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Interesting trend - 9/19/2007 7:02:41 PM

MasterDoc1

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I posted this back on AUgust 26:
Gallup Polls: http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/gallup-national-polls.html
Ron Paul: February : 0% March 1% , April 2%, August 3%
See the trend?

And now for the follow-up: September 4%
See the trend YET?
ANd as I discussed, there are very solid scientific reasons to view these numbers as a dramatic understement of Ron Paul's support:

(8/26): And as a physician I know that "science" can mislead. These "scientific" surveys are done among the following group: registered republicans who voted in a prior election and have home phones.
That excludes all the disenchanted liberals who are flogging to his banner, all the independents who were too burnt out with crooked politicians to vote, all his supporters who were too young to vote previously and don't want to get drafted to fight and everyone who has given up "home phones" and gone purely cellular.

My judgment remains that he has around a 10% chance of winning the GOP nomination and a 10% chance of winning the presidency even WITHOUT the GOP nomination: How?

(8/26) Interestingly enough though his BEST chance to win the presidency may be if you (was referring to luckydog1) get your way and Guliani wins the nomination.
Around one-third of republicans say they will NEVER vote for ANY "pro-choice" candidate. While that is the one issue on which I DISAGREE with Paul, he can take that third of the republicans, scortch Hilary for her undeniable pro-Iraq war voting record and run against politics as usual to win a three way race.
You have to realize that almost HALF of the eligible voters didn't bother to vote in the last presidential election because they thought both candidates liars and crooks.
Many of those will vote for an honest, principled candidate (Paul) if they can.

On election night 2000 (BEFORE ANY votes had come in) I was working. My coworker asked me "who is going to win" and I answered: It will all come down to whether the Gore campaign can get every single old Jew in Florida to come out and vote for "Hadassah's husband".
By the next day I was famous at work for the accuracy of that prediction... and I guess Gore missed just a few hundred of them.

FOr those who don't understand and/or remember: Gore's VP mate in 2000 was Joe Lieberman and his wife had the ULTIMATE Jewish woman's name: Hadassah.

.

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RE: Interesting trend - 9/20/2007 9:25:50 AM

Casie

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Yeah I defintally think that alot of people don't take into account alot of people have went to cell phones. It's not just young people whom have went to cell phones either, even my mom got rid of her land line. And that there are Ron Paul supporters from all ends of the political spectrum. There is just no way to call any poll scientific. I guess we will just all have to wait and see what happens as the campains roll on!

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RE: Interesting trend - 9/20/2007 11:37:03 AM

luckydog1

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Master doc, yet in reality the last presidential election had the highest turnout in decades.

We had some of the "disenchanted liberals" on here pretending to support him. They don't. They desperatly want him to dilute the right vote, as Nadar did to the left in 00, and Perot did to the right in 92. Nothing wrong with them trying, it is to be expected. Not seeing through it, tsk tsk.

Perhaps RP will create a ground swell of new voters and sweep to power. I seriously doubt it though.

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RE: Interesting trend - 9/20/2007 1:33:33 PM

MasterDoc1

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Luckydog1:
DESPITE a relatively high turnout there were millions of people who didn't vote.
Since we are only talking a PRIMARY (at least for now) it is hard to see how stirring the pot by liberals would help them. I doubt they would vote in the primary as republicans and thereby give up the right to vote for the liberal of their choice. Doesn't make sense.
My primary points were to make you realize that there are VERY strong "scientific" reasons why the Ron Paul primary vote would be greatly underrepresented.
ANd to point out a clear trend in what even the (understated) poll numbers show.
Ron Paul is getting already more than half the polling numbers as Romney (4% vs 7%) despite getting around 1% of his media attention.
By the way; I left out the link to the latest Gallup poll.
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28702

Remember "Dewey beats Truman"?
Any contemporary poll that doesn't include cellphones is just as invalid as the poll that predicted a landslide for Dewey. And that means ALL of them, I believe.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 8:28:12 AM

MasterDoc1

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Reread my post above and then:

Gallup poll for October has him at 5%.
More upward trend.
And of course he has JUST started to spend from his ever increasing campaign coffers.
Watch him on Leno this Tuesday night.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 10:26:17 AM

HaveRopeWillBind

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Doc,

As the trend shows he is only gaining 1% per month, with 12 months to go that would give him 17%, hardly the numbers for a landslide victory. If he is going to have a serious chance he is going to have to do something different or Gulliani is going to have to really stumble.

As an independant voter I like some of what he has to say, but don't agree with him on all. Frankly I'm just waiting for the nomination process to shake itself out before I decide to whom my vote will go.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 10:36:25 AM

MasterDoc1

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HaveRope:
As I stated previously there are several good scientific reasons why the polls are likely to GREATLY understate his support in particular:
1) they only poll land-lines. Paul supporters are MUCH more likely to have abandoned landlines and gone to exclusively cell-phones.
2) they only poll people who vited Republican in prior elections. This ignores the big surge he is getting from people newly registered as Republican.

He also has raised MILLIONS and spent nary a dime. Once his advertising starts his numbers will move up. These things tend to reach a take-off and then rocket upwards.
By January when the primary in Michigan takes place you will start to see the surge.
Consider voting for him as he is the only viable candidate who will end the war in Iraq (as part of a global re-assessment of our interventionalist foreign policy).

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 10:40:25 AM

Real0ne

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HaveRopeWillBind

Doc,

As the trend shows he is only gaining 1% per month, with 12 months to go that would give him 17%, hardly the numbers for a landslide victory. If he is going to have a serious chance he is going to have to do something different or Gulliani is going to have to really stumble.

As an independant voter I like some of what he has to say, but don't agree with him on all. Frankly I'm just waiting for the nomination process to shake itself out before I decide to whom my vote will go.

Ever brew beer?

Thats how thesae sorts of things start. They start slower then avalanche as time goes on and people start thinking about his message as compared to the others.
.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 10:58:59 AM

luckydog1

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One would think that since the evil gov is using cell phones to track and monitor the population as part of its facist nefarious plans to make us all slaves, Paul supporters would avoid them. More than one of his feverent supporters on here have exposed the real purpose for cell phones in these forums. I guess they would avoid land lines also, but they seem to be all over the net, so who knows, maybe even they don't take their nonsense seriously.

Ultimatley they will have to register as Repubilcans in order to vote in the primary (at least in my state, perhaps it is different in other states). And as much as I would love to be able to say that the number of Registered republicans has doubled in the past 6 months, it hasn't.

We shall see though

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 11:13:08 AM

HaveRopeWillBind

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Real & Doc,

Yes, I have brewed beer, but so far there is a steady rate in this trend Doc cites. In the brewing process the rate of fermentation is not a steady line but an increasingly upward curve, much as the way an atomic reaction works in a bomb.

As I said, for Paul to get the nomination he is going to have to do something different. Spending more money would be something different. But his best chance is really going to be keeping himself out of controversey and letting the other candidates self-destruct. The problem is that with so many states moving up their primaries things could all be decided before he gets enough momentum to win. We are only 2 months from the first primary voting and it's conceivable that in about 10 weeks the whole thing could already be sewn up by one of the current leaders. That doesn't give him much chance for the slow build to popularity strategy that worked for Carter and Clinton.

It's true that the current polling process doesn't account for cell phones, however enough homes still retain land-line phones that current polling procedures are likely still valid within the 6% to 10% error rate they usually cite. All polling, after all, is based on a relatively small sampling of the total population.

I honestly don't know what the effect of new Republican voters would be but I doubt it is a big factor since the current administration's policies have lost more voters for the Republicans than have been brought in. It's possible a large portion of those brought in might be Paul supporters, but since we aren't talking about huge numbers here it's unlikely they will be able to raise the tide enough to float his boat into the winning position.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 12:26:20 PM

popeye1250

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I seriously doubt that Wudy is going to get the nomination.
I think it's much more likely that Romney will get it.
Or, Ron Paul.
Wudy just has too many negatives going against him and he won't take South Carolina, one of the primary states.
Or, New Hampshire either.
It's a toss-up between him and McCain as to which one will bow out first.

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RE: Interesting trend - 10/25/2007 3:12:44 PM

Real0ne

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yanno, people are total idiots for answering polls. I never do.

They use that information to tilt their strategy and sing sweet lullbys to us. Then when they get in we get a scat lunch.

That is nothing more than a vote magnet and has nothing to do with the millions of faxes that we fax into our reps.

They should be running on what informed people want not stirring emotion just to get votes.

< Message edited by Real0ne -- 10/25/2007 3:14:36 PM >

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Democracy; The 'People' voted on 'which' amendment?

Yesterdays tinfoil is today's reality!

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