc. I guess it was a bad one. Nobody ever accused me of being overly funny.

_____________________________

I wish I could buy back ...
the woman you stole.

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 2:32:06 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

It was a joke Merc. I guess it was a bad one. Nobody ever accused me of being overly funny.


Caitlyn,
Second stage of senility is not recognizing a joke. I forget what the first stage was...

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 2:38:36 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		......there are blow jobs.    and "super blow jobs"


See?

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RE: Nomination Math and the 'SUPER-DELEGATE' - 3/5/2008 11:17:57 PM   
Sinergy


Posts: 9383
Joined: 4/26/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

quote:

ORIGINAL: caitlyn

It was a joke Merc. I guess it was a bad one. Nobody ever accused me of being overly funny.


Caitlyn,
Second stage of senility is not recognizing a joke. I forget what the first stage was...


In men, Merc, the mind is the second thing to go.

Condolences...

Sinergy


_____________________________

"There is a fine line between clever and stupid"
David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle


(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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