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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/14/2007 7:20:16 AM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

The average span of time between major earthquakes in the state of California is 25,000 years?

Not sure where you got this data, Sinergy, but you might want to do a bit more research. I pulled this off the first link in a very general sort of quick search.

"Most of the fault ruptures every 200 years, but because of the uncertainty in dating, we cannot tell whether it was one earthquake or a number of closely-timed earthquakes," Fumal said.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050512_quake_cast.html

Damn. And you say the President relied on bad intelligence.....

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/14/2007 9:56:47 AM

Sinergy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

The average span of time between major earthquakes in the state of California is 25,000 years?

Not sure where you got this data, Sinergy, but you might want to do a bit more research. I pulled this off the first link in a very general sort of quick search.

"Most of the fault ruptures every 200 years, but because of the uncertainty in dating, we cannot tell whether it was one earthquake or a number of closely-timed earthquakes," Fumal said.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050512_quake_cast.html

Damn. And you say the President relied on bad intelligence.....

Thank you for the lovely insult, TheHeretic.

While you may not fully comprehend the difference between me and Anencephalyboy, I am not relying and trying to convince others of faulty intelligence so I can rape the United States. I hope your venom against my political views is working for you.

It is something I probably read months or years ago cruising in to the earthquake section of www.usgs.gov if you are interested in seeing for yourself.

According to your statistics, I have a 37.5% chance of being caught in a major earthquake in my lifetime. Would Loma Prieta and Northridge qualify as major earthquakes? Or should I still hold out my paralyzing fear that my ticket will be punched by the next Big One?

Sinergy

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/14/2007 6:27:13 PM

TheHeretic

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You are very welcome, Sinergy.

     The Loma Prieta quake was major, Northridge was strong. These are specific terms when discussing earthquakes (it's in the link). "The Big One," is more of a public awareness, marketing phrase.

     What I think of, in that context, is a "great quake." Magnitude 8.0 and higher. The earth averages one of those in any given year, and California gets our turn about once every 200 years. The last was the Fort Tejon quake of 1857.

      Of course, location can be just as important as magnitude. If the San Andreas fault is in the process of shifting to the eastern part of the state, as some geologists believe, we could get "The Big One" with relatively low numbers in deaths and damages (the 1992 Landers 7.3 might have been a first step towards that). Pour a few beers into a an expert on the subject, and you might be told that the real nightmare scenario for our part of the world isn't an 8+ on the San Andreas, but a domino effect on the smaller faults perpendicular to it. Say, 8 or 9 Northridge (6.7) size events over a few hours or days, each triggering the next.

      Here is a site you might want to take a look at.
http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/index.html
      Just to refresh, since you say you are going off things you remember vaguely after reading many years ago, lots of minor and very minor quakes are totally irrelevant in 'bleeding off' energy for the big ones. You'll see the known faults on that map, but remember, the fault that triggered Northridge was unknown before the quake.

       Sorry I can't be as precise as the Global Warming scientists.

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/14/2007 7:29:02 PM

Sinergy

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Glad it is working for you, pity I am unwilling to take the bait.

Your information seems correct, but the problem with things like "averages an earthquake every 200 years) is that We lack the scientific knowledge base and ability to study them to narrow it down, so I am unlikely to worry about something I had a 37.5% chance of being exposed to during my time here until Loma Prieta.

I have heard different opinions about bleed-off by smaller earthquakes, and I tend to agree with you, I dont think we know enough about what causes them to be able to make a determination. I personally suspect that the mass ice melting in Greenland was somewhat responsible for the sinking of Indonesia 2 years ago, but I am not a zealot about those beliefs about a system as complex as plate tectonics.

Computer modelling was deadly accurate about the number of major earthquakes to hit the East Coast the year New Orleans was sunk. I would worry about that if I lived there. Earthquakes happen in Southern California.

Adapt, improvise, overcome, survive.

"I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer, Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain. " Frank Herbert.

Sinergy

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/14/2007 9:18:02 PM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

I personally suspect that the mass ice melting in Greenland was somewhat responsible for the sinking of Indonesia 2 years ago, but I am not a zealot about those beliefs about a system as complex as plate tectonics.

If I understand what you are saying, you seem to be suggesting that the change of weight distribution on one side of the planet helped trigger the Indonesian earthquake... Interesting. I've heard that enough sea floor lift occurred from that event to cause a worldwide elevation of ocean levels by a couple thousandths of an inch. Gee. Is that how global warming is going to drown us all?

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/15/2007 3:47:26 PM

Sinergy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sinergy

I personally suspect that the mass ice melting in Greenland was somewhat responsible for the sinking of Indonesia 2 years ago, but I am not a zealot about those beliefs about a system as complex as plate tectonics.

If I understand what you are saying, you seem to be suggesting that the change of weight distribution on one side of the planet helped trigger the Indonesian earthquake... Interesting. I've heard that enough sea floor lift occurred from that event to cause a worldwide elevation of ocean levels by a couple thousandths of an inch. Gee. Is that how global warming is going to drown us all?

All factors in a complex system affect the other factors in that complex system in ways which are both obvious and subtle, and modifying extremely small variables can often have overwhelming impacts on a complex system space.

I tend to think global warming zealots make me as nervous as head in the sand global warming opponents. On the other hand, those 36 cubic miles of ice mass lost in the past 10 years from Antarctica had to go somewhere. The ice core samplings going back thousands of years show that modern air samples contain isotopes of carbon dioxide that are formed by burning fossil fuels.

If it is a problem, I suspect the human race should do something to try to clean up the parts of it we can do something about before it is too late.

Seems a more intelligent and wise approach than burying our heads in the sand and hoping the problem goes away.

But that is just me and I could be wrong.

Sinergy

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David St. Hubbins "This Is Spinal Tap"

"Every so often you let a word or phrase out and you want to catch it and bring it back. You cant do that, it is gone, gone forever." J. Danforth Quayle

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/15/2007 3:56:01 PM

Estring

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quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611

quote:

ORIGINAL: ownedgirlie

I agree with you. I grew up in the SF Bay Area, and as long as I can remember, the San Andreas fault was going to sever California into the ocean...

I was watching a special on the Discovery Channel and they said that San Fran is NOT ready for a major quake. Engineers say the city has for many years been building foundations recklessly on unstable ground.

The estimates are that if San Fran is hit with a major quake of above 8.0... that the devastation will be worse than what Hurricane Katrina did to New Orleans. And the roads are in such a way that it would take days or even weeks for help to get to many places.

And that is a bad thing?

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RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/15/2007 5:07:05 PM

BeingChewsie

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Ohhhh Bull!

You are a silly man!

quote:

ORIGINAL: xBullx

Damn Chewsie,

Northern Bangladesh is a wretched place!!!!!!!!!!

The north part of East Pakistan to the old fuckers in the crowd.

Or were you referring to North Bulgaria?

Smirks,

Bull

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Post #: 28

RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/16/2007 6:33:20 AM

BlueCollar

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quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611

Top Seismologist: Southern California Due For Major QuakeCoachella Valley Region is Long Overdue

August 10, 2007 - A top seismologist is warning that another major earthquake is in our future, a big one that could devastate Southern California, from the desert to the sea.

Lucy Jones, of the U.S. Geological Survey says it's not a question of where but when a big quake will strike the Coachella Valley, sandwiched between the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults.
Jones says that region is long overdue, and the seismic clock is ticking.
Jones says a magnitude 7.8 quake or more could collapse major freeways, knock down buildings in Downtown L.A., kill thousands of people and cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.

http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=local&id=5559714

*yawn* Not a day goes by when someone shouts: "the sky is falling!" and expects us all to drop everything and head for the shelter. This long overdue earthquake has been anticipated for over twenty years. If it happens, it happens - but people shouldn't be kept in a constant state of fear and alarm over it.

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Post #: 29

RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/16/2007 7:10:46 AM

TheHeretic

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BlueCollar

If it happens, it happens - but people shouldn't be kept in a constant state of fear and alarm over it.

          I don't think that is the goal, Blue. There is no "if" about major earthquakes in CA. It's just when, and we have no way of knowing that yet. We had a little 'bumper' here very recently, just enough to rattle windows and set off burgalar alarms. That was a reminder to people, and stories like this help drive the point home. Preparation is key to getting through the aftermath.

        It isn't all that hard to maintain a small kit. We drink bottled water anyway, so keeping a few extra cases, and rotating through the stock is simple. When a local grocery store puts Chunky Soup on sale, we stock up. The most common injury after a quake is cuts on the feet from broken glass, so keep a pair of shoes under the bed. With the exception of a crank-powered radio, everything in my kit is something I would use anyway (ok, I hope I never need the #4 buckshot, but it's fun to go out in the desert and kill TV sets once in a while).

       Besides, what is the point of needlessly scaring the population about earthquakes? There aren't any votes to be had from that one.

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Post #: 30

RE: California overdue for major earthquake - 8/16/2007 9:04:38 AM

BlueCollar

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Besides, what is the point of needlessly scaring the population about earthquakes? There aren't any votes to be had from that one.

Oh, I'm not saying it's any politicians that are alarming the public. A lot of "writers" have made some serious cash on the issue, though.

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